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Old 05-12-2021, 10:24 PM
 
Location: Russia
1,348 posts, read 624,537 times
Reputation: 688

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Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
No I am not claiming he robbed all Russians. There are many doing just fine. The upper 5 to 10% (that's 7 to 15 million people) are living well. There are a lot more living on $500 a month, and it should not be this way in my opinion with such a GDP which means there are billions of dollars directed to his circle and going who knows where. If you want to claim that's a good life anyway, because its better than 1998, okay great. Not my problem.
No, they're not going anywhere. Yes, mostly large projects are carried out by people close to Putin, but this does not mean that they simply steal state money. Factories, roads, bridges, airports are being built.
They just overestimate the estimates a little. Well, is the 2-3 percentage. Purely at bread and butter.
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Old 05-12-2021, 10:57 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,855,314 times
Reputation: 6690
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimogor View Post
No, they're not going anywhere. Yes, mostly large projects are carried out by people close to Putin, but this does not mean that they simply steal state money. Factories, roads, bridges, airports are being built.
They just overestimate the estimates a little. Well, is the 2-3 percentage. Purely at bread and butter.
Well the Russians I know have a different opinion about this percentage and whether there are good enough incomes for everyone there or not. If you say life is good and everyone is buying new homes and cars, great! I guess Rosstat is lying about car sales falling since 2013 too...

2013 2,777,547 -5.37
2014 2,491,394 -10.30
2015 1,603,253 -35.65
2016 1,428,123 -10.92
2017 1,599,718 12.02
2018 1,800,351 12.54
2019 1,754,297 -2.56
2020 1,598,369 -8.89

hot cakes eh?
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Old 05-13-2021, 12:13 AM
 
Location: Russia
1,348 posts, read 624,537 times
Reputation: 688
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Well the Russians I know have a different opinion about this percentage and whether there are good enough incomes for everyone there or not. If you say life is good and everyone is buying new homes and cars, great! I guess Rosstat is lying about car sales falling since 2013 too...

2013 2,777,547 -5.37
2014 2,491,394 -10.30
2015 1,603,253 -35.65
2016 1,428,123 -10.92
2017 1,599,718 12.02
2018 1,800,351 12.54
2019 1,754,297 -2.56
2020 1,598,369 -8.89

hot cakes eh?
Well, it's not worth looking at 2020..supposedly a pandemic..
But in the first four months of 2021, the market grew by 24% In April 2021, the demand for cars increased 4 times!

Quote:
Sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia in April increased 3.9 times to 151,964 vehicles. According to the results of four months of 2021, the Russian car market amounted to 515,934 cars (+ 24.3%), according to the data of the Association of European Businesses.
Source: https://www.autostat.ru/news/48221/ © Avtostat.
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Old 05-13-2021, 12:49 AM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,855,314 times
Reputation: 6690
So don't look at 2020's down numbers due to the pandemic but lets look at 2021 compared to 2020? Makes a lot of sense. Even better lets compare April this year compared to April of lockdown. Amazing!

First 4 months at 515,934... so at this rate: 1,546,802 for the year. Is this another set of posts where you claim less is more?
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Old 05-13-2021, 10:56 AM
 
3,950 posts, read 3,300,229 times
Reputation: 1692
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
So don't look at 2020's down numbers due to the pandemic but lets look at 2021 compared to 2020? Makes a lot of sense. Even better lets compare April this year compared to April of lockdown. Amazing!

First 4 months at 515,934... so at this rate: 1,546,802 for the year. Is this another set of posts where you claim less is more?
2013-2016 Ukraine affair/sanctions/low oil price/recession

Nice recovery in 2017 and 2018

2019 a bit soft and then the pandemic in 2020.


If there is one thing you and I agree DKM is the poor performance of the Russian economy, they have the means to at least clock 5% per year if not more.

Russia needs to lower interest rates and expand both private credit and government debt for investment. Just open the spigots.
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Old 05-13-2021, 11:02 AM
 
26,783 posts, read 22,537,314 times
Reputation: 10037
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Umm sure, I am so angry that Russian cities have suburbs like everywhere else in the world. So

They have the same kind of neighborhoods in Lvov:

https://www.google.com/maps/@49.7770...!7i3968!8i2976

https://www.google.com/maps/@49.7763...!7i9000!8i4500

What is the big deal anyway. Its cool to see videos about Russia but framing them as some shock to westerners and Ukrainians... nah I'm going to call out such nonsense.

But that's Lvov DKM - that's not the rest of Ukraine.

Lvov (and Ivano-Frankovsk) regions don't look anything like the rest of Ukraine, that they were not part of historically and culturally until 1938-1939. ( So it's ironic if not to say outrageous that people from these regions dictate to the rest of the country what Ukraine ( and Ukrainians) should be.

You can see for yourself that the number of "cottage towns" as they are called there, is highest in Lvov region ( at 114) after Kiev region (at 546.)

Why it's high around Kiev - it's obvious; all the corrupt officials of Ukraine buy their property there.

