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OP doesn't want us to use national polls. That show Obama with a 4-8 point lead.
He wants us to go with a kooky, tin foil hat, right wing, website that shows Romney with an 8 point lead!.......LOL
Yeah!
Here is the problem-
Polls use data from the previous election in order to "weight" the responses of those being polled. 2008 was a very unusual year, in that we had a very large relative turn out for minorities, younger people, and lower income voters.
The current polls sample the percentages from the previous election (2008) to make inferences about a proper "sample" of the electorate. Such a mechanism, given the extraordinary composition of the electorate in 2008, gives a very skewed "pro Obama" weighting which is not reflective of what will be the composition of voters in 2012.
The minorities, young voters, and the poor are not going to show up in the numbers seen in 2008. There is little enthusiasm for Obama, as he has failed dismally in his economic performance.
Gravis poll asked 33% more Dems, and got a 1% edge for Obama....
Marist poll asked 28% more Dems, and got a 7% edge for Obama....
Columbus Dispatch poll asked 1% more Republicans than Dems, and found them tied (actually, they said, Romney was 0.22% ahead, a tiny amount). This is the first poll I've seen, taken anywhere by anyone at any time, that asked more Republicans(688) than Democrats(681).
No *yawn.* There are actually MORE Democrats than Republicans in the population, so it's pretty hard to do a poll without sampling a higher number of Democrats.
little padcrasher, don't you ever get tired of being proven wrong, every time? Your 0-for-everything record would probably embarrass somebody who was capable of embarrassment.
No *yawn.* There are actually MORE democrats than republicans in the population, so it's pretty hard to do a poll without sampling a higher number of democrats.
I doubt Romney is up by these margins even his internal polls show a tighter race in Ohio but Obama up 8 in Ohio is laughable. I'm somewhat surprised the Washington Post and ABC are running with it as news.
I'm somewhat surprised the Washington Post and ABC are running with it as news.
I'm not surprised by anything ABC and the WP do to boost Obama.
Saddened at the levels they've fallen to, but not surprised by them.
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