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Looks like Lithuania is experiencing a change of heart. Lithuania's government stance against China is polling very low. One has to ask why would their government take such action. As I see it the situation points to influence by outside countries. Probably in a effort to make Taiwan look strong and gather EU citizens support for stronger actions against China. In any conflict the U.S. will need Europe. Problem is Germany wants to make money off China, France is tired of being told what to do, and the U.K., well they left the E.U. so no one really cares what they think anymore.
Good article. Obviously, China has economic muscle and they use it.
In time, China will become irrelevant but that will take many years. In the meantime the only warfare I see is an economic one.
China is interested in expanding themselves economically, but I don't think they will succeed.
Then why is China stockpiling food?, a LOT of food.
There seems to be a different answer every time that question is asked.
My favorite answers are, "Because they experienced a famine once that killed 60M people, and COVID now threatens supply chains everywhere" and "Because it drives up the price, so storing vast quantities of rice and corn is actually not only prudent but profitable."
My least favorite is "Because they know they are going to war."
China is not going to engage in a shooting war. They could not possible win.
Lots of countries have rice and beans stored in containers for use in some emergency. That doesn't mean they are going to start something.
The Cold War will be reignited to a much larger scale if NATO brings in the Ukraine. Russia will consider this an aggressive expansion on their border. Of course, NATO and other sovereign nations are and should be free to join alliances as they see fit. I’m just saying the Ukraine, having once been a part of the Soviet Union and later becoming part of the western alliance which brought the Soviets down… will provoke war.
This is especially true since we provide the Ukrainians with so much weaponry, arming them to fight Russia the same way the Soviets armed the North Vietnamese to fight US. As far as China is concerned, a NATO(U.S.) vs Russia military conflict will only make them closer with Russia. A Russia/China/North Korean military alliance would be dangerous indeed. Let’s see what happens
There seems to be a different answer every time that question is asked.
My favorite answers are, "Because they experienced a famine once that killed 60M people, and COVID now threatens supply chains everywhere" and "Because it drives up the price, so storing vast quantities of rice and corn is actually not only prudent but profitable."
My least favorite is "Because they know they are going to war."
China is not going to engage in a shooting war. They could not possible win.
Lots of countries have rice and beans stored in containers for use in some emergency. That doesn't mean they are going to start something.
It would be a war of currency, backed by Russian cyber attacks; to weaken the greenback.
However, and in support of your favorite answer; China has also experience major recent crop failures due to flooding...due to climate change.
So this is a very plausible reason to stock up, or being smart as the Chinese are; we all know the less likely reason.
Looking past the day to day horrible situation in Ukraine, I was pondering the impact of that war on China's influence in the long term.
One point I have not seen discussed much is China's view on the US/EU kicking Russia out of the international banking infrastructure. I think China would have taken note that a lot of the global finance infrastructure is run by US/EU institutions, and will be looking to create it's own global infrastructure in the future so that it is not reliant on the west. I doubt they will be able to match the current infrastructure any time soon, but they might be able to create infrastructure encompassing the countries they influence - parts of Asia, Africa and Russia (the last done quietly and at an opportune moment so as not to bring western sanctions on China).
For example the global transaction service SWIFT is run by a Belgian corporative. I imagine China would not want to be dependant on a Belgian corporative for it's international transactions in the future. China already has a competitor - CIPS, but it is not widespread. I can see a push to roll out CIPS to more countries in the coming years.
Unfortunately I see the last month's events as driving further global division. But not in the way Putin hoped (cracks between western countries, when the opposite has happened), nor between Russia and NATO (Russia is a shadow of the USSR and simply does not have the ability to be a superpower), but between EU/US and China. I see China (and also India to a lesser extent) wanting to have more control of the global infrastructure they use, to reduce the power the US/EU has over them.
Looking past the day to day horrible situation in Ukraine, I was pondering the impact of that war on China's influence in the long term.
One point I have not seen discussed much is China's view on the US/EU kicking Russia out of the international banking infrastructure. I think China would have taken note that a lot of the global finance infrastructure is run by US/EU institutions, and will be looking to create it's own global infrastructure in the future so that it is not reliant on the west. I doubt they will be able to match the current infrastructure any time soon, but they might be able to create infrastructure encompassing the countries they influence - parts of Asia, Africa and Russia (the last done quietly and at an opportune moment so as not to bring western sanctions on China).
For example the global transaction service SWIFT is run by a Belgian corporative. I imagine China would not want to be dependant on a Belgian corporative for it's international transactions in the future. China already has a competitor - CIPS, but it is not widespread. I can see a push to roll out CIPS to more countries in the coming years.
Unfortunately I see the last month's events as driving further global division. But not in the way Putin hoped (cracks between western countries, when the opposite has happened), nor between Russia and NATO (Russia is a shadow of the USSR and simply does not have the ability to be a superpower), but between EU/US and China. I see China (and also India to a lesser extent) wanting to have more control of the global infrastructure they use, to reduce the power the US/EU has over them.
That is a very good post. The problem of course is that banking and global finance are on paper. The real, ongoing economies of Russia, China and Africa are no match for the West's economy, even if undefined "parts of Asia" are thrown in. If China is split off from the world economy, even partially, this basically is an exercise in flipping baseball cards.
