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Old 10-19-2016, 01:41 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,337,717 times
Reputation: 7627

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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
:yawn: What's cherry picked? I simply looked at the 12 or so available polls on RCP and 6 of them have it close.
And so you displayed the 6 of them that "have it close".
Um, isn't that pretty much the definition of cherry picking?

Ken

 
Old 10-19-2016, 01:43 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,113 posts, read 34,739,914 times
Reputation: 15093
You know Trump is in trouble when even their beloved Breitbart/Gravis poll has him way down. Here are the last few Breitbart/Gravis polls.

Florida - Clinton +4 (Oct. 16)
Colorado - Clinton +5 (Oct. 16)
Colorado - Tie (Oct. 8)
Florida - Clinton +2 (Oct. 7)
Wisconsin - Clinton +8 (Oct. 7)
National - Tie (Oct. 5)

Gravis has a 1.1 Republican lean. In this election cycle, the Republican advantage is likely even larger since Breitbart decided to "unskew" the polls and add more Republicans to the sample.
 
Old 10-19-2016, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
7,588 posts, read 6,630,428 times
Reputation: 17966
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
And so you displayed the 6 of them that "have it close".
Um, isn't that pretty much the definition of cherry picking?

Ken
That's because the others are rigged. Obviously. Any poll that has Hillary in the lead is rigged and needs to be unskewed, and any poll that has Trump in the lead is a reliable predictor of a landslide victory. It's all very simple.
 
Old 10-19-2016, 01:51 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,337,717 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. In-Between View Post
That's because the others are rigged. Obviously. Any poll that has Hillary in the lead is rigged and needs to be unskewed, and any poll that has Trump in the lead is a reliable predictor of a landslide victory. It's all very simple.
Oh yeah real simple.
LOL
Thanks for the chuckle.

Ken
 
Old 10-19-2016, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,113 posts, read 34,739,914 times
Reputation: 15093
The other reason we know Trump is headed towards a monumentally disastrous defeat is his concession of Virginia.

Trump Campaign Withdraws From Virginia - Washington Wire - WSJ

Why would you ever withdraw from a battleground state, particularly when your path to 270 Electoral Votes is already ridiculously narrow? If Trump were competitive in Virginia, then he'd almost certainly win North Carolina. The fact that he can't even close the gap to single digits in Virginia means he's struggling big time in what are some of the most historically reliable states for Republicans.

Virginia would allow Trump to lose either Ohio or Florida. If he concedes it, then he all likelihood loses in North Carolina too, which means he loses the election. Now it's quite likely that Virginia has gone too far Left for Trump to win there anyway, but by not challenging Clinton there, he allows her to pour more time and resources into North Carolina.
 
Old 10-19-2016, 02:07 PM
 
549 posts, read 292,336 times
Reputation: 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ Manager View Post
Correcting someone's ridiculous and easily debunket bullsh*t is now me promoting a revolution? Your stupid is showing.

I've said numerous times that Clinton is a terrible idea not because I'm a Republican, I am not, but because:
1) She will spend at least 2 years of her term with a do nothing Congress. Her agenda will be impossible to push through except with foreign policy which she has a history of messing up in amazing new ways.
2) At the end of her first term it is HIGHLY likely that any brain dead Republican candidate can beat her. The worst part is there will be a few great options from the right in 2020 to wipe her smug smirk off her face. Why put someone in office that can't get anything done to hand it to the opposition party? It makes no sense you guys aren't thinking this **** through. What is her plan to get immigration reform done? What is her plan to get health care done? She has none because she knows she can't get the Republicans to budge.
She can't get the repugs to budge...That is, unless sensible people see the disaster we're headed for as a country and VOTE REPUBLICANS OUT OF POWER wherever possible.

The republicans have brought us nothing good in modern times, and their act has now culminated in the Trump clan and its base of extremist idiots.

"Trumpism" is their biggest disaster since the Iraq war and the great recession...

Get rid of republicans and you'll get rid of "gridlock" (aka obstructionism) and the power base of the deplorables.

We can't go back to sleep after the election, even if we dodge the orange bullet. Gotta vote republicans out.
 
Old 10-19-2016, 02:16 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,113 posts, read 34,739,914 times
Reputation: 15093
Trump could go into full-blown White Working Class Warrior mode to make a final play for the Midwest. He spends tonight slamming Hillary on every email leaked by Wikileaks, calls her an open border globalist to her face, etc. So let's say that bags him Minnesota (not gonna happen), Iowa (strong possibility), Wisconsin (much weaker possibility), Michigan (even weaker possibility), Ohio (likely would happen) and North Carolina (could happen if he goes Jesse Helms).

He still loses Virginia because of the DC suburbs. He narrows the gap in Pennsylvania, but still loses because Pennsylvania is a tough state to flip. A Democrat starts out with a near 500,000 vote advantage from Philadelphia alone, which makes the Democratic advantage there nearly insurmountable.

On the flipside, he motivates Blacks and Hispanics in Nevada and Florida to turnout in huge numbers. So he loses Florida and Nevada. Colorado's highly educated Non-Hispanic White population becomes even more turned off by Trump (Obama won 46.7% of the state's total White voters in 2012), which makes him burnt toast in that state. So he still ends up losing 272-266 even if he can pump up the White working class vote in the Rust Belt.

Realistically, Trump won't win Michigan or Wisconsin. All Clinton needs is the more progressive Upper Midwest (WI, MI, and IL), the East Coast (incl. VA), the West Coast, and Colorado and New Mexico.
 
Old 10-19-2016, 02:29 PM
 
9,329 posts, read 4,143,346 times
Reputation: 8224
I'd love to see a Clinton landslide - one that carries over into Congress. Because, as someone on NPR was saying, it's not as if Republican opponents are suddenly going to become nice, or make any effort to work together with her.

The only advantage she has is that Obama naively thought he could work with Republicans and never expected their intransigence. Hillary is used to those battles.
 
Old 10-19-2016, 02:33 PM
 
Location: One of the 13 original colonies.
10,190 posts, read 7,957,451 times
Reputation: 8114
Like Yogi says... it ain't over till it's over. We will see.
 
Old 10-19-2016, 02:38 PM
 
11,046 posts, read 5,273,201 times
Reputation: 5253
Quote:
Originally Posted by KrazeeKrewe View Post
Clinton was the best President in the 50 years I've been around & I was a Republican. I learned Republicans will stop at nothing to bring the Clinton's down because Republicans choose PC politics before people and county.
based on what?......he passed NAFTA, that didn't help the working class........he ignored Al Qaeda and was too cozy with Saudi Arabia while Saudi's were in our soil training under our noses for 9/11.


he started the mass incarceration that put a lot of black Americans in jail.


But you admire that? lol
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