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In 1918, we had only one fast-spreading pathogen, the Spanish flu. In 2020, we have two: COVID-19, and social media. Thanks to the latter, any anecdote, rumor, or unlikely one-off - no matter how hasty - is canonized like a Catholic saint. You consequently have a large portion of the population convinced that everyone who gets this will lose their toes, get blood clots and strokes, have permanent heart and lung and brain damage, and all their children and grandchildren will be born with Kawasaki's. None of this squares with what we've known since April from serology surveys - that significant chunks of the populace have already had this (one out of every four people in NYC!) - which is a pretty strong litmus test that our ability to incorporate facts that should be reassuring has been compromised.
Couple this with the 24/7 news cycle keeping people glued to the screen with the latest death toll, or the latest hospitalization toll once that gets better, or the latest caseload total once that gets better, and you have a vicious cycle of fear without any off-ramp. A vaccine won't change that because no vaccine that's coming out in the next couple years is going to be 100% effective. In most people's minds, vaccine = virus goes away forever. I expect a brief jubilee when the first vaccine becomes available, but some time after that, the media will be back with sirens blaring about 37 new cases in Delaware and the country will be back to terrified mode. The realization that even with a vaccine we can't make this thing go extinct will startle a lot of people.
(At that point, expect the media's daily COVID death/hospitalization/caseload updates to be replaced with daily updates of how many Americans haven't taken the vaccine yet. Our sociological need for a villain will be filled with media case studies of anti-vaxxers, who are dumb, but who will be factually irrelevant because they'll be just a sliver of the country and since the vaccine isn't going to be 100% effective, even if every single one of them took it at once it still wouldn't make the virus go away. Regardless, expect the media to hold them up as the only obstacle standing between us and the end of the virus. We'll simply be unable to live our lives without having a scapegoat to hate, especially if Trump loses in November.)
What does all this mean for masking mandates? Well, maybe they won't be around forever... but the epistemological context of 2020 is different from the epistemological context of 1918, in a much worse way. We're all under the thumb of social media and the 24/7 news cycle. Consequently, our risk tolerance is lower, our irrationality is higher, and our propensity to accept rumors as fact is through the roof. So, the "off-ramps" of 2020 are different from the "off-ramps" of 1918. Maybe we really do get to a state where we can accept living with the risk of the virus (which is low for most people and is going to be made lower).
But my gut feeling is that if you're planning to live in any city or in any place with substantial population density in the next 5 years, learn to love the mask - not just when you're going indoors to shop, but every moment you step outside.
While I agree with the gist of your post, I'm gonna say this about the part in bold: No friggin' way.
And what's the point of requiring them at the movie theaters when they reopen? Masks until the popcorn munching begins, and it's still safe because ...
If mask wearing when possible selectively cuts the spread, it reduces the "R ratio" or spread ratio below 1.0. That slowly dries up the pandemic.
Whats really funny and sad about it, many of the popular style masks people are wearing, do not even protect against Covid19!! Says it right on the box.
Keep in mind that part of that warning is for legal purposes.
It should be obvious by now that few in American culture feel any need to "protect others". We are an increasingly selfish society where individual freedoms are all that count.
I could see it staying, hypothetically. Let's suppose Covid-19 is miraculously wiped off the face of the earth. Public health officials could say, we noticed that when everyone starting wearing masks, the incidence of influenza went way way down. Flu is a public health hazard. Some people die from flu, and the flu vaccine is only partially effective. If people stop wearing masks, the flu numbers will go up again, so we'd better keep then on.
ETA: I crossposted with the OP. We are thinking the same way.
And...IF there is a Covid vaccine, but it is not 100% effective, I can see not only the public policy staying in place forever but many individuals being firmly determined to wear masks in public for the rest of their lives, no matter what.
In years with very bad flu seasons I might agree, but I wouldn’t want to be wearing masks all the time because seeing people’s faces and facial expressions is an important part of human experience as social animals. So I would want to ditch the masks once the pandemic is over and the case rate is so low that your risk of catching COVID is below a somewhat arbitrary threshold of 1% per decade, or about 8% per lifetime. At this level you would be about 10X as likely to die in a car accident as from COVID.
While I agree with the gist of your post, I'm gonna say this about the part in bold: No friggin' way.
If by "no way" you mean "it won't turn out that way"... then you may be right, and I hope so. It would hardly be rational, and you and I can see that. But you and I are not in charge right now - fear is.
If you mean "no way do I want to be part of anything like that", I couldn't agree more.
