What if Roy Moore wins? (Huckabee, Franken, voters, Congress)

[Mouldy Old Schmo]

What if Alabama senatorial candidate Roy Moore wins the state’s special election in December? Will he be able to defy Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as he promised to do, or will he have to knuckle under? Will the other Republicans spurn Moore, or will they have to accommodate him because with such a narrow majority, they want his vote?

[Bureaucat]

My guess.

1. Enough Republicans in Alabama will hold their nose and vote for him to win.
2. Despite talking of refusing to seat him, the establishment R’s will cave.
3. Democrats use Roy Moore as a Republican poster boy in 2018.
4. It won’t matter in a state like Alabama, but the Trump/Moore party label could be too much of an anvil for Republicans in suburban non-Deep South districts to overcome. The key will be how moderate college educated married women in the burbs react.

[prospectheightsresident]

I fully expect Moore to win, albeit narrowly, if only because due to the hypocrisy and double standard of the left on the issue of allegations of sexual assault and harassment. If the left was consistent (they call on Moore to step aside, while not making similar calls for Franken, who is photographed molesting a sleeping woman, or Conyers, who paid to settle sexual harassment claims against him) with their criticism and behavior in response to such issues, their candidate would stand a stronger chance in the election.

But I don't see Moore openly defying McConnell, although I think McConnell wished that he would as it would mean that they wouldn't be tied together as much. I think Moore will work with the GOP in an effort to win the next election, which is NO sure bet. I think many GOP primary voters--even if they will vote for him on election day next month--are kicking themselves for backing this man in the first place, even if they don't believe the allegations against him. It would be in Moore's best electoral interests to show that he's capable of being effective, which requires more work with the establishment in the Senate. Controversy surrounding an already controversial man would not be good for Moore.

[banjomike]

If Moore wins, he will be nothing but another headache for the GOP going into the 2018 election.

After that election, he will remain a headache for 2 more years until the 2020 election, when he will either quit or run for a full term.

I doubt Moore would ever cave in and go along with the Senate leadership; his entire political life is built on defiance of authority.
Since McConnell and all the other leaders have come out against him, I'm sure he will find ways to defy all of them as best he can.
That only means he won't be given any committee assignment that's going to do any good for his state, and that means he'll serve in a vacuum for the next couple of years in isolation.

He reminds me of former Senator Larry Craig, who was outed as being gay in 2007. Craig publicly said he was going to resign his Senate seat, but then reneged, and served out the last of his term, serving for almost 2 more years until 2009.

Craig was a pariah. No one talked to him in the Senate halls, no one included him on any plans or in meetings, and he lost all the prominence he had gained from a 30-year Congressional career.

He became a ghost, nothing but an empty placeholder, and was nothing but a waste of space for his state and nation until he departed. A smart sheep dog could have done as good a job as Craig did for those 2 years, and would have been a lot more popular.

[veuvegirl]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

My guess.

1. Enough Republicans in Alabama will hold their nose and vote for him to win.
2. Despite talking of refusing to seat him, the establishment R’s will cave.
3. Democrats use Roy Moore as a Republican poster boy in 2018.
4. It won’t matter in a state like Alabama, but the Trump/Moore party label could be too much of an anvil for Republicans in suburban non-Deep South districts to overcome. The key will be how moderate college educated married women in the burbs react.

This is exactly how I see it playing out as well. I am truly disgusted with the human race currently. Social media is bringing to light that we have all (at least I have) been living in a bubble that people are good. I was astonished that Trump was elected after everything he had done. Nothing surprises me anymore.

[MMS02760]

If Roy Moore wins, the Democrats immediately start their campaign of making him and Trump the posters boys of the GOP. Moore and Trump may fly in Alabama but they are toxic in the sane parts of America.

[jas75]

Originally Posted by MMS02760

If Roy Moore wins, the Democrats immediately start their campaign of making him and Trump the posters boys of the GOP. Moore and trump may fly in Alabama but they are toxic in the sane parts of America.

Moore is no asset to the Republican party, but going after McConnell would likely be a better strategy for Democrats. As majority leader he is far more powerful and can be easily depicted as dedicated to his donors rather than everyday Americans. Moore is only going to be one senator and won't have a lot of influence in Congress initially. Republicans have been very successful in characterizing Pelosi as a stale and out of touch politician, so Democrats can do the same to McConnell.

[BobNJ1960]

Moore will win. It will be a non factor, status quo election. No lasting ramifications.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by jas75

Moore is no asset to the Republican party, but going after McConnell would likely be a better strategy for Democrats. As majority leader he is far more powerful and can be easily depicted as dedicated to his donors rather than everyday Americans. Moore is only going to be one senator and won't have a lot of influence in Congress initially. Republicans have been very successful in characterizing Pelosi as a stale and out of touch politician, so Democrats can do the same to McConnell.

Nope, The problem for Republicans is that a Roy Moore win might mean a Mike Huckabee senate or Govenrorship run in Florida, which might mean the same of the religious right in other States.

As others have said, Roy Moore can win in Alabama, but that doesnt mean religious GOP members can win around the country. Bannon has already pledged to primary all these GOP senators anyways.

Imagine what happens if Democrat run a dream team ( by which i mean locally relevant ) of candidates in 2018. And republicans nominate horrible candidates like they did in 2010.

What is even worse is if that carries over into 2020.

[Dockside]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

My guess.

1. Enough Republicans in Alabama will hold their nose and vote for him to win.
2. Despite talking of refusing to seat him, the establishment R’s will cave.
3. Democrats use Roy Moore as a Republican poster boy in 2018.
4. It won’t matter in a state like Alabama, but the Trump/Moore party label could be too much of an anvil for Republicans in suburban non-Deep South districts to overcome. The key will be how moderate college educated married women in the burbs react.

I agree with points 1& 2, but I suspect 3 will be a tricky one for both parties. Gutierrez announced his retirement today, the waters on Franken are still murky and the NYT published an opinion piece that seemed like they were waving the white flag in the culture wars. The witch hunt has turned into a full blown sex panic and it's a double-edged sword cutting both ways. Libs don't want to sabotage their chances in 2018.

The Limits of ‘Believe All Women’ https://nyti.ms/2k9T3Ap

Point 4...most people don't know who Moore is and don't care. I doubt most people even know which states border Alabama. Don't believe me? Quick...what's the capitol of Alabama? See what I mean?

Libs can yell all they want but they're just preaching to the choir. No one knows what really happened. Not you, not me, no one posting here. What people do know is that it's awfully convenient for the Democrats and smells like dirty tricks. Americans get prickly with this stuff.