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I don't think your condescending tone ("Educate yourself on reality") is useful. You do raise some correct points -- polling is an art form, there is some chance HRC will lose and a Trump win would mean the polls are wrong. However, you're missing the point of polls: it isn't to say this candidate is going to win or that candidate is going to lose. It is to give us some statistical insight into the likelihood of these scenarios. Right now, the likelihood is extremely high that HRC wins, and that won't be disproved by a Trump victory. A trump victory would simply mean that an unlikely event happened.
You should actually read the Brexit article you linked to. There some specific reasons the polls were wrong, including the "noise" introduced by the Jo Cox assassination. The Gallup poll you're referencing in 1980 was a single poll. This year, there are almost a dozen polls showing HRC with a significant margin. No, that doesn't mean she is a lock to win. It does, however, mean she is very likely to win.
Sorry about that comment.....I had that posted from another condescending poster I responded to in another post and copy/pasted along by accident.
Good points/understand where you're coming from. To me the biggest sticker is the supposed lack of inclusion of people who won't say they are going to vote from trump in polling that is supposedly taking place. And the huge number of undecided. Like I posted earlier, 21% I heard today in AZ are undecided supposedly on this race. Polling of course to be taken with a grain of salt but if we play "the polls are probably right", that's a huge number of undecideds that could break either way.
As for being "dis-proven', that won't happen until election day if it's true or not. I can see some logic in it as being valid but to what extent?.....but again, we'll have to wait until election day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stburr91
The reaction of Hillary supporters to anyone questioning the polls is very telling.
I've never said Trump is way up. In fact I've always said you need to take the polls with a grain of salt, even when Trump was up.
What I am telling people is that this election is not over already like Hillary supporters are claiming.
All Trump supporters have to do is go out and vote, and this will be either a close race, or a Trump win.
They either don't read that or they don't know how to understand it.
God, just two more weeks until this inane yammering comes to an end. Oh, wait, no - then they'll pivot directly from "polls are rigged" to "election was rigged." And they'll keep babbling about that for the next 4 years, because their masters on rightwing radio tell them to.
This whole forum is like an episode of "Welcome Back Kotter," with the high school debate team debating the illiterate juvenile delinquents who sit in the back of the class throwing spitballs and making fart jokes.
Just refall Trumps special counsel saying " What polls " on CNNm
And you would trust polls by CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, CNBC, WApo and the rest? Soros is behind her(paid them 200 mil to persuade the sheeple in the US.) Vote Hillary and become a 3rd world country(wait in away it's already that).
Instead of believing polls, why not take a look at the odds the bookmakers and legal wagerers are giving? After all, they are putting up real money and willing to gamble money on the outcome. Not only that, but their odds are very accurate.
And the huge number of undecided. Like I posted earlier, 21% I heard today in AZ are undecided supposedly on this race. Polling of course to be taken with a grain of salt but if we play "the polls are probably right", that's a huge number of undecideds that could break either way.
I agree that undecideds are the main source of election surprise, but most states don't have near this many undecideds. Nationally, I believe the number is under 10% now, and that number has been shrinking.
As for being "dis-proven', that won't happen until election day if it's true or not. I can see some logic in it as being valid but to what extent?.....but again, we'll have to wait until election day.
A lot of people floated this sort of effect in the primaries because Trump's rhetoric was even more divisive then than it is now. However, Trump generally performed in line with polling. There were deviations from polling in specific states, but nationally, the polls mostly got it right. There was no appreciable "secret Trump voter" effect.
I read your link..and well...no---if you can get enough to eat...and water when you want it...basic needs met whenever they arise--when the ambulance always comes..the fire engines are at the door within minutes....there are more cars than people...and good roads to drive them on...when the vast majority work and have monthly incomes that equate to yearly incomes in other countries--we are not a 3rd world nation. No amount of pseudo-intellectual sophistry will change the basic fact that life is far better here than in most places.
In the end you are getting nothing more than opinions from people, who might or might not vote yet took the polling survey, who might have taken a poll that was worded in a way that slanted them to answer it in such a way, etc.
Again, I suggest you read the references in my above post, especially thehill article and how polling is done and the limitations. And how especially in this race, many polling experts are saying many trump supporters won't admit they are voting for him. And living in our times of jaded/bias this and that and everything, it's all not to be trusted in my book.
So given this reality, the only poll that counts in my book is on election day. If you have 100% confidence in the polls, Las Vegas probably has lots of bets for you on all of this so you can make your fortune.
Yeah, most experts don't believe in the shy Trump voter. That's simply something partisans are banking on is all.
Yeah, most experts don't believe in the shy Trump voter. That's simply something partisans are banking on is all.
I wrote an article about that early in the race, sometime in May I believe. I think that it was a factor in the spring and part of the summer, but my feeling was that as Trump became more widely accepted, and people became accustomed to seeing him being taken (somewhat) seriously, they would become less and less bashful about admitting they supported him. My conclusion was that by the time we got to the election, it would be a very minor factor. I still believe that to be true.
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