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Old 10-05-2016, 05:07 PM
 
Location: Aurora, ME
749 posts, read 419,475 times
Reputation: 601

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Here, in Aurora, ME, 60F Degrees. Dewpoint 49F Degrees. Wind NNW 5 MPH...There was frost on our vehicle again this morning, contrary to forecast of 36F...Beautiful and clear morning...The Fall Foliage viewing during our commute to home was extravagant and so amazing!
It was one of those days at work...They actually paid us for having fun! Truly, though, we are REALLY hard workers (the best in the bakery), yet, still manage to have fun...That's what it's all about..no matter what you do, do it with passion...At the end of the day, you'll feel fulfilled and bless all of those around you...Sometimes...it returns!
Haven't had a chance to check on Matthew, yet, I know my life will be lived the same...as if it was my last day!
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:13 PM
 
Location: Bishkek/Charleston
2,277 posts, read 2,657,664 times
Reputation: 1463
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
No Bridge? Just Walk across through the river. We used to do that at some point (before 1800?)

https://twitter.com/JWatson_Wx/statu...29111336386560
Before 1800?
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:22 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,548 posts, read 75,414,786 times
Reputation: 16634
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al G View Post
Before 1800?
Lol. 1700? No idea about bridges but Im not talking about wood logs over small rivers. How many bridges were around in 1700s?
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,548 posts, read 75,414,786 times
Reputation: 16634
Future radar loop.

Watch the rain bands come in then this WRF model brings entire eye on land tomorrow afternoon

That white you see on the map isnt clouds.. its snow.

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nm...loop_1hour.gif

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Old 10-05-2016, 05:24 PM
 
7,260 posts, read 4,636,661 times
Reputation: 2105
Recon finding weaker Cat 2 winds but pressure remaining steady = it's still trying to reorganize itself after Cuba. With pressure not rising (weakening if so) it's still capable of pulling itself back together somewhat quickly. Satellite indicates storms firing up currently and steadily so overnight likely regaining some winds back. Even though conditions favorable for strengthening, it likely has less then 36 hours to do so before slow weakening begins.
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:31 PM
 
Location: MID ATLANTIC
8,676 posts, read 22,931,729 times
Reputation: 10517
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I better not see anyone blame forecasters. Period.


All we have are the tools available and thats all they can go by. There is still a spread with models and 25 miles East or West with the center will make a big difference in outcome.


https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/stat...60298670972928
Lol, that is one crazy map - a seriously good laugh. I'd like to see a forecaster slap that on the screen. I can only begin to imagine reaction, "but, but......"
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,548 posts, read 75,414,786 times
Reputation: 16634
Nice timing graphic by TWC. BTW, plane flying around in it now might be weakened even more. Does it even have room to strengthen a lot before Florida??


https://twitter.com/TomNiziol/status/783811538914152449

Last edited by Cambium; 10-05-2016 at 05:48 PM..
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
276 posts, read 338,657 times
Reputation: 531
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Nice timing graphic by TWC. BTW, plane flying around in it now might be weakened even more. Does it even have room to strengthen a lot before Florida??


https://twitter.com/TomNiziol/status/783811538914152449
Nice graphic!

But unlikely scenario, there's only a 32% chance of 74MPH winds (64 knots) in Daytona Beach...

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 39(77) 9(86) X(86) X(86)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) 13(53) 1(54) X(54)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32)
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:18 PM
 
Location: Orcutt, CA (Santa Maria Valley)
3,314 posts, read 2,218,485 times
Reputation: 960
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Nice timing graphic by TWC. BTW, plane flying around in it now might be weakened even more. Does it even have room to strengthen a lot before Florida??


https://twitter.com/TomNiziol/status/783811538914152449
My Grandma lives in Port Orange, FL! She will get the worst of the Hurricane force winds! Port Orange is basically a bedroom community for Daytona Beach.

I also have 2 other cousins living in Palm Bay,FL as well. I'm also worried about them too.

Last edited by Thunder98; 10-05-2016 at 06:46 PM..
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,112 posts, read 29,604,933 times
Reputation: 8819
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neosec View Post
Nice graphic!

But unlikely scenario, there's only a 32% chance of 74MPH winds (64 knots) in Daytona Beach...

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 39(77) 9(86) X(86) X(86)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) 13(53) 1(54) X(54)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32)
Most models bring the centre of the low onshore, so I think Daytona Beach will easily see hurricane-force winds. I think people are being way too complacent with this.
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