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By 2010 the stimulus will start working and we will have a government supported health care/insurance program. I expect even more Democrats will be elected, including replacing several "blue dogs" with progressives and we will then begin to create an America that is good for all of us not just the few families that have been robbing us blind.
I think it'll be about even with a slight Democratic gain. A big wild card not mentioned is the Hispanic vote. And believe me you, they will not forget about the Republicans that voted against Sotomayor.
I am not certain though there are two key issues which I think will play a huge role. The first is health care. I think Jim DeMint is right that if the Republicans stop it or make it a watered down failure of a bill that forces people to buy health insure dems will be in trouble.
The second issue I see as being important is emphasized by the "proud right-wing terrorist" comment. If Republicans embrace people like this, similar to how democrats embraced people in the weather underground in the 1970s, and if there are more and more incidents of domestic terrorism by the far right i.e. bombings, assassinations, etc. like we saw with Dr. Tiller. Republicans could very easily be seen as extreme and alienate a lot of people, which would cost them dearly in elections.
Given that the Dems have an 80 seat margin over the GOP in the House, the House will stay in Dem hands even in a best case scenario for the Republicans (winning 30 seats).
The Senate will, IMO, go Republican, but with 51 Republicans, 47 Dems, and (as now) two independents who usually vote Dem. I see several Dem senators going down and a few open races going GOP, whereas the only Republican whom I see losing his seat in 2010 is David Vitter. (Unfortunately for the Dems, however, Charlie Melancon is the most conservative of all the Southern Blue Dogs and will probably vote with the GOP). I don't see any open seats currently held by Republicans going Dem.
As for state races: I see some states going from red to blue and blue to red in governor's races. Jerry Brown is a near certainty in CA, and Rudy Giuliani is a near certainty in NY, for example.
Remember we still have a year to go under this congress and their lunatic president. Chances are things will get MUCH worse. I think you need to double the number of bums that will be thrown out. I'm not so sure it will be a landslide republican victory, but I think a LOT of incumbant democrats will be seeing the door come November. People are finally waking up and voting out the status quoe. It's exactly what happend last November.
Remember we still have a year to go under this congress and their lunatic president. Chances are things will get MUCH worse. I think you need to double the number of bums that will be thrown out. I'm not so sure it will be a landslide republican victory, but I think a LOT of incumbant democrats will be seeing the door come November. People are finally waking up and voting out the status quoe. It's exactly what happend last November.
Given that the Dems have an 80 seat margin over the GOP in the House, the House will stay in Dem hands even in a best case scenario for the Republicans (winning 30 seats).
The Senate will, IMO, go Republican, but with 51 Republicans, 47 Dems, and (as now) two independents who usually vote Dem. I see several Dem senators going down and a few open races going GOP, whereas the only Republican whom I see losing his seat in 2010 is David Vitter. (Unfortunately for the Dems, however, Charlie Melancon is the most conservative of all the Southern Blue Dogs and will probably vote with the GOP). I don't see any open seats currently held by Republicans going Dem.
As for state races: I see some states going from red to blue and blue to red in governor's races. Jerry Brown is a near certainty in CA, and Rudy Giuliani is a near certainty in NY, for example.
I agree that the (D)s will likely retain the House, though the GOP gain could be very large (20+) and there is a small chance of them overtaking the house.
I think Vitter will win. Melancon has sided with the left on the stimulus and has been voting pretty consistently with the (D)s. Vitter had some personal problems (and his temper is still there), but he is a real conservative whose ideology fits in better with LA than Melanco's.
The GOP can lose senate seats in 2010. They can lose NH(Gregg), MO (Bond), KY (Bunning), OH (Voinovich). I think they'll keep FL (Martinez) and Burr (NC), but those can be lost.
The GOP can retake PA(Specter), NV (Reid), CT (Dodd), IL(Burris, unlikely), Boxer(CA, unlikely), CO (Benet), ND (Dorgan), AR (Lincoln). I'd love to see Bayh lose and will gladly vote against him, but he will win.
My guess is the (D)s will take MO and, perhaps, NH. The GOP will take: PA, NV, CO, CT and AR. That would be a net +3 GOP, making it
43 - 57(including Lieberman and Sanders).
If the Republicans manage to vote down a UHC or HI bill the voters, even in the GOP states, will rebel and give the Democrats an overwhelming majority so we can continue on a progressive path. Even if a watered down HC bill is passed the voters will not consider it adequate and rightfully blame the foot dragging Republicans and they will be punished at the poles.
By 2010 the stimulus will start working and we will have a government supported health care/insurance program. I expect even more Democrats will be elected, including replacing several "blue dogs" with progressives and we will then begin to create an America that is good for all of us not just the few families that have been robbing us blind.
Well there's about 5 months till the stimulus starts working, I guess.
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