[Lowerdeck]

Originally Posted by Cambium

This winter continues to amaze me. Did any of you see the hail or lightning tonight?

A Text from NWS::

AT 823 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL OVER THOMPSON CONNECTICUT...OR ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PUTNAM CONNECTICUT...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

Last night was just strange. I didn't even think it was supposed to rain yesterday evening, much less have thunderstorms.

My parents never said anything about hail in Thompson.

Meanwhile about 6:30 I was in North Oxford and saw some lightning off to the northwest - about Leicester and Charlton way. About 7:15 or so, me/brother/friend went off to get dinner and it was just starting to rain. By the time we got to Auburn it was pouring. On the Mass Pike it was a thunderstorm. It was mostly over by the time we got to Westboro.

But while I was inside the restaurant, I could see more thunder and lightning outside. I'm guessing that might have been the second round. Could see out the window, but wasn't next to it - couldn't tell if it was raining or not.

Once we left, the rain was done. It was really windy and at least 5-10 degrees colder though. No hail up in Westboro.


And for the love of something, there is no H in Worcester.

[Cambium]

Output for Hartford: Almost half a foot. I dont know about this... I still say 5 inches will be the max anyone will get. Generally 2-4"..Starting 10pm Sunday, snowing heavy for 6 hours, then a changeover to sleet by the coast by 9am..light snow north of meritt after 9am. Ends by Lunch Monday. Main roads wont be a problem at all..They should just stay warm and slushy.

[7 Wishes]

Current forecast per NWS is 1-3" in NYC and LI and all of the CT coast (both because of some expected mixing with sleet and maybe rain during the daytime on Monday and because they think the precip will fall heavier to the north) and 3-6" in the rest of CT (this is actually a change for the CT coast, last night both the NWS and the channel 7 news at 11pm said only NYC, LI and extreme southern Westchester were getting the lesser amounts and 4-6 for all of CT). For the Hartford area, this means you could approach 90" for the whole winter, wow!

The discussion noted how just a slight change in the track could change it in either direction though. The 2nd storm is supposed to miss us and stay to the south, though in the areas it's going to it's supposed to be warm enough to be mostly rain and not much snow.

[Cambium]

Couple of Notes to make:

1. The output above I said was for Hartford is for Windsor. Notice the Code KBDL. Sorry about the typo. New one now showing 7" not 5.5 for Windsor... I still dont think so...

#2. I'm not liking what I'm seeing for Northern CT next week(2-26). Its now showing 7-12" of snow instead of rain. This could change, I hope so because....

#3. HUGE rainstorm 1st week in March with over an inch and a half!

#4. We're here.... There will be storms every 3-4 days for the next 2 weeks.. I'll try to keep things simple when explaining.

#5. Looking back at my posts, tomorrows storm was mentioned 12 days ago and was showing as rain at the time. This is why I'm concerned about the 26th as it has a ton more moisture with it and originally shown as all rain..

Stay tuned. Leave some observations comments for us to hear whats happening around you. Thanks.

[7 Wishes]

OKX just upped the coastal snow totals so it's now a straight 3-5" and a Winter Weather Advisory everywhere!

Interestingly, BOX has LOWERED the Hartford area snow totals to 2-4" (from 4-6") and (I think one was up earlier today) removed the Winter Weather Advisory. I wonder if they see this as more of a coastal snow now.....BOX discussion suggests "bust potential" (their words) and low tracking further south than currently predicted (they see low going in a straight east-west line right at 40-deg N, which means low/center is over Philly and just north of Atlantic City and goes straight east out to sea) and thinks "jackpot zone" (which is still small in snow totals compared to some of our big snows) is really NYC, LI, northern/central NJ and coastal CT ("north of the low without being right over it") and not points further north. I wonder if that means no snow at all for metro Boston.....


UPDATE 5pm: BOX has restored the Winter Weather Advisory for the Hartford and Providence areas but still doesn't have one up for metro Boston.

http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/182448_196820340347289_177148895647767_672938_2961 956_n.jpg (broken link)

[foxywench]

oh yeah...thats right...its still winter *pouts* :P

[mels]

Not quite 2" of snow on the ground in the Glastonbury area but the roads are slick. The roads suck mainly because I am convinced towns don't plow as well when kids aren't in school. As long as the kids are safe, who cares if their parents make it home OK!