Looking past the day to day horrible situation in Ukraine, I was pondering the impact of that war on China's influence in the long term.
One point I have not seen discussed much is China's view on the US/EU kicking Russia out of the international banking infrastructure. I think China would have taken note that a lot of the global finance infrastructure is run by US/EU institutions, and will be looking to create it's own global infrastructure in the future so that it is not reliant on the west. I doubt they will be able to match the current infrastructure any time soon, but they might be able to create infrastructure encompassing the countries they influence - parts of Asia, Africa and Russia (the last done quietly and at an opportune moment so as not to bring western sanctions on China).
For example the global transaction service SWIFT is run by a Belgian corporative. I imagine China would not want to be dependant on a Belgian corporative for it's international transactions in the future. China already has a competitor - CIPS, but it is not widespread. I can see a push to roll out CIPS to more countries in the coming years.
Unfortunately I see the last month's events as driving further global division. But not in the way Putin hoped (cracks between western countries, when the opposite has happened), nor between Russia and NATO (Russia is a shadow of the USSR and simply does not have the ability to be a superpower), but between EU/US and China. I see China (and also India to a lesser extent) wanting to have more control of the global infrastructure they use, to reduce the power the US/EU has over them.
Excellent points. I believe you are correct in that China and to some extent other nations are in the process of creating their own financial infrastructure or lessening their dependence on the current Western backed system. The Russian – Ukraine war wasn't the wakeup call. It was the war on terrorism. This is when the U.S. started to go bunkers with using the dollar as a weapon. Venezuela and Iran cemented this fact. In the case of China, they've been trying for years, and are starting to gain traction. The Yuan is projected to rise to 10% of world reserves in the next decade. Russia and China have scrapped the dollar in most of their trade and China is using its economic influence as you stated to get its customers to conduct transactions in the Yuan. Saudi Arabia is even considering selling oil to China in the Yuan as opposed to the dollar which has been the case since the 70s. This could just be bluffing to get the Biden administration to cave to their demands.
Now this is a double edge sword. When your country's currency becomes a world reserve currency its value increases making exports more expense therefore hurting manufacturing operations. Any gain by China will eventually hurt the dollar which has fallen to 59% of global reserves. Our current living standards and ability to sanction is dependent upon the dollar being the world's reserves currency. All of this points to globalism dying and the world dividing into spheres.
Excellent points. I believe you are correct in that China and to some extent other nations are in the process of creating their own financial infrastructure or lessening their dependence on the current Western backed system. The Russian – Ukraine war wasn't the wakeup call. It was the war on terrorism. This is when the U.S. started to go bunkers with using the dollar as a weapon. Venezuela and Iran cemented this fact. In the case of China, they've been trying for years, and are starting to gain traction. The Yuan is projected to rise to 10% of world reserves in the next decade. Russia and China have scrapped the dollar in most of their trade and China is using its economic influence as you stated to get its customers to conduct transactions in the Yuan. Saudi Arabia is even considering selling oil to China in the Yuan as opposed to the dollar which has been the case since the 70s. This could just be bluffing to get the Biden administration to cave to their demands.
Now this is a double edge sword. When your country's currency becomes a world reserve currency its value increases making exports more expense therefore hurting manufacturing operations. Any gain by China will eventually hurt the dollar which has fallen to 59% of global reserves. Our current living standards and ability to sanction is dependent upon the dollar being the world's reserves currency. All of this points to globalism dying and the world dividing into spheres.
A third party to keep an eye on is India. Another billion person country, with a rapidly growing economy, though with large parts severely underdeveloped. I worked for many years as a liaison between my US based company and Indian contractors, including visiting India a number of times. The political temperature on the ground there was very much for India to do what is in its self interests and not defer to either the west or China/Russia, except where they get something in return. That can be seen in the position India has been taking on Ukraine.
Strangely India have been more vocal than China in wanting to continue to do business with Russia - including publicly putting out tenders for Russian goods (where China seem to be contemplating the same but under the carpet). In my opinion (guess) that is because India feel it less likely that the US/EU will oppose them for trading with Russia, as India is strategically important for the west especially as a counterweight to China in the region.
A third party to keep an eye on is India. Another billion person country, with a rapidly growing economy, though with large parts severely underdeveloped. I worked for many years as a liaison between my US based company and Indian contractors, including visiting India a number of times. The political temperature on the ground there was very much for India to do what is in its self interests and not defer to either the west or China/Russia, except where they get something in return. That can be seen in the position India has been taking on Ukraine.
Strangely India have been more vocal than China in wanting to continue to do business with Russia - including publicly putting out tenders for Russian goods (where China seem to be contemplating the same but under the carpet). In my opinion (guess) that is because India feel it less likely that the US/EU will oppose them for trading with Russia, as India is strategically important for the west especially as a counterweight to China in the region.
India stands the most to gain in a fractured world. They maintain good relations with the West, Russia, and up until recently China. They have a large advanced military so they don't have to depend on another nation for security. Economics is were they are lacking. If they play their cards right, India could be set up nicely for the future.
The US threatened China but not India on trading with Russia.
Africa seems to be the biggest recipient of Russian exports (wheat).
And Biden only seems to be worried about Europe..Germany in particular since they had to be bullied into falling in line with the US.
All is not as it seems......
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