[bale002]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

add comments

downsize government spending, (Wild Style: who will all those unemployed work for then?)

... and diversify into manufacturing where possible ... (Wild Style: yeppers!, did you hear about the new bio diesel plant coming to Tampa?)

develop cutting-edge service companies, (Wild Style: what do you mean?) ... and ...

as we mentioned, Florida should play into its strengths, like medical technology, solar and other alternative energies, also I believe, for example, that the Miami area is a major international internet hub, etc.

Of course, this will require serious retraining and adjustments in education, so indeed a ten-year restructuring period, and only if done right, with a focus on real productivity and significant downsizing of the financial-insurance-real estate (FIRE) economy. Having said that, cutting-edge services should still also include FIRE-economy type services, but under lean conditions, not under the conditions of a crazed, artificial money-supply and speculation-induced expansion that also embraces the unqualified and shady. We need real economists and managers, not fast-talking swindlers and coattail amateurs.

lower property taxes, (Wild Style: with lower home prices, this will come into play, no?) Yes, if they let the market run its course, the property tax crisis resolves itself.

To Shores9, I agree with Wild Style here that Mr Greenspan has about zero credibility, but I agree with you concerning Warren Buffet: to be sure he is no saint, and who is, but his practical record is worth paying attention to and his moves can be interpreted as leading indicators. By the way, thanks for informing us that Mr Buffet is a big shareholder in Wells Fargo, that helps explain a few things.

Nonetheless, we are still in for a very bumpy ride over the next two-four years at least, probably ten, and it is an open question whether Florida, which I agree still has enormous potential under certain circumstances, will become derailed in terms of realizing this potential, or sort of drift along as it had done for a long time before all this.

Look, as long as we don't starve to death and each one loves his/her family, we'll be alright no matter what happens.

[rogercobb]

Originally Posted by compelled to reply

"Depression"-like? It's not even 1987-like yet. Depressions are, by definition, deep, prolonged, recessions that drag on for at least 10 years. This is a cyclic credit-related bust. I agree with bale002.

I've got to disagree this one. I believe we are in MUCH worse shape as a country than we were in 1987 for a variety of reasons. Our national debt is at $10 trillion, significantly higher than in 1987. According to zfacts.com the national debt in '87 made up approximately 50% of our GDP and now, thanks to Bush, its at 70%. Today there is a much greater gap between the wealthy and poor. Back in 1987 we had very strong leadership from president Reagan with stronger alliances around the globe and a congress that actually worked together to get things done. Our energy situation is a hell of a lot worse now. 60% of our oil is from foreign sources vs. close to 33% in '87 and, even adjusted for inflation, the price of natural gas and crude is much higher today. Unemployment today is at 6.1% and by the last couple months of '87 it was at 5.9% down from 7% early in '87.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by bale002

downsize government spending, (Wild Style: who will all those unemployed work for then?)

... and diversify into manufacturing where possible ... (Wild Style: yeppers!, did you hear about the new bio diesel plant coming to Tampa?)

develop cutting-edge service companies, (Wild Style: what do you mean?) ... and ...

as we mentioned, Florida should play into its strengths, like medical technology, solar and other alternative energies, also I believe, for example, that the Miami area is a major international internet hub, etc.

Of course, this will require serious retraining and adjustments in education, so indeed a ten-year restructuring period, and only if done right, with a focus on real productivity and significant downsizing of the financial-insurance-real estate (FIRE) economy. Having said that, cutting-edge services should still also include FIRE-economy type services, but under lean conditions, not under the conditions of a crazed, artificial money-supply and speculation-induced expansion that also embraces the unqualified and shady. We need real economists and managers, not fast-talking swindlers and coattail amateurs.

lower property taxes, (Wild Style: with lower home prices, this will come into play, no?) Yes, if they let the market run its course, the property tax crisis resolves itself.

To Shores9, I agree with Wild Style here that Mr Greenspan has about zero credibility, but I agree with you concerning Warren Buffet: to be sure he is no saint, and who is, but his practical record is worth paying attention to and his moves can be interpreted as leading indicators. By the way, thanks for informing us that Mr Buffet is a big shareholder in Wells Fargo, that helps explain a few things.

