Atlantic - Maria forms Sept 16, 2017 (days, storms, season, degree)

[ersatz]

That was quick.

This TS is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane and, for now, travel along much the same path that Irma did.

[Cambium]

Thanks for starting the thread. This season seems like you cant blink! Lol.

https://twitter.com/DanielleDozier/s...58118139006976

[Cambium]

5pm Update on Maria: Moving fast at 20mph!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 52.6W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 52.6 West. Maria is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A slower
west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, Maria is expected to approach the
Leeward Islands on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Maria is forecast to be a hurricane when it
approaches the Leeward Islands early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

[Cambium]

Latest Tracks from the Hurricane Models






Hurricane Model Intensity projections. Most get Maria into a Cat 2 category. Couple into 3 and a few stay at 1


Same link as above







Edit: They haven't updated "Fifteen" into Maria yet as the title. These are saved still images so wont change here. Only with link

[ersatz]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Thanks for starting the thread. This season seems like you cant blink! Lol.

You took a moment to sneeze and I beat you to it. Seriously, was that a TD for what, a few hours?

I've been watching it since it was just off Capo Verde as a tropical wave with a 20% chance of development. Gotta keep an eye on those big thunderstorms rolling out of West Africa this time of year. I always do, but they've been smothered in Saharan dust and shredded by wind shear out in the Atlantic for the past few years.

[JRR]

For those people in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, etc. who are trying to get their lives back together after Irma, facing anther storm so soon has to be devastating.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by JRR

For those people in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, etc. who are trying to get their lives back together after Irma, facing anther storm so soon has to be devastating.

And it's forecasted to be a Cat 3 over PR. But I think Irma missed PR, I forget. Maybe just clipped them?


6:45am EST map with dew points on.







Time to update and check the latest... hang on..

[Cambium]

5am NHC update:: Still only a Tropical Storm but will become a hurricane later today and she is slowing down now.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 54.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 54.9 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Maria will likely become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

[Psychoma]

Yep, can pop up quick! Went from a tiny blob to a more classic spin quickly! Thanks for starting thread!

11aEST: Winds 65mph, moving WNW 15mph, pressure 994mb. Dry air getting into western side of storm slowing down strengthening rate temporarily. Forecast to be around a Cat3 near Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico this week after passing as a hurricane through portions of Lesser Antilles region. For storm track the NHC mentioned their going with the slightly more southern route "closest to the ECMWF and HCCA models, which have been doing very well this hurricane season."

[Cambium]

Latest Canadian model doesn't like South Florida. #OnlyOne.