[Shores9]

The signs of stress are starting to show: The U.S. has lost 760,000 jobs since late last year, and retail sales in September plunged 1.2 percent, the largest drop in three years.

With people reluctant to drive because of gas, fearing their jobs and losses in stocks/401’s etc --- spending especially in a state like Florida with tourism as a dominant industry and retirees a large percentage of population will be hit HARD

Dow closed at 8577 down from its high last year at 13930 – a loss of 5353 points and 39% in value


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said this week in Singapore says "House prices in the U.S. are still declining. There are still more losses to come there”. “I don't think we can escape damage to the real economy,". "I think we almost inevitably face a considerable recession."

The Fed's current chairman, Ben Bernanke saying the recent financial turmoil "may well lengthen the period of weak economic performance and further increase the risks to growth."

Translate = we’re going to get hit hard – it’s going to be long – and don’t expect to regain your lost wealth for many years

[TANaples]

My Grandparents lived through the Crash of 1929. My Grandpa had everything invested in the market. He lost everything. My Grandma didn't trust banks. For the 9 years of their marriage to that point she pilfered money, including gold and silver coins, and hid them around the house. Yes, even under the mattress. When they were wiped out in the crash, Grandma had her stash that they were able to survive on. She told me about this when I was very young.

She kept this distrust even into the 1960s when she died. Even though she didn't have a whole lot of money, she had multiple bank accounts. Before she passed away, she told me she also had more money hidden around the house. When we cleaned out her belongings, we found out she wasn't lying. We found money and coins in metal boxes behind kitchen drawers, under the floorboards, etc., etc.

[wacahootaman]

Even though property values are obviously falling, tax assessors in many counties are still raising tax assessments on non homestead property!

The County Tax Mafia is the biggest threat to your well being in these hard times.

[Retiredcoach]

Declining property values, a reduction in tourism (tax) dollars, reduced assessments, and a declining base of property tax paying citizens will spell one solution to Florida politicians.... a tax increase. The key will be how to do it. Do they call it a temporary "revenue enhancer" or will they find a means to disguise the tax? A "temporary" state income tax may on the way to Florida.

How do I know? The same solution to a loss of manufacturing jobs in Pennsylvania enabled politicians to enact a temporary state income tax. That temporary tax has been in place now for over 20 years!!

[Shores9]

Let’s just say it’s going to be a depression in FLA.


Consumers not spending
Foreclosures up
Bankruptcies up
Tourism down
Population down
No state income tax (at least not yet) and limited means for revenue

What will happen when the budget money runs out? Look at California – they are running out of money and in many counties now resorting to laying off police and firefighters.

Good news (both there and here) lots of homes available at cheap prices – bad news no jobs no buyers.

[jbravo]

Originally Posted by Shores9

...Good news ... lots of homes available at cheap prices – bad news no jobs no buyers.

-
Just little bit lower and count me on the buyer+1 column.
-

[58robbo]

Originally Posted by Shores9

As we get uncomfortably close to a "depression like" economy how do you think Florida and Floridians will fare?

There is no doubt at lease in my view the country is headed for recession. By nature it is part of the normal economic cycle occurring in the US about every 10 years since the 70's.

Housing has led the way and now the other shoe looks like its dropping - this time around it has the makings of being particularly harsh - How do you think it will affect Florida?

Here are only a few issues, what are your thoughts? What issues do you feel are relevant?


Employment?? Until recently employment has been relatively solid but over the last few months [nationally] that has changed and with Tourism as Florida's main industry it certainly does not look good. If we move to a national/global recession how will that effect Tourism.
Government?? Another of Florida's largest employers is getting hammered. People are leaving the state and taking tax dollars with them and government is in no position to help. Financial Services? What ever is left of the financial services sector will be shaky at best for many years to come.

Population?? Until 2006 Florida has enjoyed healthy in-migration increasing is population and propping up it's tax base/revenues to the point that state and local governments overspent like drunken sailors. The party is over and now the hangover has set in.

Food and Energy costs?? As if lousy wages and high taxes weren't enough we are getting hammered by the essentials we cannot due without and they are pushing many further into crisis.

Stocks, 401K's Savings?? The stock market has lost 23% from its high last year - In only one day it lost 1.1 trillion dollars and yes there was a rebound but the DOW has been falling and will probably continue well below 10K closer to 8K. How will this affect the average Florida resident? Even if you are not invested in stocks directly or via your 401K the likelihood is if you can cash out [of stocks/401K] you will be reluctant to spend your cash and the days of using your home as an ATM are over.

What do you think will happen and what can we do to make it better!

we need this recession/depression more than ever. will it be the end of the world? no. are we going to have to change a few things, re-align our perceptions of value? almost certainly.

most people see gas prices, unaffordable healthcare, abortion, gays, the credit crunch and terrorism as the huge problems facing our generation.

i don't. i see obesity, instant gratification, personal debt, excessive consumption, mal investment, decay of family, lack of personal responsibility, keeping up with the jones's, living outside our means and loss of individual liberties as the true challenges of our time. most of these will be addressed by a solid bout of negative growth but we have to watch out that we don't allow our government to take anymore of our freedoms to prop up the house of cards. our grandparents survived the depression and were better for it!

how will florida fare? i can't think of anything important(food, shelter and sunshine) that florida has in short supply. that is why i'll be moving back!

[DailyJournalist]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

how will florida fare? i can't think of anything important(food, shelter and sunshine) that florida has in short supply. that is why i'll be moving back!

You are right, Florida does not have a short supply of food and shelter. But the residents do have a short supply of the money required to purchase these goods and services.

[58robbo]

Originally Posted by DailyJournalist

You are right, Florida does not have a short supply of food and shelter. But the residents do have a short supply of the money required to purchase these goods and services.

when the govt stops trying to prop up real estate prices, our shelter will be affordable! most places i know have a bit of garden so there's our food. sunshine? last i checked that was free!


...............at the rate we're going though there'll probably be a new tax on sunshine. either that or some govt organisation will regulate our exposure to the SUN!!! for our own good! lol

[compelled to reply]

Originally Posted by Shores9

No state income tax (at least not yet) and limited means for revenue

If incomes went down, the state lost population and people lost their jobs, then taxable income would decrease anyway.