Is high housing price and inflation a big deterrent for relocation now? (Dallas: 2014, home equity)

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

Yes, there ARE significant supply constraints and have been for several years. It is NOT a normal or healthy housing market to have 15 days of inventory. Not even close. If the inventory tripled overnight, it would NOT crash the market. That would still mean every single house selling in 6 weeks which is still a historical low and not a healthy market (that is, it would still be a seller’s market).
.

A normal Inventory would be 5 months. We used to do a search and easily 50-100 or more homes would come up in a narrow price range, then we would sort by what a Client wanted and narrow down to 15-20 houses to show.

Those days are long gone.

In reality it's not even a 15 day supply of homes. Not when you get 15-20-30 offers the first weekend it's on the market.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by Rakin

A normal Inventory would be 5 months. We used to do a search and easily 50-100 or more homes would come up in a narrow price range, then we would sort by what a Client wanted and narrow down to 15-20 houses to show.

Those days are long gone.

In reality it's not even a 15 day supply of homes. Not when you get 15-20-30 offers the first weekend it's on the market.

What is more concerning is that we are going to struggle to ease supply shortage by supply increase. The drop in demand is the only hope.

It's easier to meet 10 pencil demand a day after you shut down your factory for Covid that produced 10 pencils pre covid. You simply returned to previous output and the market supply and demand equalized after initial shortages due to pent up demand that could not be satisfied. Aka people wanting 14 pencils a day initially since their pencil broke and took them off schedule while your plant was shut for Covid.

Its a lot harder to meet 20 pencil demand a day when your factory pre covid made 10 a day, now it is making 11 a day and still no end in sight in demand. You have to almost double your production to meet the new demand.

[jiping]

Why would people relocate to a Frisco McMansion?

I would stick to this lovely house in San Jose, CA.

2B1B 891 sqft, built in 1950, listed for $1,050,000

Redfin Hot Homes: Expected to sell soon, can sell for about 17% above list price and go pending in around 7 days.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/1...5/home/1675477

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by jiping

Why would people relocate to a Frisco McMansion?

I would stick to this lovely house in San Jose, CA.

2B1B 891 sqft, built in 1950, listed for $1,050,000

Redfin Hot Homes: Expected to sell soon, can sell for about 17% above list price and go pending in around 7 days.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/1...5/home/1675477

That is their single life starter home while they finish up High School. They get married, come to Frisco and buy 5 Mcmansions just for 'giggles' to make locals fume.

[ThomasCrown]

We lived in Frisco and moved to Prosper last year, our home in Frisco doubled in price over 7 years. I do think this is going to weigh on relocations eventually. The previous owners of our current home also saw gains of nearly 100% in that same timeframe. What is worrisome is how much longer these increases can continue. We make a healthy household income, but our total income increased about 30% during that same time period. I don't know anyone who has had their income double in that timeframe, and certainly not enough people have experienced that to even begin to have parity with the number of homes that have doubled in price since then. I am starting to think that a correction will happen in the next 2-3 years, as there just won't be enough people left to prop up these high prices that are outstripping wages.

[Gaylord_Focker]

NO. DFW is far more affordable than the coasts and Austin

[DFW_FTW]

Originally Posted by ThomasCrown

We lived in Frisco and moved to Prosper last year, our home in Frisco doubled in price over 7 years. I do think this is going to weigh on relocations eventually. The previous owners of our current home also saw gains of nearly 100% in that same timeframe. What is worrisome is how much longer these increases can continue. We make a healthy household income, but our total income increased about 30% during that same time period. I don't know anyone who has had their income double in that timeframe, and certainly not enough people have experienced that to even begin to have parity with the number of homes that have doubled in price since then. I am starting to think that a correction will happen in the next 2-3 years, as there just won't be enough people left to prop up these high prices that are outstripping wages.

DFW is experiencing a squeeze / melt up and then stagflation after that.

Forget about any sort of corrections or drops.

[Leonard123]

If you just want to look at Frisco in particular, my guess is that demand is tied heavily to Indian immigration. I can't help but wonder if we ended the visa programs, supply and demand would balance, and prices would moderate, at least relative to other areas.

On a broader level, I would be more interested to know, from a psychological and spiritual level, what is driving this sense of desperation and relentlessness as though an opportunity to pay a vast sum of money for an average house in an average neighborhood was akin to winning the lottery. When you look at the buying process, it becomes clear these people are desperate and will stop at nothing. A lot of people lately seem to be doing things just because everyone else is doing them. It's panic buying.

Common sense would dictate people who "reassessed their priorities" to buy a house would reassess them again rather than go through this market madness. To me, the stress of buying in this market seems like a poor trade off. However, the one thing there is no shortage of is people who lack common sense.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by DFW_FTW

DFW is experiencing a squeeze / melt up and then stagflation after that.

Forget about any sort of corrections or drops.

Stagflation requires high unemployment........are you predicting that?

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

If you just want to look at Frisco in particular, my guess is that demand is tied heavily to Indian immigration. I can't help but wonder if we ended the visa programs, supply and demand would balance, and prices would moderate, at least relative to other areas.

On a broader level, I would be more interested to know, from a psychological and spiritual level, what is driving this sense of desperation and relentlessness as though an opportunity to pay a vast sum of money for an average house in an average neighborhood was akin to winning the lottery. When you look at the buying process, it becomes clear these people are desperate and will stop at nothing. A lot of people lately seem to be doing things just because everyone else is doing them. It's panic buying.

Common sense would dictate people who "reassessed their priorities" to buy a house would reassess them again rather than go through this market madness. To me, the stress of buying in this market seems like a poor trade off. However, the one thing there is no shortage of is people who lack common sense.

You relentlessly charge that people who see the local housing landscape differently than you are irrational, lacking in common sense, panic buyers etc.

You aren't the boss, you are the arbiter of nothing outside your home.

________________________

Facts are for decades urban and suburban rent and SFH price trends have been driven by a melange centered around earners above median income, schooling ops for kids and local professional sphere dynamics. That kinda sucks for contextual outsiders but that's the way it is.

1. DFW is one of the richest/highest earning metros on Earth. The Dallas, Plano Irving Metro Division even more so than the rest.
2. Relative to other cities SFH RE around here was undervalued vs. professional incomes net of taxes for decades.
3. Certain areas around here have great schools others garbage schools some middling. Outside oddball cases smart/educated/well employed parents do not send their kids to poor schools if better options are near.
3.1. Most H1-B holders, Asian Americans etc. place very high value on their children's education.

In summation per the above and more people with more money than you who make different decisions than you are not nuts because they violate your life constraints.