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I thought political discussion wasn't allowed in the Arizona forums?
They aren't, which I why I'm moving this thread to the ELECTIONS forum.
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To me, Arizona is the Florida of the West.
It's a state that's chock full of retirees from other places. They come from all over, and may live in Arizona full-time, part-time, or only part-part time, only a few weeks of a year. Those folks often choose Arizona as their primary residence, but that never means they'll vote there. Many remain on the voting rolls in their old home states.
The home to a lot of hispanics and other minorities that never vote. Arizona voters are always in the moment; when something happens there, the voters will change their minds in a split-second.
The retirees are only part of the ever-shifting politics. There's no city in Arizona that's a stable power center for a political party like there is in the other western states.
Politics can change in a flash there, and then change back to what it was before just as quickly.
It's a basically conservative state that goes through spasms of liberalism frequently that never lasts for very long. And when the state goes back to conservatism, it becomes more extreme than it was before. When it's liberal, it sometimes goes to liberal extremes.
Over this century, nature has gone to extremes there too. That's further complicated Arizona's politics.
I gave up trying to predict any outcome in Arizona long ago. The folks there have elected some of our finest politicians, and then have elected some of our worst, and sometimes elect both at the same time.
Last edited by banjomike; 10-03-2022 at 12:33 PM..
However, Robert Cahaly with Trafalgar has Kelly by 2.
Cahaly has been saying all year many polling outfits are inaccurate because they don't catch the "submerged" Rep vote.
This Nov. should give a good idea the accuracy of Trafalgar and Cahaly who has been getting a lot of media attention this election
So if you split the difference between those 2 polls, Kelly is still up by 5.
That's still a respectable lead when the Republicans in Arizona are split down the middle.
There are quite a lot of Repubs who can't make up their minds as to who they'll vote for this year.
Will some of those submerged voters rise to the surface for Cahaly? Or will they just sit 2020 out instead and wait for 2024?
Polling won't ever answer those questions in a state where a late-season heat wave can throw an election on its head.
So if you split the difference between those 2 polls, Kelly is still up by 5.
That's still a respectable lead when the Republicans in Arizona are split down the middle.
There are quite a lot of Repubs who can't make up their minds as to who they'll vote for this year.
Will some of those submerged voters rise to the surface for Cahaly? Or will they just sit 2020 out instead and wait for 2024?
Polling won't ever answer those questions in a state where a late-season heat wave can throw an election on its head.
No, I suspect too many of the polls are still way off this year and this skews the overall average.
(Imo) Kelly is up but Masters is within the margin of error and has been all summer..
Will some of those submerged voters rise to the surface for Cahaly? Or will they just sit 2020 out instead and wait for 2024?
My guess is they will vote and turnout will determine the winner.
Masters is an extremist. Kelly is a moderate. Moderates play really well in AZ. This one is obvious.
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