[BPt111]

Originally Posted by Cambium

April 12, 2020 Updates:: Lots of graphs!


As always, data comes from here: https://portal.ct.gov/Coronavirus


1st.... Good news!


Hospitalizations continue to drop. Even with the +61 today the 5 day Average is now at 70.





More good news... See it? Total cases is flattening! Hopefully its not the flattening like April 1 & 2. I think this one is real since we have this Stay at Home in place now.


Also note the new daily cases continues to drop! Only +525 today, lowest since April 5th







The bad news...The deaths continue to rise.

Interesting New Haven and Hartford have more than Fairfield county 16 days after the 4th death.. But Fairfield had a big jump starting the 18th day. I'm hoping to see this start leveling off.




Now, a look at the Top 45 most cases. Bridgeport now tied for 2nd place.





Lets look at the cases for the Top 5 towns.


Come on Stamford... Flatten it!





Good job Norwalk! Flattening it out! and Below 5% rate of increases past 5 days.





Come on Bridgeport, you can do better!





Danbury doing good!





New Haven..... what? Wrong way! Come on.





Last one......... Wilton...... Good job!





If you guys want to see a specific city in CT, just let me know! Gimme a few

Waterbury, Hartford, West Haven, Milford, New Britain

[RunD1987]

Originally Posted by Stylo

The higher the R value, the more mild this is, the closer we are to herd immunity. That’s good news, not bad.

The problem with the study you quoted is the data is from China, which cannot be trusted at this point.

Doesn't a higher R value mean it's increasingly contagious

I mean we are putting our finger in the leak at the moment. More leaks come not from the virus with economic impacts on people in the US. If we go back on restrictions the whole barrel will just break water will come rushing in. With we roll back on restrictions people will just start to chip away to.get that water making the barrel bust open. We have nothing to really seal the barrel yet. So we are at the point where we can't guarantee that the letting the water in from one leak is okay. That multiple leaks over an extended period is bad and everything will.eventually rupture.

[Cambium]

testing..

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by RunD1987

Doesn't a higher R value mean it's increasingly contagious

Yes.

It’s amazing how we are collectively ignoring very simple math. And I’m far from a math expert!

Deaths and hospitalizations are the numerator.

A bigger denominator, which you would get with increased contagiousness, makes the denominator much bigger.

A bigger denominator means the mortality and hospitalization rates are lower, and we will get to herd immunity faster.

Good news, however you slice it.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by BPt111

Waterbury, Hartford, West Haven, Milford, New Britain

Keeping it simply just showing the positive cases and the rate of increase...

Waterbury







Hartford





West Haven







Milford







New Britain

[Cambium]

Come on U.S, your turn to drop! Its flattening though .

Is the line representing total cases or 7 day avg of new cases? How can it show both?

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/stat...75545949077506

[ProudFairfielder]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Come on U.S, your turn to drop! Its flattening though .

Is the line representing total cases or 7 day avg of new cases? How can it show both?

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/stat...75545949077506

I think 7 day average

[WouldLoveTo]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Come on U.S, your turn to drop! Its flattening though .

Is the line representing total cases or 7 day avg of new cases? How can it show both?

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/stat...75545949077506

China went back up though

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Stylo

We know more now than we did a month ago. Estimates of a million+ dead are no longer happening for a reason. We now know with almost certainty: the R0 value without distancing is 3+, the amount of asymptomatic cases is around 50%, and the known cases is missing a ton of infected people which brings the mortality rate way down. Even CNN, the doomsday network, is admitting this now!

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...imates-vpx.cnn

Also the “reinfection” cases in Asia, I would bet are actually problems with the tests. But it makes good headlines.

Agree with you on the "reinfection" cases. Also, a month is a lot longer time than people think (we were just starting all the extreme measures just under a month ago....two months ago we were a few days past the Super Bowl!) and we will likely know a lot more a month from now than we can even imagine right now. And I think there is a rapid push to pursue treatments and a vaccine more than at any other time/crisis in human history so we may surprise ourselves on the timing of that. We just have to take things day by day, be careful in our actions and see where it all goes!

Originally Posted by Stylo

Yes.

It’s amazing how we are collectively ignoring very simple math. And I’m far from a math expert!

Deaths and hospitalizations are the numerator.

A bigger denominator, which you would get with increased contagiousness, makes the denominator much bigger.

A bigger denominator means the mortality and hospitalization rates are lower, and we will get to herd immunity faster.

Good news, however you slice it.

This assumes that those who are making the denominator greater are doing so at a lower mortality and hospitalization rate than before. If that is true, then it's good news. If not you are creating a worse situation. Japan and South Korea thought they were doing this and were even going to bring their pro baseball leagues back (without spectators) in late April/early May, but things have gone "up" again (including 3 players on one team in Japan testing positive) and they are freaking out.

That said I think if we are careful about how we restart things, then we will take what we learned to not shut everything down again if we get a "fall relapse". How we do that I don't know, but I don't see us repeating what we have now unless the relapse is deadlier and overwhelming hospitals more than it is now.

[Pike320]

Originally Posted by WouldLoveTo

China went back up though

Best to assume all numbers coming out of China are fictional.