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I agree with this. And thus I'm miserable and very apprehensive about the future. First Im an airline pilot so I fear for my entire career. It may be over for good soon. Then, I have a tremendous love of travel and that's off the table outside of work. Also my wife and I *love* music festivals..and yeah those are gone for who know how long. This has turned my life upside down. Im scared to my core of where I'll be one year from now.
Those things will come back, within 2 years probably, and 3 years certainly.
But I can't say for certain what will happen in the meantime. That's the scary part.
Stocks - companies are reporting Q1 but the true blunt of Covid will be felt when Q2 earnings are released. This may trigger a deeper bear market in equities.
Inflation - Inflation may be subdued due to plunging oil prices, which may keep interest rates low.
Residential Real Estate - Just a wild guess, but I think pricey areas close to a major metropolis are the most vulnerable (at least in the Los Angeles are that i'm familiar with). Covid will have lasting effects on teleworking, and even a 10% increase in teleworking means 10% fewer buyers of expensive homes near major metropolitan areas. Those same people can opt for more open space, better schools, and newer homes in the suburbs and exurbs. For example, a modest house in West Los Angeles is easily in the $1.5M range, but if that same buyer now has the teleworking option then he can buy an equal sized house in a suburb 30 miles away for half the price and with lower crime, less traffic, and better public schools.
Commercial Real Estate - Retail will take a hit but I see the bigger declines in office space. Again, due to my expectation that teleworking will be substantially more common and accepted after we get over this pandemic.
earnings expectations are already so low that meeting or beating expectations 2nd qtr may not be hard if things are just less bad. remember wall street is a game ... it is only about meeting or beating the estimates no matter how bad those estimates already are
Short memory huh? Ever wonder why the Irish emigrated to the New World. Boston and NY? Potato famine. Year without a Summer. Solar Minimum food shortage. Not end of days BS but it will happen.
Something having happened once, long before modern farming techniques greatly reduced environmental variability and massively increased efficiency in crop yield, doesn't mean that historical fact becomes a catch all where any economic crisis should be viewed as coming starvation.
We will be entering a period of global cooling which will have a negative effect on crop yields. I am not a gloom and doomer or someone who believes in the end of days prophecies.
The Irish Potato Famine was not a one off. Famines have happened before.
My anecdotal experience is different. Nothing has changed for me, I'm retired, steady source of income, two of my adult children have in the last 10 days been offered 6 figure jobs with start dates in May. Both had been out of the workforce for at least 8 months, so everyone's results may vary.
3 of my friends that have lost their jobs recently that were "essential". 2 physicians and a nurse. You were saying?
Yep, that's definitely an issue right now. Hospitals are putting other procedures and surgeries on hold right now to prepare for a possible upsurge in patients due to the virus. Unfortunately, these other procedures and surgeries are big money makers for the hospitals, without these surgeries and procedures going on, they have had to lay off staff. It is a very weird situation right now.
My anecdotal experience is different. Nothing has changed for me, I'm retired, steady source of income, two of my adult children have in the last 10 days been offered 6 figure jobs with start dates in May. Both had been out of the workforce for at least 8 months, so everyone's results may vary.
Out of the workforce for 8 months and were still offered those positions? That's awesome, they are very fortunate.
Something having happened once, long before modern farming techniques greatly reduced environmental variability and massively increased efficiency in crop yield, doesn't mean that historical fact becomes a catch all where any economic crisis should be viewed as coming starvation.
What you are stating is exactly end of days BS.
See, now why do you have to bring up these facts lol? I guess anything is conceivable, but a famine due to low crop yield in industrialized nations is unlikely. I do believe a lot of doomers and gloomers really try to oversell things that aren't happening. They try to connect too many dots.
My doom and gloom for these times will be lagging economic growth, coupled with negative interest rates to try to stimulate growth. I'm a saver, so I'm not a fan of negative interest rates. I understand that countries of western Europe have had negative interest rates since the last recession, but it is something that I hope we don't institute in the U.S. It is evident that the Fed can continue to prop up the market, as long as their is still international faith in the dollar and it remains the world reserve currency.
Out of the workforce for 8 months and were still offered those positions? That's awesome, they are very fortunate.
Kind of odd they were out of the workforce 8 months. Must have been by choice as the economy was great before Covid 19
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