Couple this with the 24/7 news cycle keeping people glued to the screen with the latest death toll, or the latest hospitalization toll once that gets better, or the latest caseload total once that gets better, and you have a vicious cycle of fear without any off-ramp. A vaccine won't change that because no vaccine that's coming out in the next couple years is going to be 100% effective. In most people's minds, vaccine = virus goes away forever. I expect a brief jubilee when the first vaccine becomes available, but some time after that, the media will be back with sirens blaring about 37 new cases in Delaware and the country will be back to terrified mode. The realization that even with a vaccine we can't make this thing go extinct will startle a lot of people.
(At that point, expect the media's daily COVID death/hospitalization/caseload updates to be replaced with daily updates of how many Americans haven't taken the vaccine yet. Our sociological need for a villain will be filled with media case studies of anti-vaxxers, who are dumb, but who will be factually irrelevant because they'll be just a sliver of the country and since the vaccine isn't going to be 100% effective, even if every single one of them took it at once it still wouldn't make the virus go away. Regardless, expect the media to hold them up as the only obstacle standing between us and the end of the virus. We'll simply be unable to live our lives without having a scapegoat to hate, especially if Trump loses in November.)
Thank you for your interesting post.
I don't think I am stupid for being antivax. I am ASD (Aspergers) & a vaccine non responder. According to my parents I regressed after being vaccinated 4 times for measles during a time when the US military was requiring + titer, not just proof of immunization, for children born in Japan to be allowed entry.
I was still pro vax, even after my daughter died less than 24 hours after being vaccinated. Eleven years later my youngest son suffered encephalopathy after vaccination & regressed into severe autism. Now at age 16, he is under the care of an immunologist & it was discovered that he has zero antibodies from his childhood immunizations. (Oh the irony) We both have the requisite variants on our cytokine response genes that confirms our non responder status.
I now can't help but wonder if those same variants are correlated with risk of serious adverse events from vaccines. Obviously, we will not be getting the new COVID vax & I am pretty sure that as non responders, it would be irrelevant anyway. I do not think this is a stupid decision.
I started masking us on January 28th because it seemed so obvious (based on people's reports from China, NOT the media) that it was airborne. Even per respiratory droplets. Just so obvious. The whole event was going over everybody's heads & international travel was buzzing along. Mind blowing.
I have one of the few kids with severe autism who can mask, I worked very hard on this, as he is on immunosuppressants to reduce the neuroinflammation in his vaccine damaged brain. I think, he may have a higher risk of catching COVID but a lower risk of cytokine storm from COVID due to this but am not taking any chances. I fully expect to remain masked for the duration, even (especially) way after the vaccine is available for others.
Most people are not sick right now - maybe 1 in 300. At least half of them have symptoms - and so are sitting home, mainly. That leaves 1 in 600 that might be a silent spreader. It's estimated 20% of those are really spreaders, so more like 1 in 3000 seriously matter. That single ONE - that person will infect dozens of others - and that is the main reason we still have a COVID problem.
In one sense you are all correct. It mostly does nothing. Because mostly - no one is sick, and of those that are, few spread it. But since we cannot know which one of the 3000 people this applies to - the only prudent action is to tell everyone to wear one. This is why - even if most people wear one - you may not see a benefit locally, because the one guy that needs to - didn't. And - it explains why - if a few folks don't wear it from time to time - probably doesn't matter - because even if you're the One Guy - it was only for a few days.
Odds are long that you, personally, are the one person the mask is saving me from, but - If you must choose to not participate - fine - but no one needs to hear you whine. If I want to talk you into wearing it - then that's my work, and serves a purpose, for me. But for you to talk me out of wearing it - serves no purpose whatsoever. What's in it for you? Nothing.
STOP THE SPREAD - or BE THE SPREAD. Your choice.
but when does the mask mandate END? When 1/3000 drops to 1/???
I think there is a large percentage of the population that does not agree with mask mandates, however, they play the game anyway. The more everyone complies, the more it becomes the new norm. If all of these people stopped wearing masks, business stopped jumping on the bandwagon by requiring masks, and we started trying to live life normally again, maybe things would change. Isnt that a form of protesting? I mean our society seems to be quite familiar with that this year and if riots and looting are acceptable to get a point across, not wearing a mask should be ok. The mask Nazi's on the other hand have twisted this around to make those who don't agree with them the selfish bad guy that doesn't care about anyone. I am sure that this is how seatbelt and helmet laws originated...everyone is just so concerned about each others safety that they want everyone to do it.
As a society we have become too sensitive. I don't wish death on anyone, but looking at the numbers alone for Covid, I think the death rate is pretty miniscule in the big picture. The positive cases are going up, the death rate isn't following suit...this is a good thing. The more exposure we get the less severe it will become. Yes people will die but you cant make their stories personal which is what the media likes to do in order to scare you into thinking the same will happen to you or your family. Can it? Sure it can, but the risk is minimal. Life is about risk and when you try to eliminate or reduce everyones risk it leads to other problems.
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