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Old 05-18-2016, 06:12 AM
 
1,767 posts, read 1,741,766 times
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No one can answer your question with any certainty, you have to stick to your plan. At best you will receive educated guesses which is what I have as well.


There will always be reasons to be short the market but at times certain signals start flashing the caution sign such as higher than norm valuations & lower yields. Right now and has been for several years the valuation of the S&P has been on the high side while the yield is low suggesting the market could re-price. Just my 2 cents though for what that'll buy you.
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Old 05-18-2016, 06:45 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,247,595 times
Reputation: 27861
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneslip View Post
No one can answer your question with any certainty, you have to stick to your plan. At best you will receive educated guesses which is what I have as well.


There will always be reasons to be short the market but at times certain signals start flashing the caution sign such as higher than norm valuations & lower yields. Right now and has been for several years the valuation of the S&P has been on the high side while the yield is low suggesting the market could re-price. Just my 2 cents though for what that'll buy you.
It should be pretty damn obvious to anyone that the market has little upside at this time and a lot of downside. Protect your portfolio. Nobody has been yelling louder on these boards than I have about getting some (not all) of your portfolio in tickers that move inversely to the markets.
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Old 05-18-2016, 07:11 AM
 
26,191 posts, read 21,568,036 times
Reputation: 22772
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Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
It should be pretty damn obvious to anyone that the market has little upside at this time and a lot of downside. Protect your portfolio. Nobody has been yelling louder on these boards than I have about getting some (not all) of your portfolio in tickers that move inversely to the markets.
I'm sure it was also obvious late 08 early 09 that there was nothing but downside too
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Old 05-18-2016, 07:26 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,247,595 times
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Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
I'm sure it was also obvious late 08 early 09 that there was nothing but downside too
It was obvious to me that there was something wrong back in '08 and I lost NOTHING in the time period.
I didn't gain anything either as I didn't have any puts or short sales. But I'll take a flat line when most of John Q Public is losing a bundle.
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Old 05-18-2016, 07:58 AM
 
Location: SoCal
20,160 posts, read 12,750,608 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
It was obvious to me that there was something wrong back in '08 and I lost NOTHING in the time period.
I didn't gain anything either as I didn't have any puts or short sales. But I'll take a flat line when most of John Q Public is losing a bundle.
Yeah, it was obvious, starting 2006. I found an article in my garage from either Newsweek or Times stating the bull market was 4 year long. I was in CDs for our non 401k account. I think I did move most to cash in 2008 for our 401k. The market did not go down abruptly, it went down slowly. Just look at the chart. I got back in 2010. That's still early enough. No stress. No volatility. Nobody suggest in buying puts.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:53 AM
 
26,191 posts, read 21,568,036 times
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Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
Yeah, it was obvious, starting 2006. I found an article in my garage from either Newsweek or Times stating the bull market was 4 year long. I was in CDs for our non 401k account. I think I did move most to cash in 2008 for our 401k. The market did not go down abruptly, it went down slowly. Just look at the chart. I got back in 2010. That's still early enough. No stress. No volatility. Nobody suggest in buying puts.
If you got back in 2010 you were well behind the turn around. So much for the obvious signs. And you found news articles but then 2 years later and you think you moved into cash? Seems memories fade
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:54 AM
 
26,191 posts, read 21,568,036 times
Reputation: 22772
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
It was obvious to me that there was something wrong back in '08 and I lost NOTHING in the time period.
I didn't gain anything either as I didn't have any puts or short sales. But I'll take a flat line when most of John Q Public is losing a bundle.
Did you have any to lose in 08?
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:58 AM
 
Location: SoCal
20,160 posts, read 12,750,608 times
Reputation: 16993
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
If you got back in 2010 you were well behind the turn around. So much for the obvious signs. And you found news articles but then 2 years later and you think you moved into cash? Seems memories fade
No I don't remember what I did back then. I found the article recently and then I checked my vanguard account and was surprised I was invested in ladder CDs. Yes behind in the turn around but if you look at the Sp500, it was around 1500 in 2007. I think it was around 1200 in 2010.
One think I regretted was listened to my husband who was listened to Jim Cramer. I wanted to buy when the Dow was 6000 but he said Cramer said to wait until the Dow was 4000. That never came. I had lots of cash sitting on the side. I could have been rich. But with 20/20 hindsight of course.
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,247,595 times
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Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Did you have any to lose in 08?
You argue just to argue and in all honesty I haven't seen you contribute anything to these boards.
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:11 AM
 
Location: SoCal
20,160 posts, read 12,750,608 times
Reputation: 16993
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
You argue just to argue and in all honesty I haven't seen you contribute anything to these boards.
You have low expectations?
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