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The market has been correcting for a while now. How much more do you think it will go? Do you think it will drop enough to make stocks a reasonable investment again? What is your buy point?
On August 19th, the markets will open slightly down, by the end of the day the DOW will shed 823 points, this will be the start of the great crash of 2016.
The stock market will bottom out on February 24th 2017, the DOW will reach a low of 12,991
I'm saving up a lot of cash for the big day in February
It's the internet! All the posters trade frequently recall fondly getting out at the top and how they triumphantly bought at the bottom.
Kind of like the coworkers I had who went to Vegas and always shared tales of their glorious success.
I can't understand people who think you should keep your head in the sand and not pay attention to obvious trends. "You can't time the market" is a comment on day trading, not on long term investing. It was obvious in 2006 that there was going to be a recession fairly soon. You would have to have been willfully blind to miss the signs. The Fed had been dropping interest rates for years to keep a wheezing economy on life support, two unfunded wars were sucking one huge fortune out of the economy and rampant speculation in oil was sucking another huge fortune out of the economy. Yeah, when gas went over $4 a gallon, I bailed to cash. I didn't anticipate the magnitude of the banking crisis. That was just a piece of good fortune that provided the best investment opportunities since 1982.
There were plenty of stories about people who lost their homes, or who had to cash in their retirement investments at the bottom of the market because they were upside down on their homes. Remember, "Real estate prices always go up?" If you were alive 30 years earlier you knew what a crock that was.
The response to this thread was about what I was expecting; stocks are not going to be a good investment in the foreseeable future. Prices will be flat, and price to earning is too high for dividends to compensate. There may be decent returns available, but it will take real research, not just reading the quarterly reports. Buying an index fund is not going to do it for you. If the Fed decides to resume QE, it will be time to buy the market again. If the Fed raises interest rates again, the stocks will continue to decline. Cause and effect like that is so obvious the "experts" seem to miss it completely.
Yeah, when gas went over $4 a gallon, I bailed to cash. I didn't anticipate the magnitude of the banking crisis. That was just a piece of good fortune that provided the best investment opportunities since 1982.
Hey another person on the internet who wisely bailed out before the crash, and got in at the bottom. Congrats!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
There were plenty of stories about people who lost their homes, or who had to cash in their retirement investments at the bottom of the market because they were upside down on their homes.
I have no idea why someone would have to cash in their retirement investments because they were upside down on their home.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
The response to this thread was about what I was expecting; stocks are not going to be a good investment in the foreseeable future.
Curious = how have you positioned yourself for this period of poor stock returns on the horizon?
I can't understand people who think you should keep your head in the sand and not pay attention to obvious trends. "You can't time the market" is a comment on day trading, not on long term investing. It was obvious in 2006 that there was going to be a recession fairly soon. You would have to have been willfully blind to miss the signs. The Fed had been dropping interest rates for years to keep a wheezing economy on life support, two unfunded wars were sucking one huge fortune out of the economy and rampant speculation in oil was sucking another huge fortune out of the economy. Yeah, when gas went over $4 a gallon, I bailed to cash. I didn't anticipate the magnitude of the banking crisis. That was just a piece of good fortune that provided the best investment opportunities since 1982.
There were plenty of stories about people who lost their homes, or who had to cash in their retirement investments at the bottom of the market because they were upside down on their homes. Remember, "Real estate prices always go up?" If you were alive 30 years earlier you knew what a crock that was.
The response to this thread was about what I was expecting; stocks are not going to be a good investment in the foreseeable future. Prices will be flat, and price to earning is too high for dividends to compensate. There may be decent returns available, but it will take real research, not just reading the quarterly reports. Buying an index fund is not going to do it for you. If the Fed decides to resume QE, it will be time to buy the market again. If the Fed raises interest rates again, the stocks will continue And to decline. Cause and effect like that is so obvious the "experts" seem to miss it completely.
That's a good post.
And the reason that the experts miss the obvious signs is because they want to miss them. It's easier and more profitable to simply tell everyone to 'stay the course' and 'invest for the long term' than it is to put in some sell recommendations and tell people to go to cash or (gasp) buy some inversely moving products.
Let's not forget that market timers have to be accurate twice in order for timing to outperform. You can't just make an accurate call about when to take off risk, you also have to be right about when to put the risk back on. Investors who can do that consistently are as rare as a ginger skunk ape.
Let's not forget that market timers have to be accurate twice in order for timing to outperform. You can't just make an accurate call about when to take off risk, you also have to be right about when to put the risk back on. Investors who can do that consistently are as rare as a ginger skunk ape.
And that is the problem you have to be right twice and seeing as how the timers are guessing and as demonstrated here the more you guess the harder it is to be right 100% of the time
Even Warren Buffett guesses. Like when he brought IBM a few years back and it was $20 or so higher than what it trades for now (and he is still holding it). That's what some on these boards don't get. It's all a gamble - the only question is how well you are able to do the guesswork.
Even Warren Buffett guesses. Like when he brought IBM a few years back and it was $20 or so higher than what it trades for now (and he is still holding it). That's what some on these boards don't get. It's all a gamble - the only question is how well you are able to do the guesswork.
So when people say I "knew" or I "know" X was or is going to happen they didn't, they were guessing
Warren probably does a bit of homework before plunking money down on a guess. His track record suggests correct guesses more often than not. A lot of the posters in this thread are making investment decisions based on a hunch or what one of their bias-confirming fellow posters has divined. Like you said, it's always a gamble but some odds are better than others.
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