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He won just 557 electoral votes, 17 above the minimum required (in 2 races), and did so with 44% of the Latino vote.
With the GOP dropping 17% of that Latino share, Obama won with a total of 157 electoral votes to spare (2 races).
In short, the GOP cannot win POTUS w/o regaining Latino share lost. They have won less than 39% of electoral college in 24 years. They have no EC votes to spare! NONE!!!!,
Anglo whites are still MOST Americans. Too; if looking at people of voting AGE, we're even a bigger majority, I ain't that worried especially with Obama's poor rep which WILL hurt a "Hillary". She's to Obama what McCain was to Bush 43 IMHO back in 2008.
Anglo whites accounted for less than 10% of the margin in popular votes -Obama v Romney. 4.6 mill Latino margin; 5 mill overall = 400k non Latino margin Obama v Romney.
BW whites vote Democratic; RW poor rural whites vote GOP. Those offset each other.
"Second, only 10 million Latinos voted in the last election and their votes are a drop in the bucket compared to all non-Latino voters. It is blacks and liberal whites that will carry the Democrats to victory not Latinos."
Bingo. As I've mentioned before, Romney could've carried 50% of the non-black/white vote (i.e., Hispanic/Asian/other) and he still would've (narrowly) lost. Likewise, I think there's a tendency to minimize the electoral salience of white liberals or regard them as a dying species. No, there wouldn't be a Democratic Party in New England or the Upper Midwest without them, and if voting patterns persist, whites may trend increasingly Democratic in the coming years:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*On a personal note, see that left-leaning bulge at the top of the graphic (roughly, those born between 1983 and 1987)? Yeah, that's my generation, and it illustrates how the political/economic climate during one's early adulthood shapes one's partisan identity (often permanently). Basically, we're old enough to remember peace 'n' prosperity in the late-90's, we started voting in the midst of the Bush Administration's epic implosion (~2004-08), and we graduated from college right around the time of the Great Recession (awesome job market, bro). So yeah, that bulge is going to be there for quite some time.
Last edited by drishmael; 05-04-2015 at 06:52 AM..
"... I ain't that worried especially with Obama's poor rep which WILL hurt a "Hillary". She's to Obama what McCain was to Bush 43 IMHO back in 2008."
Pardon my bluntness, but this is the same hermetically-sealed self-delusion that crashed & burned on 6 November, 2012. Obama's job approval rating is currently ~45%. In the early months of 2012, it was ~45%.
Assuming the economy continues to mend, he may cross the 50% threshold prior to leaving office. But either way, somewhere in the neighborhood of 48% of the electorate is primed to vote for his Democratic successor come hell/high-water. In contrast, in the fall of 2008, President Bush's approval rating was 25%. That's historically awful, and it doesn't do the GOP any good to pretend that the current environment is in any way comparable. You may feel that Barack Obama is the Carter/Nixon of the era, but for the majority of the electorate, that president is G.W. Bush.
Here's another way of looking at it: political operatives are not stupid. Did Bush appear at the RNC and give a speech on behalf of John McCain or Mitt Romney? No. In 2016, barring some unforeseen calamity, will Obama appear at the DNC and give a speech on behalf of Hillary Clinton? Almost certainly.
Last edited by drishmael; 05-04-2015 at 07:01 AM..
He won just 557 electoral votes, 17 above the minimum required (in 2 races), and did so with 44% of the Latino vote.
With the GOP dropping 17% of that Latino share, Obama won with a total of 157 electoral votes to spare (2 races).
In short, the GOP cannot win POTUS w/o regaining Latino share lost. They have won less than 39% of electoral college in 24 years. They have no EC votes to spare! NONE!!!!,
I think anybody that analyzes the Presidential election knows that Republicans need to draw more like what George W drew or more of the Latino vote to win. I do think Rubio in particular and possibly Cruz and Jeb Bush can draw that much.
Anglo whites accounted for less than 10% of the margin in popular votes -Obama v Romney. 4.6 mill Latino margin; 5 mill overall = 400k non Latino margin Obama v Romney.
BW whites vote Democratic; RW poor rural whites vote GOP. Those offset each other.
Latino vote isn't offset.
For those Republicans who try to minimize the importance of the Blue Wall by taking solace in the fact that historically the winner of the national popular vote wins the Presidency, the data you cited from the 2012 election pretty well refutes that. Most of Obama's national vote margin was provided by Hispanics, who favored him over Romney by a margin of 70-30. Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnic bloc of voters by far, and their increased share of the vote in the future is not a matter dependent on turnout, but rather on generational replacement. The average non-Hispanic voter is roughly 15 years older than the average Hispanic voters. As a mostly white electorate slowly departs this vail of tears, they are being replaced by a more diverse electorate. Turnout can hasten or delay that change on the margins, but it can't reverse it.
