Towne Lake Worsening? (Houston, Sugar Land, Missouri City: rentals, mortgage, how much)

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by hbcu

Look at Paetow -
https://schools.texastribune.org/dis...w-high-school/

Morton Ranch
https://schools.texastribune.org/dis...h-high-school/

Maybe Creek
https://schools.texastribune.org/dis...k-high-school/

That's HISD/Alief numbers so imagine 10 more years

I don't get what I'm supposed to be looking at? 93% of kids graduate at these Katy High Schools in 4 years, while HISD is 84%. The SAT average is higher for these schools too.

Also what does time have to do with this. The schools in this area scored roughly the same 10 years ago, except a smaller Hispanic population and a larger white one. It was still majority-minority. Mayde Creek has arguably improved as a school in the last 10 years according to rankings. Paetow opened a few years ago.
The main change in North Katy has been white residents being replaced by Hispanic residents but it has always been a heavily Hispanic area. When I was in elementary their was an entire ESL class, that was mostly Hispanic and it felt like a quarter or more of my regular class was also Hispanic. Of the school's with over 50% economically disadvantaged, the Katy High Schools are ranked the highest of almost all of the non-magnet, non-charter schools in Texas.

Like maybe their was a decline sometime, but the schools are roughly the same if not slightly bettter than they were 10 years ago compared to today. I don't see how 10 more years will make them sink to Houston level, when graduation rates in Morton Ranch improved from 90% to 93%. The homes are twice as expensive as 10 years ago and the median income of 77494 went from 66,000 to 76,000 in those 10 years too.
https://www.chron.com/news/houston-t...to-3500501.php

[hbcu]

homes are twice as expensive but you have more renters out there now - you've seen how quickly those numbers have swung - already have in Brookshire and Waller also

demographics changed literally overnight - that tells you there's a serious divide in the district

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by hbcu

homes are twice as expensive but you have more renters out there now - you've seen how quickly those numbers have swung - already have in Brookshire and Waller also

demographics changed literally overnight - that tells you there's a serious divide in the district

The demographic divide isn’t that serious. The whitest HS in Katy is Katy High School at 46% White. The least White is probably Mayde Creek at 13%. Most South Katy schools are between 35%-40% White for HS. On the flip notion the most Hispanic school is Morton ranch at 58%. The least Hispanic school is Seven Lakes at 25% Hispanic. As far as I’m concerned the divide isn’t that deep. Most South Katy High schools are between 25-30% Hispanic.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

The demographic divide isn’t that serious. The whitest HS in Katy is Katy High School at 46% White. The least White is probably Mayde Creek at 13%. Most South Katy schools are between 35%-40% White for HS. On the flip notion the most Hispanic school is Morton ranch at 58%. The least Hispanic school is Seven Lakes at 25% Hispanic. As far as I’m concerned the divide isn’t that deep. Most South Katy High schools are between 25-30% Hispanic.

What about the perceived economic divide?

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

What about the perceived economic divide?

It’s there don’t get me wrong but at the end of the day we are talking about a middle class income of 76,000 for 77449 that only looks worse than it is because the homes in the neighborhood doesn’t reflect than income. This is versus the wealthiest part 77494 that’s 142,000 USD. Take in mind 77449 has the median household income of Deer Park or East Round Rock.

Then let’s look at other sorts of the North vs South divide.
77084 (fairly small part with incomes closer to 77449)- 66,000
77493- 92,000
77450- 94,000
77094- 165,000

Now are they equal. No, 77084 which is directly above 77094 has a 100,000 USD income gap. But both of these are small part of the area. North Katy is roughly around ~80,000 and rising. South Katy is just over ~120,000 USD. The gap exists but it’s not as dramatic as people make it seem.

[DabOnEm]

That's likely due to the newer neighborhoods which are bringing in people with decent salaries who don't want to be too far away from I-10, but still want to be in Katy ISD. A lot of these people are ironically alumni (graduated sometime in the 00s) of the North Katy high schools, so they're younger and ascending the career ladder. There's also quite a few from the South Katy high schools who couldn't afford to move into the neighborhoods they grew up in (yet).

It remains to be seen how this area ages, and if the people who moved into the starter homes decide to "move on up" and go to the other side of 99. I know one family where this already happened as they moved from Mason Lakes to Elyson a couple years ago.

$20k+ is still a pretty decent income gap though.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

It’s there don’t get me wrong but at the end of the day we are talking about a middle class income of 76,000 for 77449 that only looks worse than it is because the homes in the neighborhood doesn’t reflect than income. This is versus the wealthiest part 77494 that’s 142,000 USD. Take in mind 77449 has the median household income of Deer Park or East Round Rock.

Then let’s look at other sorts of the North vs South divide.
77084 (fairly small part with incomes closer to 77449)- 66,000
77493- 92,000
77450- 94,000
77094- 165,000

Now are they equal. No, 77084 which is directly above 77094 has a 100,000 USD income gap. But both of these are small part of the area. North Katy is roughly around ~80,000 and rising. South Katy is just over ~120,000 USD. The gap exists but it’s not as dramatic as people make it seem.

Thanks for the data!

[hbcu]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

That's likely due to the newer neighborhoods which are bringing in people with decent salaries who don't want to be too far away from I-10, but still want to be in Katy ISD. A lot of these people are ironically alumni (graduated sometime in the 00s) of the North Katy high schools, so they're younger and ascending the career ladder. There's also quite a few from the South Katy high schools who couldn't afford to move into the neighborhoods they grew up in (yet).

It remains to be seen how this area ages, and if the people who moved into the starter homes decide to "move on up" and go to the other side of 99. I know one family where this already happened as they moved from Mason Lakes to Elyson a couple years ago.

$20k+ is still a pretty decent income gap though.

Just look at Mayde Creek as an example - normally when demographic change happens it spreads - just see Houston as an example

You have a 10-15 year run before things change in a starter area - once these developer driven rentals, new rental homes communities start going it happens quickly - 529 and Fry is a perfect example - Didn't take too long to get that rep

Unless you get some zoning that rapid development won't slow down On the north end as the land is cheaper

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by hbcu

Just look at Mayde Creek as an example - normally when demographic change happens it spreads - just see Houston as an example

You have a 10-15 year run before things change in a starter area - once these developer driven rentals, new rental homes communities start going it happens quickly - 529 and Fry is a perfect example - Didn't take too long to get that rep

Unless you get some zoning that rapid development won't slow down On the north end as the land is cheaper

I hear what you saying but Mayde Creek improved as a school since 2010. Also the majority demographic change is Mayde Creek area getting 10-15% more Hispanic and 10-15% less white. Hispanics have been the largest group in Mayde Creek for decades. People were saying the area would decline in 2008. It didn’t decline then, with a better school and a higher income I don’t see why it would decline now. It’s in its relative state for the time being.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by hbcu

Just look at Mayde Creek as an example - normally when demographic change happens it spreads - just see Houston as an example

You have a 10-15 year run before things change in a starter area - once these developer driven rentals, new rental homes communities start going it happens quickly - 529 and Fry is a perfect example - Didn't take too long to get that rep

Unless you get some zoning that rapid development won't slow down On the north end as the land is cheaper

Zoning to prohibit further entry-level home development isn't justified. I've already been through this.