Is high housing price and inflation a big deterrent for relocation now? (Dallas: rental, insurance)

[jiping]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

I don't doubt that. My concern is that considering raising prices and if that median household income in Frisco has not gone up from 130K - will feel a pinch. Maybe not now but within couple years as their home ownership costs increase. For example my home insurance this year has gone up considerably apparently due to claims made by 'the freeze'. My car insurance has also gone up 60% because apparently DFW is now one of most dangerous cities to drive in USA. Any work on the house the prices have also gone up.

Its gradual increase that bites away, it does not hit immediately. You feel it when you need to call a handy man that charges double of what 2 years ago. When you need to replace the roof or change your car out.

Like I said, considering all the expenses of living in a SFH in North Suburbs 130K really pays for frugal lifestyle once all these costs increases hit within couple years even if you own your home outright and hopefully don't go on holidays every year or have kids to put through college.

A lot of wishful thinking here.

My house value goes up 50% in the past five years, but my property tax barely changes. Insurance premium is actually lower than last year. I only see people buying more houses, but I never see anyone filing for bankruptcy and foreclosure.

So, you should stop looking at Median HHI or existing homeowners. What matters is the HHI of new buyers. Many companies based on Bay Area or NY are offering remote positions, and $130k for junior and $200k for senior are very common. Nowadays buyers have no problem getting $800k preapproval and offer appraisal waiver (meaning they have stash of cash in hand as well).

Houses (in DFW) is still undervalued because money and everything else are inflated.
In the past five years, Bitcoin rises 10-20x, Nasdaq triples, and SP500 doubles.
The capital gain from house is modest in comparison, if not for the tax advantage.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

You’re confusing a few metrics:

1. The median selling price is not the median home value. The median sales price could very well be $800k right now but that is because there is an extreme scarcity of homes trading on the real estate market. Historically about 5% of homes sell nationally in a given year. A healthy market used to be about 6 months of inventory….I think everyone would be thrilled to get up to 3 months of inventory right now. Frisco has around 80,000 households which would mean 4,000 sales in a year or 333 per month. Healthy inventory would be around 1,000-1,200 homes for sale at any given time. There are currently SEVENTY FIVE homes for sale (many of which are under contract and thus not really available anymore). Frisco needs 13X more homeowners to decide to sell their homes ASAP in order for the market stats to reflect the true median home price. You can’t look at 7% of the picture and know what the other 93% looks like. Frisco’s median home value is probably in the $500k range.

2. No way the median HHI has doubled in two years. There aren’t enough new residents to move the needle THAT much. $260k would make Frisco the highest HHI in all of DFW, above Southlake and Highland Park. Simply not possible with as large a population as Frisco has.


3. Frisco knows it has a housing affordability issue w/r/t service industry workers. Many commute from less expensive nearby suburbs like The Colony, Lewisville, & Carrollton. Or drive further from near Denton or out towards Anna / Melissa / Farmersville. Lack of public transit in CoCo is a problem.

4. Property tax is nowhere near 3% in Frisco or anywhere else in the metroplex, save for Coppell. It’s closer to 2% and many school districts and taxing entities have lowered tax rates in the past year or two because of skyrocketing values. I live in Dallas and our tax rates were just lowered again because the values went up. Also, interest rates have been at all time lows and currently are still at historical low ranges. My first place was over 6% interest in the mid 2000’s. If you finance your home, you will pay a large amount of $$ in interest over 30 years….this has always been true and is irrelevant to this conversation.

I think if you tell an agent to find you median home for $500K in Frisco/Celina/Propsper they will laugh at you.

Regarding property taxes, %3 is over the top I agree. I was envisioning sooner or later increases due to having to pay for teachers salaries that have to be increased to attract talent due to price increases. Prosper and Little Elm if I remember are around %2.5-2.7 or something already.

Even if you magically find that house for $500K which is la-la land. Again, assuming you have 130K HHI and 20% down its $3000 a month mortgage payment. Again, add cars/food/bills and you will be month to month with that 7K net on 130 HHI. I think people completely forego the utter insane costs of keeping a car in DFW and having to have multiple of them in a household.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

Hardly any businesses are paying $10/hr anymore. Most fast food places are $15-18/hr for cashiers right now.

Also, someone making $10/hr is a fool to spend $1000/mo on a car. You can still lease a cheap car like a Honda Civic for $220/mo. Add $200 of gas/tolls + $120 for car insurance and it’s like half of what you’re insisting.