You're also spot on in describing just how narrow an electoral base that W's 2 wins were based upon. He won 2 elections with a total of 17 more than the minimum of 270 (271 in 2000 and 286 in 2004). In both elections he carried 6 states that are closely contested now; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. In the last 2 elections, the GOP has lost 11 of those 12 contests, with Romney prevailing in 2012 in North Carolina by 2%.
North Carolina
Of those 6 critical states, the GOP is in the best shape in North Carolina, which they have only lost twice since 1964; to Carter in 1976 and Obama in 2008. Romney carried it by 2% while losing nationally by 4%, so it favored the GOP by nearly 6%. As the most Republican leaning state of the battlegrounds, it needs to be carried by the GOP by probably a minimum of 7.5 to 8%, because the margin here is likely to be greater than in Florida, Ohio, Virginia or Colorado. In 2000, the networks called NC for Bush at 7:58 pm, less than 30 minutes after the polls closed. In 2004, it took a little longer, but Bush was declared the winner at 8:22. The longer election night 2016 goes past 9 pm without NC being called, the longer the odds that the Republican candidate has of winning. Winning NC gives the GOP all of the Romney states and 206 electoral votes.
Florida
Historically, Florida is the Republicans' next best shot. It has split evenly during the last 6 elections with an average margin of less than half of a percentage point Democratic (D+ 0.41%). In 2012, the white non-Hispanic vote in Florida accounted for 65.3% of the total vote. In 2016, it is projected to drop to 61.7%. Florida's Hispanic population jumped 57% from 2000 to 2010 with most of that growth among non-Cuban Hispanics. Cuban-Americans account for only about 31% of Florida's Hispanic population. The fastest group of the non-Cuban Hispanics are Puerto Ricans who vote heavily Democratic, much to the chagrin of the Republican county chair in Sarasota who was quoted in this article in the Sarasota Sun.
Here's a link to a Florida political blog that gives some interesting numbers on how races in Florida are battles between different metro areas in the state, with the GOP strength in the North and the Dems in Southeast Florida. Hillsborough County (Tampa) is usually a critical factor. The last time it wasn't carried by the winning side was when Calvin Coolidge won in 1924.
With North Carolina and Florida, the Republican candidate has 235 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Without them, the GOP has no viable path to victory.
Ohio
If any of the 6 aforementioned Bush states are trending favorably to the GOP, it's probably Ohio. Ohio is, and will remain, a whiter state than the national average and has a high percentages of older white non-college voters. That's all relative though. No state is actually getting whiter. Ohio's percentage of votes cast by non-Hispanic whites dropped 7% in the 8 years elapsing between the elections of 2004 and 2012. In the past 6 elections, Ohio has gone with the winner each time, averaging D + 1.69%.
With Ohio's 18 electoral votes added to the Red Wall base vote, plus North Carolina and Florida, the GOP has 253 of the 270 votes needed.
Virginia
If any state is ground zero for the 2016 Presidential Election, it's Virginia. After voting Republican in every election from 1968 through 2004, it was carried by Barack Obama in 2008 by much less than his national margin and in 2012 by roughly equalizing his national margin. The Old Dominion is being politically transformed by the growth of NOVA and the decline of Republican SW Virginia. In the past 20 years the population of NOVA has grown by 52% with the population of Loudon County nearly quadrupling. In 2012, NOVA accounted for 28% of Virginia's total vote and Obama won there by 61-39% ; In the rest of Virginia, Romney won 52-48% with a plurality of 94,000 In 2012 white voters comprised 70% of the vote and broke +24 for Romney (61-37%); Obama won the state by 3.9%, mirroring the national results, and 149,000 votes.
With North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and the 13 electoral votes of Virginia, the GOP would have 266 of the needed 270 electoral votes and a win in any other state would put them over the top. A loss for either side here would hurt, but it's probably a little more critical for the GOP, assuming that the tipping order of states stays roughly the same, because from this point on every state voted more Democratic in 2012 than the national average.
Colorado
split evenly in the last 6 Elections; last 6 election average margin= D +0.1983% (less than 1/5 of 1 percent); In 2012 whites made up 78% of the electorate and favored Romney by 10%. Obama won the state in 2012 by about 5.3%;The Denver/Boulder area and their suburbs (the fastest growing area of the state) cast 57% of Colorado's popular vote in 2012 and favored Obama by 21%. From 2004 to 2012 the percentage of votes cast by non-Hispanic whites dropped 8%. The Hispanic population in Colorado is about 21%. Key Democratic voting groups are minorities and college graduates. The populous Denver suburb counties of Arapaho, Jefferson and Latimer were all carried by Obama by at least 5%. In 2014, Republican Cory Gardner carried Latimer over Mark Udall and came within a point or two in the other two, which helped carry him to a win in Colorado's Senate election. How they fall in 2016 may well be critical.
