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OP I sense your intentions for this thread is to spark intellectual debate. I must warn you though, if this is indeed your intention, you're not going to get too far. Unfortunately, a lot of people on both sides have been brain washed to see their side as some sort of world savior and the other side as an evil entity that is trying to destroy the world. This leads people to disregard logic and reasoning and resort to saying, "We can blow your country up first", or "more people like my country then yours", or "your country will collapse." "Cold War" which is just a period of heightened geopolitical tension, but posters are already bringing up hot war issues. Can't blame them, were all human and subject to tribalism at the end of the day. Be prepared.
This is the Great Debates forum, where we hold to a higher standard. "To spark intelligent debate" is the entire purpose of this forum, and participants in these debates are expected to support their assertions with facts.
Please discuss the topic and not fellow debate participants. If you see anything posted that you consider to be questionable, then you are free to refute what was posted.
My question is this: who would win this Cold War? What would the situation look like in 2050? Will USA still remain at the top despite being hit hard with covid pandemic? Will China catch up with USA and there will be two global powers? Will China suppress USA?
What do you predict?
I don't see two willing participants in a Cold War. All China needs to do is continue what they are currently doing and they continue to improve their economic standing. The US does need to stir something up though to change the current situation. We would have to be able to convince other nations to join forces with us, and I think that won't be easy, unless China slips up badly in some way.
It seems China has already passed the US up, we just don't seem to realize it yet. Our path forward to regain our dominance will be extremely difficult. We don't seem to have the willing workforce in place. It seems the world is slowly moving away from the dollar so what will be our driving force going forward?
I share similar sentiment but then question arises, who would stop China if not USA? Do we let them continue to run wild and suppress the will of their own citizens as well as new territory they “conquer”? At what point do other developed counties say this is enough?
If the EU is willing to step up and stand with the US, then together we can stand up against China. But not the US alone.
The US let China be conquered by Communists and did little about it. It let China be overrun by Japan and did little about it. Why would we suddenly put our well-being at risk over China, when we've never really cared before and now that China is much more powerful than it was before?
If the EU is willing to step up and stand with the US, then together we can stand up against China. But not the US alone.
The US let China be conquered by Communists and did little about it. It let China be overrun by Japan and did little about it. Why would we suddenly put our well-being at risk over China, when we've never really cared before and now that China is much more powerful than it was before?
Communist is a political party, it is no different than Republicans and Democrats. Are you selling your used stuff online? You will get a form 1099 to file with your tax now. Why? Because the Democrats passed the $600 cumulative transaction reporting requirement.
Communist China, under Chairman Mao socialism policy (state own, central planning), the people were poor and many people die of starvation. But under Chairman Deng, the country implemented a capitalist policy in the late 70s and the country didn't look back.
In just 40 years, they are accomplished so much. They brought a billion of people out of poverty. They have high-speed rail connected the country. They have world-class cities.
Contrast to Democracy US, under the 1 system two parties, Republican/Democrats, what have we accomplished? The "leaderships" here each are in policy for 40 to 50 years. Many of them are older than we are alive. Each year, the national debt grows bigger and bigger. They said no problem, we have a printing press, we just can print the money and the debt will just vanish.
Each year, the Bill that signed into law go longer and longer. For example, the Build Back Better Act, 2500 pages. If you want these big items, you must allow these anti-privacy items and accept to grant the federal government more power.
The politicians talk a lot of stuff like renewable energy, high-speed rail, etc... Of course, they just talk and send money to their buddies. Everything will be over budget and never accomplish anything. Project will fail or get canceled.
Until we replaced we implement term limit and replace the "leadership" in this country, this country has no home. No of these leadership will be leaving. They will be staying until they drop. There are simply too much money to be made.
The United States and China are certainly strategic rivals. But that it and itself does not constitute a cold war.
The historical Cold War arose because the Soviet Union was ideologically communist, and dedicated to exporting communism around the world in the form of fomenting and materially enabling communist revolutions. China does not do that. Its communism exists in little more than name, and is embraced as a theoretical (but not practical) concept for domestic political reasons. Quite to the contrary of tenets of Marx and Lenin, China's strategic power is built upon decidedly capitalist means. It is certainly less expansionist and revanchist (the irony) than Russia.
As for Taiwan, it is far more useful to China as it is now than reabsorbed. Right now Taiwan serves as a raison d'etre for Beijing. It is a symbol of the ongoing struggle of the revolution against counterrevolutionary foes. It represents a rallying cry to the nation. It justifies anything the Chinese Communist Party wants it to justify. Taiwan is a very useful boogeyman for the party. And it essentially costs nothing. It's not so different from the way places like the Falklands, Gibraltar, and Guantanamo serve Buenos Aires, Madrid, and Havana, respectively.
There will be strategic conflict. It could conceivably even get hot at some point, but I doubt it. Major powers have gotten quite good at keeping their conflicts indirect over the past 75 years, and China doesn't even foster the creations of proxies that could serve them in such a manner. They seem to understand the power of markets even while pretending to be communists.
The bygone USSR is simply a poor analog for modern China.
Take a look at the infrastructure of a medium sized Chinese city. Then look at our run down crumbling concrete in our largest cities. Take a look at their high speed rail lines that traverse the country, then take an Amtrak ride and watch the cows pass you. We used to brag that we had the tallest buildings, now we're not even a mention in the new history books. We used to brag about everything American. What's American these days besides military weapons?
