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You also called for a 20% decline in the market in October which never materialized
Don't forget this one. Which DID materialize. 02-21-2016, 06:56 PM [SIZE=5]BeerGeek40[/SIZE]
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MasterCard is at $87 roughly.
$95 is almost a sure thing unless the entire market tanks.
[RIGHT] [/RIGHT]
Don't forget this one. Which DID materialize.
02-21-2016, 06:56 PM [SIZE=5]BeerGeek40[/SIZE]
Senior Member
Edit Status
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Pennsylvania
1,046 posts, read 517,918 times
Reputation: 1414
MasterCard is at $87 roughly.
$95 is almost a sure thing unless the entire market tanks.
[RIGHT] [/RIGHT]
No you surely got that one right but that collectively supports the point what what you "know" right? I mean in reality throwing out enough guesses means you'd get some right and some wrong
It's also interesting to look at other names closely associated with your call for relative performance
Ma +10.40% since your call
V +8.44%
AXP +16.6%
SPY +7.27%
I didnt time the stock market in 2013. I felt it was very positive. Only in 2014 hat I felt the market was getting tired. But I didn't get out right away. Every time we had a high in 2015, I went slowly into cash. But I want to make sure I sold higher than I bought. I'm still far ahead in international fund like the I fund. I only remember I sold at around $26, it is now still $23-$24 time frame. But I did buy back some in Feb of this year. I think around $21-22. I only remember the price I sold and try to get back with a bit discount. Not smart but damn lucky.
No you surely got that one right but that collectively supports the point what what you "know" right? I mean in reality throwing out enough guesses means you'd get some right and some wrong
It's also interesting to look at other names closely associated with your call for relative performance
Ma +10.40% since your call
V +8.44%
AXP +16.6%
SPY +7.27%
Thanks for giving me credit.
I have been also discussing PCN on these boards which I bought for the retirement fund n December, rode it up 6% + payouts, and then sold it all a few days back....just before it started tanking.
I get some wrong and some right -- like anyone. I was way wrong in 2013....
I feel like there is a correction to at least Dow 15,000 due at some point in the near to medium term. Maybe 13,000 but I find that less likely.
I don't see anything that would cause a 60% drop like in 2008-09. The banks seem to be relatively healthy. Our big national economic problem is income/wealth inequality that causes slow growth, but that is like a festering sore, not an unexpected shock. The markets can do fine even when a lot of main street is just muddling along.
The real problem in 2007-08 was not that no one realized the market was inflated, is was that no one was quite congnizant of how far the rabbit hole went with CDOs, default swaps, etc... Smart people knew that sub-prime mortgages were bad. But what should have been a 20% correction turned out to be much worse because of the corrupt dealing going on that almost destroyed the banks.
I feel like there is a correction to at least Dow 15,000 due at some point in the near to medium term. Maybe 13,000 but I find that less likely.
I don't see anything that would cause a 60% drop like in 2008-09. The banks seem to be relatively healthy. Our big national economic problem is income/wealth inequality that causes slow growth, but that is like a festering sore, not an unexpected shock. The markets can do fine even when a lot of main street is just muddling along.
The real problem in 2007-08 was not that no one realized the market was inflated, is was that no one was quite congnizant of how far the rabbit hole went with CDOs, default swaps, etc... Smart people knew that sub-prime mortgages were bad. But what should have been a 20% correction turned out to be much worse because of the corrupt dealing going on that almost destroyed the banks.
You may be entirely right about the "correction" to 15,000 (or even lower). We just don't know. But what irritates me is the incessant drumbeat of insistence, from so many directions, that the present market is somehow "incorrect". We had October 2014; anybody remember that? Then August 2015. Then January-February 2016. These were all ~10% "corrections". How many more "corrections" do we need, with no net growth in between, to atone for our sins? How many more dips and drops and crises of the moment? It's as if long-term equity investors are collectively guilty of hubris, greed and indifference. It's as if people who actually don't live paycheck-to-paycheck need to tithe to provide succor for the poor unfortunates who in a famous recent study can't come up with $400.