Nevada
NV (6 EV) D in 4 of the last 6 elections; average in the last 6 elections is D+ 2.78%, but Obama's 2 wins were by far the largest margins (D+9.69%); between 2008 and 2012 the percentage of the electorate comprised by minority voters increased by 8% (2% on average per year); in 2012 white voters comprised 64% of the vote and Romney carried them by 13%; Obama carried the state overall by 6+% and about 65,000 votes; Las Vegas metro includes 72% of state population; Clark County (Las Vegas) alone accounted for 68% of the state's total popular vote and Obama carried it by 14+%; Hispanic voter registrations in Nevada are increasing at a rate of 4 times the national average. The percentage of voters comprised by whites dropped 13% from 2004 to 2012, which is the largest drop nationally. Unless the GOP can start performing better with Hispanics, this appears to be the most difficult of the 6 key states.
These are most likely the states that will decide the winner in 2016. If it proves to be a big year for one side or the other, a few more states could fall, but it's likely to go through these states first.
Some of the states that Dubya could depend on are much dicier than they were in 2004. While states that were already safely Red in 2004 are even more crimson now, that doesn't effect the electoral college math at all.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 05-04-2015 at 02:29 PM..
The Republican Party is in huge trouble because they are having to defend states that just a few years ago they could count on. Ohio and Florida have long been battlegrounds. Bush could count on Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado. As the electorate becomes more diverse, younger, and less evangelical, even more once-safe Republican states will become purple. Georgia is next. Arizona won't be far behind. Republicans also need to keep an eye on Texas. It's currently safe for the GOP but people are flocking to DFW, Austin, and Houston in droves from the coast and these people lean Democratic. Republicans are in danger of losing Texas the same way they lost Virginia. Once Texas goes blue, the GOP will be over. Keep in mind there isn't a single traditionally blue state trending more Republican. The only places Republicans are gaining ground are in already deep red rural Southern states that aren't in play to begin with.
Bottom line is for Republicans to win, they can only afford to lose ONE of the battleground states Bush won in 2004 and it cannot be Florida. That is a HUGE problem for the GOP and it's why winning in 2016 for them is all but impossible.
Last edited by bawac34618; 05-04-2015 at 05:24 PM..
For those Republicans who try to minimize the importance of the Blue Wall by taking solace in the fact that historically the winner of the national popular vote wins the Presidency, the data you cited from the 2012 election pretty well refutes that. Most of Obama's national vote margin was provided by Hispanics, who favored him over Romney by a margin of 70-30. Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnic bloc of voters by far, and their increased share of the vote in the future is not a matter dependent on turnout, but rather on generational replacement. The average non-Hispanic voter is roughly 15 years older than the average Hispanic voters. As a mostly white electorate slowly departs this vail of tears, they are being replaced by a more diverse electorate. Turnout can hasten or delay that change on the margins, but it can't reverse it.
You're also spot on in describing just how narrow an electoral base that W's 2 wins were based upon. He won 2 elections with a total of 17 more than the minimum of 270 (271 in 2000 and 286 in 2004). In both elections he carried 6 states that are closely contested now; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. In the last 2 elections, the GOP has lost 11 of those 12 contests, with Romney prevailing in 2012 in North Carolina by 2%.
North Carolina
Of those 6 critical states, the GOP is in the best shape in North Carolina, which they have only lost twice since 1964; to Carter in 1976 and Obama in 2008. Romney carried it by 2% while losing nationally by 4%, so it favored the GOP by nearly 6%. As the most Republican leaning state of the battlegrounds, it needs to be carried by the GOP by probably a minimum of 7.5 to 8%, because the margin here is likely to be greater than in Florida, Ohio, Virginia or Colorado. In 2000, the networks called NC for Bush at 7:58 pm, less than 30 minutes after the polls closed. In 2004, it took a little longer, but Bush was declared the winner at 8:22. The longer election night 2016 goes past 9 pm without NC being called, the longer the odds that the Republican candidate has of winning. Winning NC gives the GOP all of the Romney states and 206 electoral votes.
Florida
Historically, Florida is the Republicans' next best shot. It has split evenly during the last 6 elections with an average margin of less than half of a percentage point Democratic (D+ 0.41%). In 2012, the white non-Hispanic vote in Florida accounted for 65.3% of the total vote. In 2016, it is projected to drop to 61.7%. Florida's Hispanic population jumped 57% from 2000 to 2010 with most of that growth among non-Cuban Hispanics. Cuban-Americans account for only about 31% of Florida's Hispanic population. The fastest group of the non-Cuban Hispanics are Puerto Ricans who vote heavily Democratic, much to the chagrin of the Republican county chair in Sarasota who was quoted in this article in the Sarasota Sun.