Lvov region is developed for tourist industry; I suppose that "Pan'ska Gora" resort hotel in the same area where your pics come from, is the second top in all of Ukraine ( if not the first one.)

As for the rest of Ukraine...

You can see for yourself, that the amount of "suburban wealth" in Ukraine is minuscule, judging by the amount of these "cottage towns" around cities in different regions. ( Scroll down, see the numbers of "suburban towns" for every region, ranging from 1 to 28.)

https://vsekottedzhi.com.ua/

On another hand, I was surprised to see the quality of Ukrainian houses in the now bombed and destroyed Donbass. The houses there were not flashy, but rather grayish, made of stone, solid, built for ages to come. They were meant for generations to come to live in those houses. ( Definitely not what I see in American suburbia on average, I know that much.)


But let's move on to Russia.

The amount of "cottage towns" there is over 1,700 in Moscow area alone.

And from what people are saying on that posted earlier video, they are mushrooming around every major Russian city, all over the country.

So obviously Russia is much wealthier than Ukraine, even though ( truth to be told) that particular video was made in well- developed tourist area of Russia as well; namely - Tver region;
they are running some pilot project there for the "resort area" as well.

And yet again - with that being said, I've read an interesting article yesterday, that Russian developers have hard time selling those "cottages" ( around Moscow at least,) that are situated more than an hour away from Moscow.

So in the mind of Russians the "city life" and "rural life" are still separated, no matter how much the developers are trying to steal American ideas and to generate more profits, developing new suburbia projects that stretch further and further away from major cities.

Even though this person here ( whoever he is in the video,) is trying to present the pluses and minuses of "city life" and "suburban life," it's obvious that wealthy Russians that consider themselves still "city dwellers" are not willing to commute to the city more than one hour from the wealthy suburbs ( according to the article.)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJi3TLiB9DI



However the point of it all here is that while the impoverished Ukraine is pointing at Russia as some "grayish hellhole," in comparison to "European paradise," Russia doesn't look so bad.

So the way I see it, it's not the "lack of infrastructural" ( or economic) development in Russia "comparably to Europe" at the core of a problem, that makes Russia so *unattractive* for many Ukrainians, but something else.

Yet ironically enough, this "something else" is even worse ( much worse) in "free and democratic, post-Maidan Ukraine," than in Russia proper. And no "European Union" can fix it.

Last edited by erasure; 05-13-2021 at 11:51 AM..
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Old 05-13-2021, 12:54 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,855,314 times
Reputation: 6690
Quote:
Originally Posted by saturno_v View Post
2013-2016 Ukraine affair/sanctions/low oil price/recession

Nice recovery in 2017 and 2018

2019 a bit soft and then the pandemic in 2020.


If there is one thing you and I agree DKM is the poor performance of the Russian economy, they have the means to at least clock 5% per year if not more.

Russia needs to lower interest rates and expand both private credit and government debt for investment. Just open the spigots.
Yes you are mostly correct on all counts but I don't know if lowering rates and expanding credit is so easy when you have limited ability to finance expansion. The sanctions have reduced access to the main capital markets.

They could easily clock 5% a year if they stopped their foreign interventions and make peace with Europe instead of confrontation. However, it isn't just sanctions that prevent foreign investment, its lack of rule of law. Arbitrary decisions about property rights means I could risk my investment just by buying a home there to rent (as an example). There is a nonzero chance it could be stolen from me.

There is no hope for this changing anytime soon either. Absolutely no dissent is allowed in Russia or Belarus. The pressure or prospects of any kind of reform are off the table. Belarus just sentenced a drummer to six years for playing drums at a election march. That isn't the kind of environment conducive to growing a business.

Real incomes matter too. Russian incomes are still lower than they were in 2013. There isn't a reason to believe this is going to change soon either.

Last edited by DKM; 05-13-2021 at 01:08 PM..
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Old 05-13-2021, 04:44 PM
 
3,950 posts, read 3,300,229 times
Reputation: 1692
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Yes you are mostly correct on all counts but I don't know if lowering rates and expanding credit is so easy when you have limited ability to finance expansion. The sanctions have reduced access to the main capital markets.
Russia is a currency sovereign and it does not need outside capital to invest...rubles come only from Russia
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Old 05-13-2021, 06:27 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,855,314 times
Reputation: 6690
Quote:
Originally Posted by saturno_v View Post
Russia is a currency sovereign and it does not need outside capital to invest...rubles come only from Russia
You're suggesting they just print rubles? That is their way to boost their economy? As a short term move that will work but...
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Old 05-13-2021, 06:40 PM
 
9,511 posts, read 5,437,689 times
Reputation: 9092
I read an article about a study done by a Finnish and German companies and they said up to 37% of Russias GDP is under the table. +/- a few percentage points. I know your average Russian tends to make money on the side in some manner be it legal or otherwise. I really don't know how much Russians cheat the system but I have to ask. Who doesn't?
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