Nonetheless, we are still in for a very bumpy ride over the next two-four years at least, probably ten, and it is an open question whether Florida, which I agree still has enormous potential under certain circumstances, will become derailed in terms of realizing this potential, or sort of drift along as it had done for a long time before all this.

Look, as long as we don't starve to death and each one loves his/her family, we'll be alright no matter what happens.

I agree with the potential outlook of yours. I don't see Broward pulling it off though. Miami, for sure IF as you have said they are smart enough to capitalize on these opportunities.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by compelled to reply

I was referring to the stock collapse that happened in 1987. A lot of similarities right now but not quite as bad.

a better example is the depression that happened from 1873 to 1896. that would be a far more relevant comparison.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

You do realize Mr. Greenspan is one of the MAIN reasons we are in this mess we are in now right?

Looking back on this current financial crisis I think it will become clear that the lack of oversight not only on Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac but also on mortgage backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations, other collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps and other unregulated instruments across the financial markets were the primary cause of our current problem.

Government looked the other way, banks booked huge profits (and equally obscene compensation packages) and the average consumer jumped in head first to take advantage of a quick money score.

Alan Greenspan and the Fed’s responsibility were to control liquidity in the financial markets in response to an economic threat (that 2001-02 recession).

Unfortunately, an unintended consequence of that was to set the stage for low interest rates and as a result a boom in borrowing.

The Fed did not mandate how banks and other lending institutions lent money and by what criteria to approve borrowers.

After Freddie's 2003 accounting scandal, Alan Greenspan became a powerful opponent, and began to call for stricter regulation of the GSEs and limitations on their growth.

In fact if we had listened to him, the White House and many congressional leader (mostly republicans) we might not be having this discussion

[Shores9]

October 2000 US budget surplus of $237 billion (record)
October 2008 US budget deficit $410 billion dollar not including $700 billion bailout (if utilized)
November 4th 2008 new President elect… PRICELESS

[Shores9]

With another big (down) day in stocks -- so far this year, the Dow is off 27.5%; the S&P 500, 30.9%; and the Nasdaq Composite, 32.7%,

This has got to affect those retirees in FLA with their money invested in stock and stock indexed funds. Although I really don’t think a person close to or at retirement should consider in investing in such risk --- but I’m sure there are plenty who have and it will certainly be a painful process.

Unfortunately (just like in real estate) we are all interconnected and what happens to such a large part of our population will affect all

[Lulu101]

If the economy collapses and he loses his job, you may get to move back to NY early.

Originally Posted by TANaples

If not to my husband's job with a NEW YORK SALARY, we would never have moved to Florida.

Sunshine meant nothing.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Looking back on this current financial crisis I think it will become clear that the lack of oversight not only on Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac but also on mortgage backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations, other collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps and other unregulated instruments across the financial markets were the primary cause of our current problem.

Government looked the other way, banks booked huge profits (and equally obscene compensation packages) and the average consumer jumped in head first to take advantage of a quick money score.

Alan Greenspan and the Fed’s responsibility were to control liquidity in the financial markets in response to an economic threat (that 2001-02 recession).

Unfortunately, an unintended consequence of that was to set the stage for low interest rates and as a result a boom in borrowing.

The Fed did not mandate how banks and other lending institutions lent money and by what criteria to approve borrowers.

After Freddie's 2003 accounting scandal, Alan Greenspan became a powerful opponent, and began to call for stricter regulation of the GSEs and limitations on their growth.

In fact if we had listened to him, the White House and many congressional leader (mostly republicans) we might not be having this discussion

If you think that was unintended then you should really look further into the issue. The things you mentioned as far as the financial markets are true but those are effects. The cause was a systemic problem in our F.I.R.E. economy. What we are going through now should have happened anywhere between 1998 to 2001. Instead they used low interest rates, relaxing of regulation and other tools to bring on another bubble to keep the economy going. Now we are paying the price we should have paid almost a decade ago.

[jbravo]

Florida will be fine. Really. Yes, really. I mean for real. No worries. Now go shopping just like your President told you to do after 9/11.