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The Republican Party will be a local party in certain Southern states (like Oklahoma) for the foreseeable future. They don't have a chance at winning a national election. Why? It's simple. Their agenda of returning America to the good ole' 1950s doesn't sell anymore outside rural Southern congressional districts. This country has changed. They are completely out of touch with 70% of the American population.
My how interesting is your response; how could they be out of touch with 70% of the American people and still haves so many governors (not only in the south) and control the house and senate? If they are out of step with so many wouldn't you think the dems would win elections by a bigger margan than they do? And btw, I know you live in OK, so I would think you would realize, although tech a southern state when people think of southern they think Carolinas, Al, La, Mississippi, etc. Ok is barely a southern state. How many people do you know from OK that have deep southern accents?
The white vote percentage has declined in every presidential election since 1984, with the exception of 1992. Obama didn't start it, and his departure from the ballot won't stop it.
Sorry, the number of blacks that voted in 2008 and 12 (fewer in 12) in numbers were much higher than in years before he was running. The number of voters as well as % and the overall % voting period has declined.
Sorry, the number of blacks that voted in 2008 and 12 (fewer in 12) in numbers were much higher than in years before he was running. The number of voters as well as % and the overall % voting period has declined.
Its not the black folks the Republicans need to worry about. It's all the other minorities that have been beaten up since the turn of the century, and the once-indifferent young voters who are no longer apathetic to politics.
I tend to think that a lot of formerly conservative women may also be changing their politics as well. The GOP has not been kind to women for quite a while lately. That includes women of all colors and cultures.
The thing you seem to be counting on is voter indifference. Maybe it exists, but if it does, I still hear a lot more folks talking about politics now than at any time during the 20th century. I wouldn't be counting on a low turnout at all in 2016. It's going to be a wide open election, with no incumbents on either side. I doubt voters will be indifferent to an election that could well set the course of the United States for most of a decade to come.
Its not the black folks the Republicans need to worry about. It's all the other minorities that have been beaten up since the turn of the century, and the once-indifferent young voters who are no longer apathetic to politics.
I tend to think that a lot of formerly conservative women may also be changing their politics as well. The GOP has not been kind to women for quite a while lately. That includes women of all colors and cultures.
The thing you seem to be counting on is voter indifference. Maybe it exists, but if it does, I still hear a lot more folks talking about politics now than at any time during the 20th century. I wouldn't be counting on a low turnout at all in 2016. It's going to be a wide open election, with no incumbents on either side. I doubt voters will be indifferent to an election that could well set the course of the United States for most of a decade to come.
Not kind to women? Hillary made a pretty insulting statement about stay-at-home mothers that you may be conveniently forgetting:
"I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but what I decided to do was to fulfill my profession which I entered before my husband was in public life."
And this...
"You know, I'm not sitting here like some little woman standing by my man, like Tammy Wynette. I'm sitting here because I love him, and I respect him, and I honor what he's been through and what we've been through together. And you know, if that's not enough for people, then heck, don't vote for him."
And this is pure gold...
"I'm not going to have some reporters pawing through our papers. We are the president."
^Hillary is a loose cannon, which is why I suspect that she has not been in the public eye for the past few weeks.
Sorry, the number of blacks that voted in 2008 and 12 (fewer in 12) in numbers were much higher than in years before he was running. The number of voters as well as % and the overall % voting period has declined.
2012 is the only time in history that black turnout (percentage) actually exceeded white turnout. That was due to blacks turning out for one of their own who was under attack. The point I was making though is the decline in the percentage of white vote started about 20 years before Barack Obama was on the ballot. That decline is not a matter of turnout. It's generational displacement, and it will continue. The nationwide white vote in 2016 will be lower than in 2012, percentage wise, because whites will make up a smaller amount of registered voters. The black vote may well decline a little, but the white vote isn't going to increase. The growth will be in Hispanic and to a lesser extent of Asian voters. That's no guarantee that the Democrats will win, or that turnout differences between the different groups won't be a factor in that relative handful of states that are still competitive, but the national figures are extremely unlikely to deviate from the current trends because of the overall change in eligible voter demographics.
Here's how the percentage of white vote has been trending in both Presidential and Non-Presidential years:
"My how interesting is your response; how could [the Republican Party] be out of touch with 70% of the American people and still haves so many governors (not only in the south) and control the house and senate?"
70% is an exaggeration, but the GOP is out of touch with the presidential electorate. The reason this isn't apparent at other levels of government is:
(1) The Democratic Party's electoral coalition is geographically concentrated, so certain House districts are packed with Democrats, allowing the GOP to hold a disproportionate number of seats relative to its presidential performance in a number of states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, etc.).
(2) Senate seats are allocated by state rather than population. I'd wager that Democratic Senate candidates received millions more votes than their Republican counterparts in 2014, but Republicans nonetheless control the body.
(3) Again, state executives don't represent polities of equal size. Additionally, most governors are elected in midterm elections, and 2010, due to the state of the economy, was a particularly bad year for the incumbent (Democratic) party. In 2014, more or less every sitting governor could point to dramatic economic improvement, so most (at the time Republicans) were reelected.
Quote:
"Ok is barely a southern state."
Then what is it? Perhaps 'Western,' but that's about it. As I see it, whatever Texas is, Oklahoma is as well.
Great posts with facts, Bureaucat. Mittens stupidly projected the white % of electorate by using past POTUS races of bygone days. That was dumb, as we both know the white % will drop.
Latino citizens are > a decade younger than white voters. Just that citizen group is adding 1 million additional net citizens reaching voting age..every year.
To win the GOP must learn to adapt to the one ultra diverse voting electorate in the USA..those who vote for a POTUS.
Great posts with facts, Bureaucat. Mittens stupidly projected the white % of electorate by using past POTUS races of bygone days. That was dumb, as we both know the white % will drop.
Latino citizens are > a decade younger than white voters. Just that citizen group is adding 1 million additional net citizens reaching voting age..every year.
To win the GOP must learn to adapt to the one ultra diverse voting electorate in the USA..those who vote for a POTUS.
I agree in a sense. But how can they do it?
ANY move they make to behave decently toward any demographic other than wealthy white males yields them a nasty blacklash from their hateful, xenophobic base. They CAN'T act like decent human beings and keep their jobs.
I honestly don't know what the answer is. I think quite a few Republicans WANT to behave like decent, rational human beings. But they can't- in the short term they'll lose HARD if they don't tow the racist/xenophobic/wealth-worshiping line. In other words, they've painted themselves into a corner.
The backlash would be meaningless, as their base has nowhere to go. The GOP needs to do a Bill Clinton, who dissed his base with his Sister Souljah moment. His base stayed with him.
It isn't about winning 2016. They can't. HC is up on rcp's aggregate polling average 8-10% vs the closest 2, and 12% on the others. Her margins will rise as the GOP debates start and each extremist out panders each other to the base. Polls show her up with married women, a GOP staple.
But the GOP must change if sometime next decade it would like to stay in "POTUS has not be called yet" zone by the 10 o'clock Eastern newscast.
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I honestly don't know what the answer is. I think quite a few Republicans WANT to behave like decent, rational human beings. But they can't- in the short term they'll lose HARD if they don't tow the racist/xenophobic/wealth-worshiping line. In other words, they've painted themselves into a corner.
Why would they "lose hard"?
Why won't the moderates and openminded liberals flock to make up for the lost conservative votes and so much more, so they could vanquish Mrs. Clinton or whoever else is nominated?
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