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Toomey is going to have some major problems in suburban Philly. In the end I think the margins of his losses in suburban Philly will be too much to overcome.
Republicans will always have trouble with Philly because Philly is extremely liberal. Obama got 83% of the vote there, so that's no surprise. But I don't think that'll be enough to hurt Toomey elsewhere.
Toomey is going to have some major problems in suburban Philly. In the end I think the margins of his losses in suburban Philly will be too much to overcome.
IF the democrats can get the vote out, especially in the black community. Many pollster talk about the enthusiasm gap between the Rs and Ds, with the Rs about 20 points higher. Without obama on the ballot, blacks are not likely to come out.
He practically begged them to come out for Specter.
Republicans will always have trouble with Philly because Philly is extremely liberal. Obama got 83% of the vote there, so that's no surprise. But I don't think that'll be enough to hurt Toomey elsewhere.
I'm not talking about Philly proper, that is always a nightmare for the GOP. I'm talking about suburban Philly, specifically Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties. No one from either party has ever won statewide without winning the Philadelphia suburbs. Suburban Philly has been trending pretty strongly towards the Democrats, and to top that off it has long been Specter's base and is Sestak's base as well. Sestak represents most of Delaware County and portions of Chester & Montgomery Counties in congress,
I'm not talking about Philly proper, that is always a nightmare for the GOP. I'm talking about suburban Philly, specifically Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties. No one from either party has ever won statewide without winning the Philadelphia suburbs. Suburban Philly has been trending pretty strongly towards the Democrats, and to top that off it has long been Specter's base and is Sestak's base as well. Sestak represents most of Delaware County and portions of Chester & Montgomery Counties in congress,
Still, the republicans have a definitely advantage in the enthusiasm gap.
Still, the republicans have a definitely advantage in the enthusiasm gap.
The enthusiasm gap has been closed a bit of late. GOP still has the advantage, but not what it was. Also, Sestak is the stronger candidate. Suburban Philly has always been immensely important at winning statewide. Remember PA use to be a GOP leaning state, it moved towards the Democrats because of all the ground the GOP lost in suburban Philly. Toomey represents everything the suburban Philly voters turned against when they stopped voting Republican. He is probably the worst candidate for the region the GOP can throw out there (other than having Santorum run again) and Sestak is the perfect fit for that region. Toomey will do very well in the T and likely quite well out west (outside of Pittsburgh and the immediate inner suburbs), however when its all set and done the margins in suburban Philly will be ugly for the GOP and too much to overcome.
The enthusiasm gap has been closed a bit of late. GOP still has the advantage, but not what it was. Also, Sestak is the stronger candidate. Suburban Philly has always been immensely important at winning statewide. Remember PA use to be a GOP leaning state, it moved towards the Democrats because of all the ground the GOP lost in suburban Philly. Toomey represents everything the suburban Philly voters turned against when they stopped voting Republican. He is probably the worst candidate for the region the GOP can throw out there (other than having Santorum run again) and Sestak is the perfect fit for that region. Toomey will do very well in the T and likely quite well out west (outside of Pittsburgh and the immediate inner suburbs), however when its all set and done the margins in suburban Philly will be ugly for the GOP and too much to overcome.
PA has been a blue state for nearly 20 years. Enough of this nonsense that it is all of a sudden a republican-leaning state.
PA has been a blue state for nearly 20 years. Enough of this nonsense that it is all of a sudden a republican-leaning state.
You aren't fooling anybody.
You just don't listen do you??
First off with my last statement I was saying PA use to be GOP leaning and is now Dem leaning. The Democrats and Republicans have traded some areas over the past 10-20 years. The mostly rural Appalachia type of areas in western PA (once you get outside of Pittsburgh and its immediate suburbs) have been trending Republican, meanwhile the Philadelphia suburbs have been trending Democratic. Overall this has moved the state as a whole a bit more Democratic as suburban Philly is a bit more populated than the rural areas out west and is also gaining population while those rural areas out west have seen stagnant population or declines in population.
I'm a conservative but I'm pulling for Sestak. This is what Specter get's for being a traitor. I bet when he became a Dem he thought it was such a smart and savvy move.
You're going to have an extremely low turnout( even for a primary) Pa election today. The weather is rainy and dreary and young voters won't show up. I drove past my polling place and saw 3 cars there with nobody going in or out 45 minutes after it opened.
As a libertarian I can't vote anyway. I think the November elections are anybodys to win, republican or democrat. I should say that's as long as neither gets painted as being extremely liberal or extremely conservative. Outside of the two cities extreme liberals don't fair too well and extreme conservatives don't do much better anywhere.
To throw another wrench in this race, the weather in most of PA (especially eastern PA) has been brutal all day. In Philly it has rained virtually all day (recently stopped though still very raw), still raining in NEPA. This could result in a bit better turnout out west than near Philly.
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