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Old 11-01-2016, 02:03 PM
bUU
 
Location: Florida
12,074 posts, read 10,702,134 times
Reputation: 8798

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Quote:
Originally Posted by marino760 View Post
You can hypothesize all you like, it doesn't make it true.
Saying so doesn't make it untrue. As I said, it's just something I'm beginning to think. I see so much emotional investment by Trump supporters in (specifically) Trump winning/Clinton losing, far out of proportion to the likelihood and suitable balance between the POTUS race and the other races on Election Day. It almost seems a mania to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Senate can be anywhere from 51-49 GOP to 53-47 Dem 50-50 or 51-49 Dem is probably the most likely.
I think the extent to which right-wingers can deceive people into believing some of the corrupt distortions that they've been peddling about the emails issue (in this very thread) will determine the US Senate. We're going to see very clearly this year just how much outright lies and deceptive innuendo by Trump supporters can turn enough votes to change the result of an election.

 
Old 11-01-2016, 02:34 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,930,237 times
Reputation: 6927
Just heard Pat Caddell say Trump may actually be closer to +4-5% in the ABC tracker.
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:11 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,930,237 times
Reputation: 6927
538's now-cast now has Trump at 30.7%. Dems desperately need to stop to bleeding.
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:17 PM
 
16,579 posts, read 20,701,290 times
Reputation: 26860
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
538's now-cast now has Trump at 30.7%. Dems desperately need to stop to bleeding.
LOL. Now it's bleeding to have a 70% chance of winning.
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:25 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,930,237 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marlow View Post
LOL. Now it's bleeding to have a 70% chance of winning.
YES! Definitely. Trump has jump about 11% in just 3 days. You'd have to crazy to overlook momentum going into Election Day.
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Pasadena, CA
9,828 posts, read 9,410,810 times
Reputation: 6288
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
Now-cast has the chance of Hillary winning the popular vote but losing the EC up to 11.3%.
When you're starving, even a cookie crumb looks like a three-course meal.
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Pasadena, CA
9,828 posts, read 9,410,810 times
Reputation: 6288
Predictwise pegs HRC's chances at 85%.
Sam Wang has it at 99%.

Very little movement despite J Edgar Comey's October surprise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marlow View Post
LOL. Now it's bleeding to have a 70% chance of winning.
Silver's prediction model is way too noisy this election cycle.
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:37 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,930,237 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives View Post
When you're starving, even a cookie crumb looks like a three-course meal.
Hehe. Trump Nation loves the complacentcy.
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,087 posts, read 34,686,093 times
Reputation: 15078
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
YES! Definitely. Trump has jump about 11% in just 3 days. You'd have to crazy to overlook momentum going into Election Day.
Yes, they called it "Mittmentum" 4 years ago. Does everyone remember the "Romney is surging!" threads?

Mittmentum: Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign is drawing huge enthusiastic crowds.

Well, this is what momentum got them.


http://67.media.tumblr.com/2e681df49...oio10_1280.png
 
Old 11-01-2016, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Pasadena, CA
9,828 posts, read 9,410,810 times
Reputation: 6288
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
Hehe. Trump Nation loves the complacentcy.
I'm loving the false sense of hope.
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