Here's a link to a Florida political blog that gives some interesting numbers on how races in Florida are battles between different metro areas in the state, with the GOP strength in the North and the Dems in Southeast Florida. Hillsborough County (Tampa) is usually a critical factor. The last time it wasn't carried by the winning side was when Calvin Coolidge won in 1924.
With North Carolina and Florida, the Republican candidate has 235 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Without them, the GOP has no viable path to victory.
Ohio
If any of the 6 aforementioned Bush states are trending favorably to the GOP, it's probably Ohio. Ohio is, and will remain, a whiter state than the national average and has a high percentages of older white non-college voters. That's all relative though. No state is actually getting whiter. Ohio's percentage of votes cast by non-Hispanic whites dropped 7% in the 8 years elapsing between the elections of 2004 and 2012. In the past 6 elections, Ohio has gone with the winner each time, averaging D + 1.69%.
With Ohio's 18 electoral votes added to the Red Wall base vote, plus North Carolina and Florida, the GOP has 253 of the 270 votes needed.
Virginia
If any state is ground zero for the 2016 Presidential Election, it's Virginia. After voting Republican in every election from 1968 through 2004, it was carried by Barack Obama in 2008 by much less than his national margin and in 2012 by roughly equalizing his national margin. The Old Dominion is being politically transformed by the growth of NOVA and the decline of Republican SW Virginia. In the past 20 years the population of NOVA has grown by 52% with the population of Loudon County nearly quadrupling. In 2012, NOVA accounted for 28% of Virginia's total vote and Obama won there by 61-39% ; In the rest of Virginia, Romney won 52-48% with a plurality of 94,000 In 2012 white voters comprised 70% of the vote and broke +24 for Romney (61-37%); Obama won the state by 3.9%, mirroring the national results, and 149,000 votes.
With North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and the 13 electoral votes of Virginia, the GOP would have 266 of the needed 270 electoral votes and a win in any other state would put them over the top. A loss for either side here would hurt, but it's probably a little more critical for the GOP, assuming that the tipping order of states stays roughly the same, because from this point on every state voted more Democratic in 2012 than the national average.
Colorado
split evenly in the last 6 Elections; last 6 election average margin= D +0.1983% (less than 1/5 of 1 percent); In 2012 whites made up 78% of the electorate and favored Romney by 10%. Obama won the state in 2012 by about 5.3%;The Denver/Boulder area and their suburbs (the fastest growing area of the state) cast 57% of Colorado's popular vote in 2012 and favored Obama by 21%. From 2004 to 2012 the percentage of votes cast by non-Hispanic whites dropped 8%. The Hispanic population in Colorado is about 21%. Key Democratic voting groups are minorities and college graduates. The populous Denver suburb counties of Arapaho, Jefferson and Latimer were all carried by Obama by at least 5%. In 2014, Republican Cory Gardner carried Latimer over Mark Udall and came within a point or two in the other two, which helped carry him to a win in Colorado's Senate election. How they fall in 2016 may well be critical.
Nevada
NV (6 EV) D in 4 of the last 6 elections; average in the last 6 elections is D+ 2.78%, but Obama's 2 wins were by far the largest margins (D+9.69%); between 2008 and 2012 the percentage of the electorate comprised by minority voters increased by 8% (2% on average per year); in 2012 white voters comprised 64% of the vote and Romney carried them by 13%; Obama carried the state overall by 6+% and about 65,000 votes; Las Vegas metro includes 72% of state population; Clark County (Las Vegas) alone accounted for 68% of the state's total popular vote and Obama carried it by 14+%; Hispanic voter registrations in Nevada are increasing at a rate of 4 times the national average. The percentage of voters comprised by whites dropped 13% from 2004 to 2012, which is the largest drop nationally. Unless the GOP can start performing better with Hispanics, this appears to be the most difficult of the 6 key states.
These are most likely the states that will decide the winner in 2016. If it proves to be a big year for one side or the other, a few more states could fall, but it's likely to go through these states first.
Some of the states that Dubya could depend on are much dicier than they were in 2004. While states that were already safely Red in 2004 are even more crimson now, that doesn't effect the electoral college math at all.
It's too late to edit my post, and I needed to add one caveat regarding Nevada. The six states I highlighted are competitive states that George W. Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004. Five of those states remained the 5 closest states in 2012; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. There were 3 other states that were closer than Nevada (+D 6.68%) though; Pennsylvania (+D 5.42%), New Hampshire (+D 5.58%) and Iowa (+D 5.81%). In 2012, Romney's campaign invested in the Nevada media market, possibly hoping that Nevada's Mormon population would give him a boost. Unless the GOP nominee feels he has a shot of turning Nevada's Hispanic vote, we could see states like Iowa or Pennsylvania getting more financial investment and Nevada getting less attention.
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