[firemed]

Originally Posted by Bones

Firemed

I just got my new tax bill for Clearwater. They went "DOWN"
Now what do I do with the $27 ????

Guess put it towards the insurance increase of 40%

I know, the insurance will go up just a little more then $27.00

[Bones]

I know, the insurance will go up just a little more then $27.00[/quote]


Lets see,they went up 2 months ago.
$27 add a 0 (zero) = $270 x 2 = $540 Almost covers it.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Bones

Shores9, I see that you are a realtor. It appears from some of your comments that there is not a problem with houses in Pinellas county. Would you share some info with the forum as to what "IS" selling in the bay area - price,size,location,etc.

Thanks,
Bones

Bones, I would like to respond as best as possible, however I don’t remember offering Pinellas specific statistics in the past. Please quote if I’m incorrect.

Regarding “what "IS" selling in the bay area - price, size, location, etc” it is answered across the first few lines below. I generally pull my own data from MLS – not pre-defined MLS statistics. The information is deemed accurate but is not guaranteed. It includes “closed sales” re-sales typically not new construction for Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Pasco from the MLS service . The last 4-5 lines give a historical perspective (on sales pace of units sold).

From January 1, 2006 to October 31, 2006 Total Units (re-sales) = 39,585
Type of units sold Single Family=27,559 Condo/Town Home/Villa=10,540 Mobile/Other=1,486

Average List Price = 271,703 Average Sales Price = 264,823
Average sq.ft. = 1,594 Average Bed = 3 bath = 2



Sold Units For the same period
1/1/05 > 10/31/05 52,476
1/1/04 > 10/31/04 45,667
1/1/03 > 10/31/03 40,557
1/1/02 > 10/31/02 32,989

Using the same period of January 1st to October 31st
Yr 2006 sales were below 2005 by 24.6%
Yr 2006 sales were below 2004 by 13.3%
Yr 2006 sales were below 2003 by 2.4%
Yr 2006 sales were above 2002 by 20%

Bones I hope this is helpful and what you’re looking for. Unfortunately there is way too much information being produced and pushed at the public as balanced and credible(even by NAR). Too many people, organizations and publications are competing for a very limited amount of (NEWS)space. The average person is inundated with blogs, internet headlines, internet companies and entities (like MSN or Zillow) that are promoting some information or product “for profit” – Companies in finance and banking push their own positions and news papers will print anything to catch attention and $.75 of your money in the process. Even City-Data has advertising segments (some by Realtors) on almost every page.

Again I hope this was helpful – Good luck in TN

[elfyum]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Average List Price = 271,703 Average Sales Price = 264,823
Average sq.ft. = 1,594 Average Bed = 3 bath = 2

THANK YOU!!!!!! That's not what I would call a "crash"!!!
Jeez Loize!!!

Anyway, Muggy - I realize that I took you wrong. For some reason I thought you were suggesting that people should not buy, but rent. I guess you were only explaining that it works for YOU. That's fine. I think you're totally crazy but that's fine. I thought you were telling others that this is what THEY should do. (Thus me saying "I'm not a moron" - I thought you were insinuating those that buy to be fools.) So now I gotcha!

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by elfyum

[b] So now I gotcha!

Hardly. Time will prove me correct. In fact, it already is.

How could you tell someone to buy right now?

My friend lives in a townhouse that he paid 200k for last year. A specujerk has the exact same unit listed for $180 this year. It'll probably sell for $150k. So much for equity.

I am telling people to rent if they can do the math and understand that it is possible to come out ahead in particular situations. I will no longer respond to you Elfyum because you are clearly unwilling to accept that renting can be good. Not just me, but anybody.

If you would like to continue posting on this thread, please tell us what percentage your PITI is of your income. A lot of people are house poor. I've decided to coin a new term for this thread: rent rich.

Post all of the smilies you want.

I don't think there is anything funny about the bubble , And if Shores9 were totally up front , he'd say the same . It's going to hurt a lot of people . I'd be happy to point you to some relevant websites if really do care about "proving Muggy wrong."

[bale002]

It is simply mathematical that, in view of the probability that prices will continue to fall in the next 6-18 months at least and high PITI, renting is the money-saving decision with respect to buying in most cases, unless one buys outright (thus leaving only taxes and insurance).

Now, we can all be geniuses and predict that in the long-run, real estate prices always go up. Maybe, but not even in all cases (e.g. Houston 1980s compared to today, I believe).

But, in the long-run we are all dead and economic decisions, at least, are largely based on a series of short-runs.

And that is why expectations that prices will continue to fall, or at least stagnate, for the foreseeable future are important in current decision-making.

If someone can afford risking a possible 25%-30% decline in value over the next several years with respect to current asking prices (not to mention what would otherwise be higher taxes and insurance costs) and has other compelling reasons to buy, then by all means, literally, now is the right time.

But those someones are probably in the minority right now.

[shannon94]

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

I



The weather ain't better in Cali. The strip of coast east of I-5 from Santa Barbara to San Diego has nice weather, though chillier than Miami in the winter. The rest of Cali is either chilly+foggy or desert hot. Lots of people moving out of Cali + Florida, but even more are moving in than out.

