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They have another card, that is their people. And if the Chinese central command plays their cards right, in a generation China will have huge consumer potential. And as we know here in the USA, consumerism is a large part of economic success.
even if average incomes in china tripled, they'd still have a fraction of the purchasing power of an average U.S. income if ours stayed flat. China is far more than a generation away from having serious consumer potential. Sure, if you buy the #s, they'll eventually surpass us in GDP...but they'll do it having 3 times as many people as we do, and they'll barely surpass us. Our country's economic might isn't going anywhere anytime soon. well beyond 100 years before there's that serious of a landscape change.
I agree not anytime soon. And there remains many ifs, ands, buts and luck. But if China plays its cards right it can happen on a shorter time scale than with the USA. China doesn't need the more natural time of evolution as the USA. No need for a Great Depression or War. Their knowledge of fiat, along with a central control/command type of economy, at a time when our current world economies are more closely interweaved and electronically connected leads me to believe it can happen sooner than say 100 years out. China is right now about at the USA in 1930. And sure they can also develop fits and dips. But longer term I believe it will happen.
This is about the only forum or discussion that I can remember that most posters don't seem to feel China is about to crush the USA somehow!
I agree not anytime soon. And there remains many ifs, ands, buts and luck. But if China plays its cards right it can happen on a shorter time scale than with the USA. China doesn't need the more natural time of evolution as the USA. No need for a Great Depression or War. Their knowledge of fiat, along with a central control/command type of economy, at a time when our current world economies are more closely interweaved and electronically connected leads me to believe it can happen sooner than say 100 years out. China is right now about at the USA in 1930. And sure they can also develop fits and dips. But longer term I believe it will happen.
This is about the only forum or discussion that I can remember that most posters don't seem to feel China is about to crush the USA somehow!
<LOL>
Hey, if you don't believe me, this article pretty much sums it quite well.
This is about the only forum or discussion that I can remember that most posters don't seem to feel China is about to crush the USA somehow!
<LOL>
Because it's not.
Its a communist country, has an imminent population problem, declining advantage in cost of labor (without that cost advantage, the rest of the 1st world could care less about China), and many other problems.
But if the per capita GDP has zero correlation to per capita income then what good is it as an indicator? I am in agreement with you as far as China becoming the leading superpower if nothing changes in the US, but I disagree entirely on the QOL and "middle class" you speak of in china.
Also, if we are comparing per capita GDP of the US in the years following the biggest stock market crash and depression of our nations history to China during an economic boom and leader in global manufacturing, then I think that says more about how robust the US economy is (was?) than it does about the "success" of the Chinese people. China is a government state, the people are just another commodity.
They have another card, that is their people. And if the Chinese central command plays their cards right, in a generation China will have huge consumer potential. And as we know here in the USA, consumerism is a large part of economic success.
Some might argue that consumerism is destroying the US. I think it's partially true. Consumerism in conjunction with manufacturing is the recipe for success (keeps all the money internally). If this happens to Chiina, they will be in an excellent position. Fortunately for us, China has little respect for their people and has only marginally improved in that regard since Mao Zedong era.
"Murica" needs to start producing again, not just purchasing.
Some might argue that consumerism is destroying the US. I think it's partially true. Consumerism in conjunction with manufacturing is the recipe for success (keeps all the money internally). If this happens to Chiina, they will be in an excellent position. Fortunately for us, China has little respect for their people and has only marginally improved in that regard since Mao Zedong era.
"Murica" needs to start producing again, not just purchasing.
China is in the process of pivoting their economy and society. They need to move from their massive crony industrial/infrastructure funding and growth model to the next phase. That being a turn toward the people, supports, environment and consumerism. Of course it will not be easy. In the USA we had WW2 and then phase 2 about 80 years ago. China is approaching that today, and might well be able to compress what we have done in 80 years into a significantly shorter time frame.
Some might argue that consumerism is destroying the US. I think it's partially true. Consumerism in conjunction with manufacturing is the recipe for success (keeps all the money internally). If this happens to Chiina, they will be in an excellent position. Fortunately for us, China has little respect for their people and has only marginally improved in that regard since Mao Zedong era.
"Murica" needs to start producing again, not just purchasing.
Murica is either the largest or one of the largest in terms of manufacturing output in the world. This is often just as overlooked as the fact that China doesn't really hold that much of our debt in terms of total %
Some might argue that consumerism is destroying the US. I think it's partially true. Consumerism in conjunction with manufacturing is the recipe for success (keeps all the money internally). If this happens to Chiina, they will be in an excellent position. Fortunately for us, China has little respect for their people and has only marginally improved in that regard since Mao Zedong era.
"Murica" needs to start producing again, not just purchasing.