It's like the US is waking up late from a nap with our infrastructure bill. It won't even make a dent, and there are Americans bailing out on some of our big cities, moving because of covid or politics, and there are plenty that actually want our big cities to fail.
Somebody argued that China is going to lose half its population. So what if they do? They will still have 3 times as many people as the US, people who get a better education and have the motivation to build that we had at the turn of the last century. All the "yea but China is going to fail because of x" arguments have all not come true, it's an arrogance within the US, conceited, head in the sand approach that may take us down. May the gods help us if the rest of the world stops agreeing to use US currency as reserve currency because of our debt.
Personally I feel the divisiveness within the US has financial repercussions that could cripple us. Look at what our congress gets done. United we stand, divided we fall? Rome? Something to ponder.
Take a look at the infrastructure of a medium sized Chinese city. Then look at our run down crumbling concrete in our largest cities. Take a look at their high speed rail lines that traverse the country, then take an Amtrak ride and watch the cows pass you. We used to brag that we had the tallest buildings, now we're not even a mention in the new history books. We used to brag about everything American. What's American these days besides military weapons?
It's like the US is waking up late from a nap with our infrastructure bill. It won't even make a dent, and there are Americans bailing out on some of our big cities, moving because of covid or politics, and there are plenty that actually want our big cities to fail.
Somebody argued that China is going to lose half its population. So what if they do? They will still have 3 times as many people as the US, people who get a better education and have the motivation to build that we had at the turn of the last century. All the "yea but China is going to fail because of x" arguments have all not come true, it's an arrogance within the US, conceited, head in the sand approach that may take us down. May the gods help us if the rest of the world stops agreeing to use US currency as reserve currency because of our debt. Personally I feel the divisiveness within the US has financial repercussions that could cripple us. Look at what our congress gets done. United we stand, divided we fall? Rome? Something to ponder.
I think that the divisiveness within the US has already crippled us to an alarming degree. Certainly here in the U.S. there is often not enough bipartisan cooperation between the two, major political parties to get things done -- unlike in China with its one-party system.
I'm not saying that China's one-party, authoritarian system of government is in any way ideal, but then neither is our own two-party system of government. The main roadblock to getting things done here in the U.S. is that, when one party proposes something, the other party invariably opposes that same thing. Even when a necessary proposal is made by one party or the other, way too often one party will view any concession towards the opposite party as being a sign of disloyalty towards their own party.
With the recent, promising support for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan, perhaps we may finally see some change. On the other hand, there is Georgia congresswoman Marjory Taylor Greene proclaiming that any Republican who votes for this proposal is a "traitor," -- her elemental conviction being that Republicans "should not vote with Democrats to help Biden achieve anything." Greene's sentiments are echoed by several other members of the Republican party. It often seems as though U.S. politics are more about "winning" (as in team sports competitions) than about serving the nation.
It should come as no surprise to anyone that, while our politicians are busily bickering with each other, China is steadily moving forward in leaps and bounds.
For all these posts about how China has a greater economy and China has already won and China is forging ahead, shouldn't there be some sort of evidence offered?
In 2005 the Chinese stock market index stood at 3250; today it is at 3600.
In 2005 the US DOW average was 19,000; today it is at 36,400, so what evidence is there that China's economy has "surged" ahead and has "already won" some sort of contest?
The US central bank warned that China's ongoing property woes could elevate financial stresses in China, which could further strain global financial markets and negatively affect the United States. Evergrande, China's largest and most indebted developer, is now being joined by other monster developers on the road to a bankrupty so large in threatens world stability. There are more than 50 ghost cities in China where people have either moved out of never moved in. Evergrande and others built these cities and 65 million apartments on orders from the government so that reports of growth would seem to be true.
For evidence I will turn to Patrick Boyle. He has many presentations on his website, so I will let you pick one.
Even the reported Chinese population is suspect. Demographers point out discrepancies in the population numbers which indicate that China is already losing population.
Posters who shrug off population decline are not aware that the after-effects of the one-child policy have created a massive population imbalance that has placed extreme pressure on its work force. The future workers of China will have to contend with a 1-2-4 structure.... That is, each working adult (himself a single child) will have to support 2 parents and 4 grandparents.
No economist believes a country could possibly continue growing while suffering such a decline in population as faces China.
Those who believe the Chinese tale of success and superiority has been fed a line of bull from Xi Jingping.
China has been in a cold war with the west for decades. This is only a "new" cold war insofar as some in Western policymaking circles are only now realizing you can't buy China's benevolence by liberalizing trade relations with them alone.
But of course now it's a much more intractable situation than the Soviet cold war was because so many powerful people and institutions in the west have so much invested in China that they'd rather cede to China's hegemony than lose their investments. Just as China planned it.
Nothing captures the amoral ethos of today's global economic actors more succinctly than Nike CEO Jon Donohue proclaiming "Nike is a brand of China, for China."
Communist is a political party, it is no different than Republicans and Democrats.
Stop right there.
Have you been to Communist countries and seen Communism at work? I have. Communism is not the same as (most) Republicans and (most) Democrats; it's an evil, oppressive system that creates poverty and eliminates freedom.
Ideally, Communism would be eradicated from the face of the Earth.
But my point is that affairs within China, and even lots of affairs in East Asia and Central Asia never have concerned the US, as awful as they may be. It'd be nuts for the US to start showing interest now, when doing so could put the US at risk of destruction and devastation (via a war with China).
I'm not risking my livelihood for that part of the globe.
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