Also, I stated if the Scripps thing takes off, as in if it spurs along other R+D facilities in the area. Nobody expect Scripps alone to do much.

Correction...more people are leaving Cali than moving in!! (illegals don't count)

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Muggy

Hardly. Time will prove me correct. In fact, it already is.

How could you tell someone to buy right now?

My friend lives in a townhouse that he paid 200k for last year. A specujerk has the exact same unit listed for $180 this year. It'll probably sell for $150k. So much for equity.

I am telling people to rent if they can do the math and understand that it is possible to come out ahead in particular situations. I will no longer respond to you Elfyum because you are clearly unwilling to accept that renting can be good. Not just me, but anybody.

If you would like to continue posting on this thread, please tell us what percentage your PITI is of your income. A lot of people are house poor. I've decided to coin a new term for this thread: rent rich.

Post all of the smilies you want.

I don't think there is anything funny about the bubble , And if Shores9 were totally up front , he'd say the same . It's going to hurt a lot of people . I'd be happy to point you to some relevant websites if really do care about "proving Muggy wrong."

NAR's “Buy Now” message appeared in dozens of well-respected newspapers this week. so it must be true. but I wonder if it was in the National Inquirer cause Inquiring minds want to know.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

And if Shores9 were totally up front , he'd say the same .

Muggy,

I respect your opinion, in fact I think it is one of the better thought out - common sense positions here (at least for you and at this moment).

Rental conditions have been favorable no argument. For the 5 years prior to mid 2005 renters had been leaving the rental market in favor of purchasing. Housing affordability was running at or near a 30 year highs and mortgage rate at a 40 year lows. Renters left their units in mass favoring purchases leaving an unusually high supply of rental units– in addition investors purchased condos, town homes, and houses and in many cases added them to the current supply of rental units. Basic supply demand at play here.

US Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Data:
From the 1950’s -1990’s vacancy rates in the US ranged from the mid 5% (1956) to mid 7% in the much of the 90’s. However vacancy rates climbed to a 50 year high of 10.4% in Q1 2004 and remained close to that through Q1 2005. Since then they have been slowly dropping and currently stand at 9.9% for Q3 2006

One would have been wise to consider renting as an alternative to purchasing with such favorable conditions at least in the short term. But affordability (or lack thereof) has capped the upward push in housing purchases leaving many no option but to rent… demand for rental units is now on the rise. As a result vacancies are falling and apartment rents are expected to increase 5.3% this year — about double last year's increase.

I know this works for you – you have locked a lease at a favorable price (hopefully for at least a year) and have the money to jump on a good deal in the housing market when you choose - but this is not the average person’s position. Most renters (about 30% of households) don’t have the down payment for a home and insofar as current homeowners…. well I own a home, if I didn’t I too would be renting and waiting to steal a home cheap. Problem is I OWN a home! To sell it and hope to repurchase one of similar nature at a lower price would be reckless. I would risk putting my family and myself in a worse position. I would have to gain a 20+% advantage (lower price) to take that risk, after all I would incur selling and purchasing costs that would amount to greater than 15%. IE 6% realtor commissions, title expenses state tax stamps and capital gains tax (if applicable) etc. Further, as prices fall affordability increases and so does purchase activity - stabilizing the fall in prices and leaving me looking for a chair when the music stops.

Another consideration is replacement cost. A 2x4 stud is no longer $1.19 it’s more like $2.69 sheetrock has doubled in the last year, cement up in 5 years from $60 per cubic yard to $150 copper wire…. Everything!!! These prices are not coming down. So who’s leaving what they have selling at a ridiculously low price only to pay through the nose for new so that I can get a 20+% cheaper house.

Yes new home prices have fallen but this is as a result of decisions made 1-2-and 3 years ago. Builders are now laying off staff and selling land which means they expect to build less houses. Their problem is current inventory that was started 1+ years ago. Once that’s gone the party (in new construction and the give-a-ways) is over.

Further, if real estate dropped 20%+ across the board we’d all be in deep - you know what - not just here in the US but globally. Risk and investment in US real estate (either directly or via secondary securities) is spread across the world. A resetting of this nature in real estate prices would have to follow a reset in almost all other values including salaries, raw material prices, food and energy, stock market, corporate share value etc. Basically a depression but on a global level.

I don’t really know how long and far the current trend will continue but I believe it is more behind us than in front of us. I also have to say that the last time we lost year over year value in real estate was in the depression, since then we have 70+ years of appreciation. If in fact we lose this year (and it does not look like we will) so what! With that kind of track record I’d still rather have my money IN real estate.

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Further, if real estate dropped 20%+ across the board we’d all be in deep - you know what - not just here in the US but globally. Risk and investment in US real estate (either directly or via secondary securities) is spread across the world. A resetting of this nature in real estate prices would have to follow a reset in almost all other values including salaries, raw material prices, food and energy, stock market, corporate share value etc. Basically a depression but on a global level.

Sorry but a 20% drop wont even case a small recession. House prices went up 200% in the last 10-15 years. A small drop is insignificent except to those speculators who bought at the peak(their problem)