Excellent. China is at a phase where they are producing a great deal and they have gained prosperity to consume. That consumption is going to fuel their economy even more. Everywhere, toruism, auto, electronic products, food, education, and international trips and real estate. The Chinese middle class, as weak as some people think, will be the greatest consumers.
Investment in china has produced a middle class and now the middle class spend more. This is quite a classic story of how capitalism works in an emerging economy. Walk around any major American university, you hear Mandarin Chinese all the time. These kids are paying international tuition without loans, and international tuition is much more expensive than domestic.
Just know this. If you think china is powerful and their buying power is a lot today, despite its GDP, it will only get more powerful. You can compare per capita GDP all you want, but it doesn't need to match our per capita GDP for us to feel something. Even if the Chinese middle class are a fraction of their population, it may well exceed the majority of our population. The absolute power is there. They just have more people.
China has been transitioning from making to designing. A lot of American households are using Chinese brands of televisions, air conditioners, computers, etc. they are not foreign brands made in China but natively Chinese brands. China does have quite a range of rising companies and brands. They have plans to upgrade their technological varieties. They will still have manufacturing! They are both manufacturing and service and will try to have that overlap for as long as possible.
When an American product is made and consumed in china most, what makes its offshoring? You make where you consume. If Americans don't buy these products as much, it becomes expensive to make in America and ship to china (reverse shipping) even if labor cost here is not that different from China's. Not to mention, labor cost here is still a lot more expensive. We don't make and we don't consume. We are becoming less relevant.
Look at the millennial generation of the two countries. Chinese millennials have much less debt to start with, graduate from college young, enjoy rising opportunities, and they have a family culture that reduces mortgage burdens on young people. They also have less to worry for their retirement. This frees them to spend, consume, and want. American millennials are buried in debt, live alone with higher housing cost, don't have that down payment, and face a shortage of jobs. Chinese millennials are quite like American baby boomers generation. They were born in the right time. Chinese students educated in America increasingly return to china as that's where the jobs are. They educate their own children to be competitive globally whereas Americans educate their children to be warm and fuzzy "global citizens" working at Indie coffee shops.
Additionally, china will not allow a massive number of immigrants let alone illegal ones. They are focused on getting better economically for their people. America just wants cheaper labor and more votes, neither of which serves the interests of the American people. And listen to this: lots of suckers in this country love it the way it is. China, however, is interested in highly skilled international talent, just not pizza delivery folks. They have those themselves.
America will still be more creative and maybe have the edge in tech innovation. But that doesn't solve the employment plight of so many Americans who are too average to be employed. American success is detached from the quality of life of ordinary Americans. Our overall GDP doesn't hide our depressed towns, broke families, fallen education, ballooning debt and entitlement we can't pay, profit hungry universities, nation less corporations, deteriorating infrastructure, and more and more babies born in poverty.
Investment in china has produced a middle class and now the middle class spend more. This is quite a classic story of how capitalism works in an emerging economy. Walk around any major American university, you hear Mandarin Chinese all the time. These kids are paying international tuition without loans, and international tuition is much more expensive than domestic.
Be interesting to study how many of those kids come from Chinese families that have benefited from cronyism. Wouldn't be surprised if it's > 50%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress
China has been transitioning from making to designing. A lot of American households are using Chinese brands of televisions, air conditioners, computers, etc. they are not foreign brands made in China but natively Chinese brands. China does have quite a range of rising companies and brands. They have plans to upgrade their technological varieties. They will still have manufacturing! They are both manufacturing and service and will try to have that overlap for as long as possible.
Where are these Chinese brand televisions, air conditioners, computers, etc? I have yet to see any of these. They're all American, Japanese, European, South Korean brands.
They're infamous for stealing others designs. I cannot think of a mainstream or remotely mainstream Chinese design.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress
Look at the millennial generation of the two countries. Chinese millennials have much less debt to start with, graduate from college young, enjoy rising opportunities, and they have a family culture that reduces mortgage burdens on young people. They also have less to worry for their retirement. This frees them to spend, consume, and want. American millennials are buried in debt, live alone with higher housing cost, don't have that down payment, and face a shortage of jobs. Chinese millennials are quite like American baby boomers generation. They were born in the right time. Chinese students educated in America increasingly return to china as that's where the jobs are. They educate their own children to be competitive globally whereas Americans educate their children to be warm and fuzzy "global citizens" working at Indie coffee shops.
I'll take a wild guess... shooting for the stars here as to why Chinese students have much less debt...
Cost of living are different? Foreign concept... I graduated a year ago, earn the average wage for a year of a private sector Chinese person in 20 days.
China still has whole empty cities.
They have a lot to worry about for retirement. They're facing a baby boomer problem worse than we are, without the social safety nets we have.
A lot of people seem to think China, still a communist nation, is such a great place, not surprising as Americans are known for their doom and gloom. For some reason, I doubt many (if any) have actually visited China.
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