Fort Henry Mall under new management. (Johnson City, Kingsport: neighborhood, tenants, theater)

[Rangerred]

IMO, the biggest issue in moving away from retail is that TN municipalities are so heavily dependent on sales tax revenue. The decline in retail sales and associated tax revenue forces a higher reliance on property taxes creating a toxic environment for economic development due to high tax rates. Kingsport is put in an even tougher position due to the gradual phase-out of the Hall income tax and the possible reduction of the corporate excise tax rate. The excise tax could be a huge blow due to Kingsport's reliance on Eastman and Domtar. A portion of this tax, which is collected by the state, is remitted to the community of origin.

[Page2]

Originally Posted by Rangerred

IMO, the biggest issue in moving away from retail is that TN municipalities are so heavily dependent on sales tax revenue. The decline in retail sales and associated tax revenue forces a higher reliance on property taxes creating a toxic environment for economic development due to high tax rates. Kingsport is put in an even tougher position due to the gradual phase-out of the Hall income tax and the possible reduction of the corporate excise tax rate. The excise tax could be a huge blow due to Kingsport's reliance on Eastman and Domtar. A portion of this tax, which is collected by the state, is remitted to the community of origin.

If you look at the retail trend line you can see signs of fatigue beginning. Cities - not just Kingsport - are now in the position of they have to grow their populations or slowly die. Currently the entire region - even Johnson City and Washington County - have a negative natural growth position. For every 10 births there are 13 deaths. Attracting new residents is the only form of population growth unless someone finds a way to create a lot more - and better - jobs than are currently being created. Neither the Johnson City or Kingsport-Bristol region is growing its GDP. Kingsport-Bristol has seen a decline in real GDP since 2012 and while Johnson City has seen some growth it's still below the pre-recession high. The sad fact of life is maintaining the status quo seems to be a bigger battle than growth.

[rccrain]

Pretty much most of the significant online retailers collect sales tax based on the ship to address. So that might be much of a hit to localities.

I had not heard that excise tax might be reduced. I would prefer increasing excise tax but eliminating franchise tax. I've seen a company lose $200,000 and still owe over $10,000 in franchise tax. IMO that ain't right.

Is excise tax distribution based on the situs of the taxpayer. I though it was based on something weird like property taxes.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by Page2

If you look at the retail trend line you can see signs of fatigue beginning. Cities - not just Kingsport - are now in the position of they have to grow their populations or slowly die. Currently the entire region - even Johnson City and Washington County - have a negative natural growth position. For every 10 births there are 13 deaths. Attracting new residents is the only form of population growth unless someone finds a way to create a lot more - and better - jobs than are currently being created. Neither the Johnson City or Kingsport-Bristol region is growing its GDP. Kingsport-Bristol has seen a decline in real GDP since 2012 and while Johnson City has seen some growth it's still below the pre-recession high. The sad fact of life is maintaining the status quo seems to be a bigger battle than growth.

Fortunately, JC and Washington County do seem to be attracting new residents from outside the area. That's one of, and maybe the primary, reason why it seems more vibrant.

Anecdotally, I see the stagnation every day. I was gone for three years and see the same faces in many of the same places that I did before I left.

[Rangerred]

Is excise tax distribution based on the situs of the taxpayer. I though it was based on something weird like property taxes.

It is based on the situs of bank deposits and level of property taxes. I'm unsure of the exact formula used, though.

The idea of reducing the excise tax came about due to the continuous revenue surplus being brought in by the state. Instead of reducing the sales tax or reducing/eliminating the tax on food, reducing the corporate excise tax is being floated.

[Page2]

Originally Posted by Serious Conversation

Fortunately, JC and Washington County do seem to be attracting new residents from outside the area. That's one of, and maybe the primary, reason why it seems more vibrant.

Anecdotally, I see the stagnation every day. I was gone for three years and see the same faces in many of the same places that I did before I left.

Census estimates show that during 2015 Johnson City and Kingsport were the only cities in the region to grow their populations. That's good but Kingsport's gain for the year was 63 people while Johnson City had a gain of 364. Of course those are estimates so there a margain of error to consider but it's not a huge plus/minus. And those a net numbers. If Johnson City could sustain that over the long term it's only status quo unless you're talking about a decade or so outlook. Kingsport's 2015 growth is basically a population flatline that would be able to sustain the natural increase in the cost of city services. Here's where I found the data
https://donfenley.com/2016/12/15/joh...local-economy/

[Rangerred]

Kingsport Times-News: Frank Theatres to exit mall by end of April

No surprise but now it's official, no more Frank Theaters come April. What ever happened to the bowling alley/arcade/restaurant Frank was supposed to build? Or the IMAX? Any of those would have been great for Kingsport and the region. Now Kingsport is saddled with a failing mall, no movie theater, and serious uncertainty in the retail sector. How long do Belk and JC Penny hang around? How many more stores will bolt for Bristol?

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by Rangerred

Kingsport Times-News: Frank Theatres to exit mall by end of April

No surprise but now it's official, no more Frank Theaters come April. What ever happened to the bowling alley/arcade/restaurant Frank was supposed to build? Or the IMAX? Any of those would have been great for Kingsport and the region. Now Kingsport is saddled with a failing mall, no movie theater, and serious uncertainty in the retail sector. How long do Belk and JC Penny hang around? How many more stores will bolt for Bristol?

I thought the IMAX would bring value to the mall, but I don't know why an operator would locate a nice theater in a failing mall.

Probably until the next round of mass closings or lease breaks. The JCP is in bad shape and I can see it being on the chopping block.

[jjbradleynyc]

Originally Posted by Rangerred

Kingsport Times-News: Frank Theatres to exit mall by end of April

No surprise but now it's official, no more Frank Theaters come April. What ever happened to the bowling alley/arcade/restaurant Frank was supposed to build? Or the IMAX? Any of those would have been great for Kingsport and the region. Now Kingsport is saddled with a failing mall, no movie theater, and serious uncertainty in the retail sector. How long do Belk and JC Penny hang around? How many more stores will bolt for Bristol?

Yeah, the mall unfortunately chose a sketchy theatre company to build/partner with.

As far as the mall goes, if it were this easy, they should tear down/renovate the entire thing, and partner with a legit IMAX/theater company and just make that mall basically the IMAX theater with maybe a bowling alley, a few bars and restaurants and several shops, and call it a day.

The mall as-is is on its way down and not sure it can survive in its current state. The mall concept is a faded idea that will probably not be around as we know it, or were used to it, in the next 25-50 years of retailing.

Kingsport should focus on building up their core downtown area and draw retailers/stores there. The sprawling/leapfrog type of big box stores taking up acres of beautiful land along a highway is a "make money quick--close after 20 years" sort of cycle that needs to stop.

[Jim37680]

As they say- it ain't over until it's over.

Kingsport Times-News: Frank Theatres plans to stay in the Model City

Hull seems to still be mulling what to do with the two immobile escalators in front of the theaters (one has been down since December and the other down this week). There are supposedly plans to do major reconfiguration in this area of the mall. We'll see.