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The EU has bilateral trade agreements with individual countries, such as Chile and Mexico. It has been suggested that a withdrawing UK would have enough clout to negotiate a similar deal.
BTW, there is a proposed FTA between New Zealand and the USA. In terms of trade with Commonwealth countries, the USA has a more promising future than Britain does.
The EU has bilateral trade agreements with individual countries, such as Chile and Mexico. It has been suggested that a withdrawing UK would have enough clout to negotiate a similar deal.
Serious question: have you ever read any of those trade agreements?
Because frankly, they are far from fully liberalising trade in goods and services. Especially services liberalisation is a joke in these preferential trade agreements.
I don't know why the UK would want to leave the single market in favour of a trade agreement that doesn't fully eliminate all tariffs, only establishes the very basic rules of free trade and opens up multiple ways for mutual discrimination in trade in services.
I have read a bit about NAFTA. The results have been a mixed bag. The Canadian furniture industry benefited, instead of suffering as expected. On the other hand, NAFTA eliminated Article 27 of the Mexican constitution, which prevented sale or privatization of Indian lands-leading to the uprising of Zapatistas in Chiapas
I understand that Brits thought that they were entering a free trade arrangement when they voted for the Common Market.
I think that a trade agreement should take into consideration the needs of individual countries/cultures. In effect, variable geometry rather than over bearing "harmonization".
Last edited by Tim Randal Walker; 05-19-2016 at 09:10 PM..
I have read a bit about NAFTA. The results have been a mixed bag. The Canadian furniture industry benefited, instead of suffering as expected. On the other hand, NAFTA eliminated Article 27 of the Mexican constitution, which prevented sale or privatization of Indian lands-leading to the uprising of Zapatistas in Chiapas
Well, NAFTA is a whole different story since it's investment chapter is rather unique.
My point is: Many people supporting Brexit seem to point to various preferential trade agreements when discussing EU alternatives. Be it EU-Mexico, EU-Chile, EU-South Korea, ...
What those people don't seem to understand is that these agreements never fully liberalise trade despite being called FTAs. Some of them are not more than political statements of intent. The vast majority just reduces tariffs, which are already quite low thanks to the WTO.
Service liberalisation? Pff... Nope. Countries are always hesitant to liberalise trade in services on a bilateral or multilateral basis. Commitments made are often meaningless.
So, in my humble view, the UK will struggle a lot to get meaningful trade in services provisions. And unfortunately that's what the UK needs the most. Not just a reduction of tariffs.
only if there is a stitch up !!! most people I speak to want out, its only the political class that want to stay in, so they can milk the gravy train when they retire from British politics.
Though nobody wants to threaten the UK, don't even think that the EU would just go on as business as usual. It would be the 60 million pop and 3 trillion GDP vs the EU's 450 million pop and 15 trillion GDP. The EU would do everything it can to get the best negotiating result as possible, as it after all it's in a dominating position. Secondly, the EU could try to extort brexited Britain in any way possible when the opportunity arises.
Ok, I understand that the net contribution of the UK to the EU is around £8 billion annually and it's a big number. Finland's net contribution is £625 million, and that sounds as an acceptable figure, right? But divide the numbers with the population - every Finn person pays around £20 more than a Brit. And we are quite happy in the EU, though necessarily not so much right now in the €. But that's another story.
13% of the annual GDP of Britain comes from trade in the common market - the EU. That is about £261 billion every year. Say that the UK could immediately regain 50% of this in separate negotiations. The temporary deficit would the equivalent of 31 years of the net payments to the EU. And dream on with independent trade negotiations with say, Siam, Upper Volta, Rhodesia and the dominion of Newfoundland and Labrador. So how much does the EU membership really cost?
And what about Scotland? They were already close leaving the Union, and what if they think that they should be in the EU? Another referendum? The City of London has already warned about dire consequences if the brexit happens, and so does many economics. Meanwhile the countries in the EU would suffer individually, but in a much lower scale. For example Britain is Finland's 6th largest import/export partner, but a brexit would mean a 0.02% drop in our GDP annually. Britain is Finland's largest buyer of wood-based products, but hey, if you don't want to play in the common market, we can sell them to Portugal or something. And what if France and Germany pulls the plug on British exports and imports? They can find new markets, but boy would Britain be in trouble.
Brexit is bad for the UK and it's bad for Europe. It's also bad for NATO. I hope from all of my heart that Britain remains in the EU. For the sake of all of us.
Just how much support is there for the EU, in the various countries? Besides the elites, that is.
Last edited by Tim Randal Walker; 05-20-2016 at 12:54 PM..
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