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HC will outperform Obama in Pa; while Dems own more urban Pa, Hillary outperformed Obama in western Pa. W/O massive margins in non urban Pa, GOP would be foolish to contest the state. It would not be winnable for them.
HC will outperform Obama in Pa; while Dems own more urban Pa, Hillary outperformed Obama in western Pa. W/O massive margins in non urban Pa, GOP would be foolish to contest the state. It would not be winnable for them.
I tend to agree with you, but Nevada isn't very promising either. They're running out of good options, as you have stated on numerous occasions.
Long-term options are actually a bit on the contrarian side. IMO the GOP , not now, but building for a POTUS win 10-20 years away, would be wiser to seek trying harder in the lower margin portion of BW states, forgoing the recent red-blue state conversions. The latter are being driven more solidly blue via demographics, while the BW has several states with less draconian demographic headwinds pushing the GOP back.
Example: NOVA is nowhere near cresting yet, and when it does, I expect Va margins to be bigger for the Dems than NJ at times. As you stated well, while NOVA is growing , the red parts of Va are either stagnant or receding. That doubles down the trend to blue in Va.
Long-term options are actually a bit on the contrarian side. IMO the GOP , not now, but building for a POTUS win 10-20 years away, would be wiser to seek trying harder in the lower margin portion of BW states, forgoing the recent red-blue state conversions. The latter are being driven more solidly blue via demographics, while the BW has several states with less draconian demographic headwinds pushing the GOP back.
Example: NOVA is nowhere near cresting yet, and when it does, I expect Va margins to be bigger for the Dems than NJ at times. As you stated well, while NOVA is growing , the red parts of Va are either stagnant or receding. That doubles down the trend to blue in Va.
I agree with this.
2024 or possibly 2028 will be the soonest election where a GOP candidate actually has a chance, unless the Democrats find themselves in a Nixon-like situation and the country loses faith in the party. There isn't a realistic path to 270 for them today. One thing is by 2028, culture war issues that are currently plaguing the GOP should no longer be issues. For instance, I doubt a lot of people will be talking about gay marriage in the 2028 election cycle. That will make it easier for the GOP to make inroads in places where today they don't stand a chance.
The majority of Hispanics are very religious.
Ted Cruz has proved he can pull the Hispanic and Latino votes.
The truth is rather compelling, when your candidate has no dirt to confuse the voters with.
Hillary, has a lot of dirt and in the catholic church, the woman always walks behind the man.
Ted Cruz has proven that he isn't going to pull enough Hispanic/Latino votes. When he's only pulling 35% of Texas Hispanics, you said it yourself that many Texas Hispanics are very conservative, he is in trouble. He doesn't stand a chance at winning the nomination though so it is all a moot point.
Ted Cruz has proven that he isn't going to pull enough Hispanic/Latino votes. When he's only pulling 35% of Texas Hispanics, you said it yourself that many Texas Hispanics are very conservative, he is in trouble. He doesn't stand a chance at winning the nomination though so it is all a moot point.
In the Senate race in a Presidential election year, he pulled 56% of the hispanic vote, against all odds
One thing is by 2028, culture war issues that are currently plaguing the GOP should no longer be issues. For instance, I doubt a lot of people will be talking about gay marriage in the 2028 election cycle. That will make it easier for the GOP to make inroads in places where today they don't stand a chance.
We've been talking about abortion since the early 70's, more than 40 years ago. The problem is that it was imposed by the Supreme Court, just as gay marriage is being legislated by the courts today. Opponents aren't likely to readily accept the concept as the people never ratified it.
But that is NOT the problem that the GOP faces long term, its that their platform opposes high taxes, and supports decreased government social programs. With more and more people- including the 11 million or so immigrant dreamers entering the road to citizenship, the demand for increased social programs and the number of people dependent on them will rise to new heights.
He won just 557 electoral votes, 17 above the minimum required (in 2 races), and did so with 44% of the Latino vote.
With the GOP dropping 17% of that Latino share, Obama won with a total of 157 electoral votes to spare (2 races).
In short, the GOP cannot win POTUS w/o regaining Latino share lost. They have won less than 39% of electoral college in 24 years. They have no EC votes to spare! NONE!!!!,
So, you are the new elections analyst pundit on the block? And your credentials are ...?
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