I must add, state roads look OK and Rt. 2 was plowed/treated just fine, even the exit and entrance ramps.

[foxywench]

weve got about 2 inches of fresh on the ground right now and asside form the odd flake here and there it seems to have stopped and compared to the winds weve had the past few days everything is VERY calm right now lol
have no idea what the roads are like around here right now, but im not planning on going out today either so...

[Cambium]

The storm over performed mostly West of us dropping 12-15" but seems like my thought of 5" being the max in CT held on even though some data was telling us more.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN ........ 4.6
WEST NORWALK ....... 4.5
STAMFORD ..... 4.0
SHELTON ....... 2.6
BRIDGEPORT ........ 2.2
DANBURY ........ 1.9

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN .... 1.2

edit: Storm tonight will stay to our south and suprisingly bring possibly half foot to some locations in Jersey with snows all the way down to Baltimore maybe even Northern Virginia sees light stuff.

[Cambium]

Timeline of posts for todays storm for my own future informational purpose to look back at how the models performed.

Feb. 9, 2011. 11:22pm . 12 days before

Originally Posted by Cambium

Next up...Feb. 19......Feb. 21....Feb. 25... Dont even fret yet, still way long in future... Only 1 model in the world goes that far out. lol ... That one model on 1 run has 10 inches of snow on the 21st... another run of that model has rain....another run has nothing.... So no point in even talking about it.

Temps will be crucial at this point because of the fluctuations, it will have to be perfect timing to get snows.

If I see something still around for those dates by end of the weekend, I'll let you know.

Feb. 12, 2011. 10:48am. 9 Days Before.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Feb. 21-22 Storm Update:

Last few solutions have it warm so its a rain event with close to an inch. Whats interesting is that another model finally in the timeframe is showing it pass well to our south..

Feb. 13, 2011. 2:14pm. 8 Days before.

Originally Posted by Cambium

February 2011 Storm Updates: (Subject to change)

Feb. 15: Flurries/Snow showers
Feb. 19: Flurries/Snow showers
Feb. 22: Rain on all models currently
Feb. 25: Rain
Feb. 28 Rain to 4 inches of snow(dont hold breath for that snow

Feb. 14, 2011. 9:43pm. 7 Days Before.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Enjoy the quiet week folks. Quick cool down tomorrow then a rebound to 40's and 50s. Then here we go with storms after this week..

~ Slighter Bigger storm on Tuesday like I been saying for 2 weeks now. Its flip flopping between cold and warm, at this moment its rain, to ice to snow on backend. I think Hartford, Tolland & Windham have best chance at 2-4" right now.

Feb. 15, 2011. 9:26am. 6 Days Before.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Wow... ok, ok...I'll let you enjoy the quiet week...

But I'm Dying to tell you what I'm seeing...I'm going to wait until Thursday at least... Dont put your shovels away.

Posted Feb. 17, 2011. 8:12am. 4 Days Before

Originally Posted by Cambium

Good Morning All, I guess I should backup what I been saying with some images and explainations..

This storm on the 22nd started as rain for us as it was passing well north, then it was an ice storm as it started coming south more, the latest has it continuing the south trend and gives us snow in CT.

Going over model by model basis:
2 models: heavy snow over half foot for the state.(6-10")
1 model: mix rain/snow most of the storm
1 model: ice storm
1 model: rain to light snow on backend


The trend has been moving south and most of the models agree on a frozen precip... THE crazy thing at this point is...it could totally miss us if it keep trending south and we get nothing.

Enjoy: I'll have more tonight. All models are in agreement of a storm, now we look for the track.

Posted Feb. 18, 2011. 8:14am. 3 Days Before

Originally Posted by Cambium

Monday-Tuesday Storm Update::

Quick check of things it seems like Connecticut is the fence on this one... There is a storm coming... that we know.....nothing to get worried about (except if its ice)

NAM: 2-4" Danbury, 1-3" elswhere Monday.
GFS: Ice North of Merrit, Rain south of Merrit Monday. Nothing Tuesday(northern MidAtlantic2-4")
Euro: Rain Monday but 2-4" snow widespread Tuesday
DGEX Rain monday, nothing tuesday
NOGAPS: 2-4" Monday, 1-3" Tuesday
JMA: 2-4" Monday