Is that the low mileage lease with 8K miles? Considering you driving from Oklahoma thats going to be used up in 2 months. You also conveniently forego sign up costs of around 3-4K. Lastly full tax price on a lease because this is Texas. So you're paying 6.25% on the full value of the vehicle rather than monthly payment. So even your 'magical' lease that comes out to $540 add another $3k sign up cost and another $1.6K in taxes - all for 10K miles a year which will burn out real fast if you commuting on tollways.

Then on top of that, be sure to leave some cash as for sure the car will get dinged in parking lots so at turn in another grand or so for damages.

I personally have not seen fast food offering 15 to 18 for a cashier yet. Do you mind showing proof? Quick google shows taco bell offering 11-15$ for a team leader.

https://www.indeed.com/q-Taco-Bell-l...3bc26910562ad4

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by jiping

A lot of wishful thinking here.

My house value goes up 50% in the past five years, but my property tax barely changes. Insurance premium is actually lower than last year. I only see people buying more houses, but I never see anyone filing for bankruptcy and foreclosure.

So, you should stop looking at Median HHI or existing homeowners. What matters is the HHI of new buyers. Many companies based on Bay Area or NY are offering remote positions, and $130k for junior and $200k for senior are very common. Nowadays buyers have no problem getting $800k preapproval and offer appraisal waiver (meaning they have stash of cash in hand as well).

Houses (in DFW) is still undervalued because money and everything else are inflated.
In the past five years, Bitcoin rises 10-20x, Nasdaq triples, and SP500 doubles.
The capital gain from house is modest in comparison, if not for the tax advantage.

If you read my post you would actually realize that I was discussing current homeowners in north suburbs. That if their HHI did not increase drastically from $130K they will struggle to afford ownership of their house even if its own outright - let alone as most of them have 30 year notes on $500K mortgage.

Like I said, 130K HHI is about $7K take home with proper contributions. 30 year note on $500K mortgage is about $3.5K all in with bills and new taxes. You have $3.5K left to maintain multiple vehicles/repair home/food bill/going out/kids college/ kids sport activies etc.

[rabbit33]

Originally Posted by jiping

A lot of wishful thinking here.

My house value goes up 50% in the past five years, but my property tax barely changes. ....

Ummm...

Don't think so. How stupid do you think the appraisal districts are?

[75214Dad]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

If you read my post you would actually realize that I was discussing current homeowners in north suburbs. That if their HHI did not increase drastically from $130K they will struggle to afford ownership of their house even if its own outright - let alone as most of them have 30 year notes on $500K mortgage.

Like I said, 130K HHI is about $7K take home with proper contributions. 30 year note on $500K mortgage is about $3.5K all in with bills and new taxes. You have $3.5K left to maintain multiple vehicles/repair home/food bill/going out/kids college/ kids sport activies etc.

Sounds like you need to speak with a financial advisor. Lotta Chicken Little’s on here who must not have had a raise in a long time.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by 75214Dad

Sounds like you need to speak with a financial advisor. Lotta Pollyanna’s on here who must not have had a raise in a long time.

I personally do not. I'm the one who is leaning towards idea that Frisco's HHI has almost doubled to 220K or so. Many people on this forum say that this is radicicolous and impossible. Including TC80 who 'laid it all out' according to you.

[75214Dad]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

I personally do not. I'm the one who is leaning towards idea that Frisco's HHI has almost doubled to 220K or so. Many people on this forum say that this is radicicolous and impossible.

You seem to have no grasp of finances, personal or otherwise (Texas has capped school district taxes, for example). TC80 laid it all out there for you. You should look up rates vs levels.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by 75214Dad

You seem to have no grasp of finances, personal or otherwise (Texas has capped school district taxes, for example). TC80 laid it all out there for you. You should look up rates vs levels.

Imagine calling people with '130K HHI chicken littles who had no raise'. Then thinking that school district cap can not be raised considering there has been an almost %200 increase to the cap level.

[Lz_2022]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

Is that the low mileage lease with 8K miles? Considering you driving from Oklahoma thats going to be used up in 2 months. You also conveniently forego sign up costs of around 3-4K. Lastly full tax price on a lease because this is Texas. So you're paying 6.25% on the full value of the vehicle rather than monthly payment.

I personally have not seen fast food offering 15 to 18 for a cashier yet. Do you mind showing proof? Quick google shows taco bell offering 11-15$ for a team leader.

https://www.indeed.com/q-Taco-Bell-l...3bc26910562ad4

In N Out - Parker/Central the ad is in the window for $17