2007-2008 completely blindsided me. Living in the rural Midwest, we had no housing bubble. Our real-estate prices in 2007 were at late-1990s level. We had no interest-only mortgages or teaser-rates or rampant flipping. Not having a television, I didn't know about the waitresses in Miami buying McMansions with no money down, or guys in NYC tricking other guys in NYC to trick other guys in NYC with synthetic CDOs. The market-high in 2007 felt like the long-sought return to normalcy after a grueling start to the 21st century. Far from the advent of a new era of prosperity, October 2007 felt like the culmination of a long and tortuous convalescence. Instead it was a slide and then a freefall into abject horror.
And now instead of receiving credit for enduring the past 16 years, we hear that we're chumps and idiots for retaining belief in the market. Sometimes I really wish that ominous black sedans would go driveway to driveway at 3 am, visiting the short-sellers and the like, whisking them quietly away to labor camps in Alaska. Sorry. I couldn't help myself. It's America in 2016, not Russia in 1937. But sometimes the similarities are uncanny.
One way to ensure you don't make emotional moves or attempt to time the market is to set yourself up for regular investing on a schedule. Obviously this is best for investing in funds/ETF, instead of single stocks unless you plan to hold a single stock for a very long time.
Not just 401K contributions, but contributions made outside of payroll into other investments which would be post-tax. If you "set it and forget it" so monies are taken out of your savings or checking and invested automatically, the feelings of anxiety that often accompanies it can be abated if you don't watch the market every day.
Is ignorance bliss? It is if you decide you're in this for the long haul and until you need the money, which for most people is during retirement AND you have a significant time horizon (over 10 years).
In 2008 I was not watching the market at all. I was saving money and contributing whatever I was at the time to the company 401K funds. I didn't panic because I was unaware of what was happening in my funds (ignorance was bliss). I didn't look at the statements. Ultimately I knew I needed to keep working and keep saving, so that's what I did. I was more concerned with staying employed in those years. I had a chunk 'o cash at that point, but at no time did I exit the market or change my allocation of the monies that were invested. Aside from 401K contributions, I didn't throw more cash into the market either though, which of course I wish I had done in early 2009. But what was invested stayed invested and rose back up, without my interference.
One way to ensure you don't make emotional moves or attempt to time the market is to set yourself up for regular investing on a schedule. Obviously this is best for investing in funds/ETF, instead of single stocks unless you plan to hold a single stock for a very long time.
Not just 401K contributions, but contributions made outside of payroll into other investments which would be post-tax. If you "set it and forget it" so monies are taken out of your savings or checking and invested automatically, the feelings of anxiety that often accompanies it can be abated if you don't watch the market every day.
Is ignorance bliss? It is if you decide you're in this for the long haul and until you need the money, which for most people is during retirement AND you have a significant time horizon (over 10 years).
In 2008 I was not watching the market at all. I was saving money and contributing whatever I was at the time to the company 401K funds. I didn't panic because I was unaware of what was happening in my funds (ignorance was bliss). I didn't look at the statements. Ultimately I knew I needed to keep working and keep saving, so that's what I did. I was more concerned with staying employed in those years. I had a chunk 'o cash at that point, but at no time did I exit the market or change my allocation of the monies that were invested. Aside from 401K contributions, I didn't throw more cash into the market either though, which of course I wish I had done in early 2009. But what was invested stayed invested and rose back up, without my interference.
You were lucky you were employed. That was a luxury. Recall that 800,000 jobs a month were being lost during that period.
In my case, I was just out of school and had just recently been hired so was first fired in the inevitable RIFs that occurred in a crisis. I had sunk my life's savings in mutual funds... without a job I needed the cash especially when I had a family member get sick & had to sell my shares at an almost 50% loss.
You were lucky you were employed. That was a luxury. Recall that 800,000 jobs a month were being lost during that period.
I was lucky in 2008. The layoff axe hit me in 2011 though and I spent a year looking.
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02-21-2016, 06:56 PM 
