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I have a naive but entirely serious question, aimed at everyone who moves large amounts of their portfolio based on news or hunches or whatnot (I'm not referring to high-frequency traders): how does one muster the gumption to do such a thing? I'm a buy-and-hold investor, not because I pray to a statue of John Bogle in my basement, but because in my personal credo, it's just - how shall I say? - irresponsible to do anything else. Some other stance might be wiser or more profitable. I'm not debating that. I'm not asserting that the passive approach is superior, or even good. That's another debate. Merely I ask: how can anyone, staring at their life's accumulation of assets, ever take any substantial action, other than of course nibbling at the edges (trading with play-money, annual rebalancing, trimming a cash-position in favor of equities during another dip, etc.)?
You probably will do well. My sister and brother are in this category and they did well in stocks.
I can say that currently market is quite a stable one. We have strong horizontal resistance and support line. You can track it trough the graph of SPY. Resistance line is $210 and support is nearly $180. We have a huge range of $30 where market is fluctuating. Actually I don't see any reason that can broke above range.
It's the internet! All the posters trade frequently recall fondly getting out at the top and how they triumphantly bought at the bottom.
Kind of like the coworkers I had who went to Vegas and always shared tales of their glorious success.
I 'knew' back in 2008 that something was wrong. There were huge up and down movements for months. There were hedge funds collapses back in 2007 that were the start of the collapse of the real estate bubble. Read this link:
Right now I suspect but don't 'know' we are at a market top and there's a lot of uncertainty in the political situation as well. You want to disagree with me? Fine. In a year we'll see who is right. And unlike in '08, this time we have everything documented on the boards.
It's the internet! All the posters trade frequently recall fondly getting out at the top and how they triumphantly bought at the bottom.
Kind of like the coworkers I had who went to Vegas and always shared tales of their glorious success.
In the last 10 years whenever I go gambling, the minute I won big as in $400 out of my $200 initial money I walked away. I always have my iPad with me, I can play poker there. I knew it won't last if I stay. Discipline.
I 'knew' back in 2008 that something was wrong. There were huge up and down movements for months. There were hedge funds collapses back in 2007 that were the start of the collapse of the real estate bubble.
Just like I said.... on the internet all the active traders knew and got out, or knew and got in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
Right now I suspect but don't 'know' we are at a market top and there's a lot of uncertainty in the political situation as well. You want to disagree with me? Fine. In a year we'll see who is right. And unlike in '08, this time we have everything documented on the boards.
Why would I disagree with you?
Political uncertainly during an election cycle? Brilliant analysis, I'll agree. Top of market? I have no idea, I've said over and over I have no idea what short term swings of the market will do. I think it'll be higher in 20 years.
You want documentation of market predictions? How about BeerGeek40 from Feb 2013?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
Charles.....
Get - Out - Of - The - Stock - Market
We are riding high folks, on printed money, but at some point the party is going to end. Now is the time for you to get conservative. Sure you may miss out on another year or two or 5 of stock market gains. But if and when the market crashes it won't be YOU left holding the bag. I have been in bonds for 3 years, at least 90% of holdings. Sure I dabble a little with stocks but bonds have been and will be a much better bet.
Of course 2013 turned out to be one of the best years in history for stock market gains, anyone following your advice to "get out" would have missed a great opportunity like you did if you were 90% bonds.
Just like I said.... on the internet all the active traders knew and got out, or knew and got in.
Why would I disagree with you?
Political uncertainly during an election cycle? Brilliant analysis, I'll agree. Top of market? I have no idea, I've said over and over I have no idea what short term swings of the market will do. I think it'll be higher in 20 years.
You want documentation of market predictions? How about BeerGeek40 from Feb 2013?
Of course 2013 turned out to be one of the best years in history for stock market gains, anyone following your advice to "get out" would have missed a great opportunity like you did if you were 90% bonds.
Well there's the downside to publicly post predictions over a long period of time
Just like I said.... on the internet all the active traders knew and got out, or knew and got in.
Why would I disagree with you?
Political uncertainly during an election cycle? Brilliant analysis, I'll agree. Top of market? I have no idea, I've said over and over I have no idea what short term swings of the market will do. I think it'll be higher in 20 years.
You want documentation of market predictions? How about BeerGeek40 from Feb 2013?
Of course 2013 turned out to be one of the best years in history for stock market gains, anyone following your advice to "get out" would have missed a great opportunity like you did if you were 90% bonds.
20 years yes. But wouldn't you want to buy them at cheaper in between.
Just like I said.... on the internet all the active traders knew and got out, or knew and got in.
Why would I disagree with you?
Political uncertainly during an election cycle? Brilliant analysis, I'll agree. Top of market? I have no idea, I've said over and over I have no idea what short term swings of the market will do. I think it'll be higher in 20 years.
You want documentation of market predictions? How about BeerGeek40 from Feb 2013?
Of course 2013 turned out to be one of the best years in history for stock market gains, anyone following your advice to "get out" would have missed a great opportunity like you did if you were 90% bonds.
I've made some purely lucky moves, but I can say with confidence it wasn't because I 'knew' anything. Sometimes timing works out (speaking only of luck of timing, not actually planning). Or as I like to remember, "even a broken clock is right twice a day."
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