[MN-Born-n-Raised]

The last 10 pages have been an entertaining read until I got some popcorn stuck in my teeth.

Why is it so hard for some people to admit that they are wrong?? "Velocity bottom".

Go to this link and plug in your town (It's from Altos Research) LAS VEGAS, NV Real Estate Market Report for March 13 2011 . In my world, the "bottom" should be viewed at as the price per square foot.





When the price per square foot goes down, then often times the median price follows. !

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

The last 10 pages have been an entertaining read until I got some popcorn stuck in my teeth.

Why is it so hard for some people to admit that they are wrong?? "Velocity bottom".

Go to this link and plug in your town (It's from Altos Research) [



When the price per square foot goes down, then often times the median price follows. !

See..

//www.city-data.com/forum/18190013-post3428.html

Median price always suffers from mix problems. Average data is noisey. CS and most analysis use a modified average.

There is no question prices have again dropped after over a year of stability. That is the actual data as is shown on the reference.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

The last 10 pages have been an entertaining read until I got some popcorn stuck in my teeth.

Why is it so hard for some people to admit that they are wrong?? "Velocity bottom".

Go to this link and plug in your town (It's from Altos Research) LAS VEGAS, NV Real Estate Market Report for March 13 2011 . In my world, the "bottom" should be viewed at as the price per square foot.

Funny stuff, eh?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by olecapt

See..

//www.city-data.com/forum/18190013-post3428.html

Median price always suffers from mix problems. Average data is noisey. CS and most analysis use a modified average.

There is no question prices have again dropped after over a year of stability. That is the actual data as is shown on the reference.

The Altos link has more or less real time data. It doesn't encompass the burbs. I've been following "Phoenix". As an aggregate, the Valley is down some but there are SEVERAL areas that are up. For sure, Phoenix proper is down. But I am not interested in buying in Phoenix so I watch the Altos graphs specifically for Surprise AZ.

So I'm really not sure what your link is pointing to that shows bouncing. But I do know that VEGAS (not the burbs) is down per the posted graphs. Those are accurate. At the end of the day, median and average prices are down in Vegas because the cost per square foot is down. Fact: as an aggregate, the bottom has not occurred unless it happened last month.

Ole: It's o.k. to be wrong. We all are wrong sometimes. Just admit it and move on. But for my entertainment value, please keep on denying the obvious!

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

The Altos link has more or less real time data. It doesn't encompass the burbs. I've been following "Phoenix". As an aggregate, the Valley is down some but there are SEVERAL areas that are up. For sure, Phoenix proper is down. But I am not interested in buying in Phoenix so I watch the Altos graphs specifically for Surprise AZ.

So I'm really not sure what your link is pointing to that shows bouncing. But I do know that VEGAS (not the burbs) is down per the posted graphs. Those are accurate. At the end of the day, median and average prices are down in Vegas because the cost per square foot is down. Fact: as an aggregate, the bottom has not occurred unless it happened last month.

Ole: It's o.k. to be wrong. We all are wrong sometimes. Just admit it and move on. But for my entertainment value, please keep on denying the obvious!

Do love you doomsters.

Your beliefs are so strong that they overcome reality...even the actual data does not phase you.

However for those looking for the real data...

But here is the REO chart that has been on my blog all along showing the actual behavior of price. I have added the overall average just for you.




The median move deals with mix rather than price. The percentage of REOs went down from the 75% level to a low close to 1/3 and has now returned to about half.

The market was quite stable for 18 months and then sank driven by REOs mostly. It appears to have again stabilized but it is too soon to tell.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Ole: It's o.k. to be wrong. We all are wrong sometimes. Just admit it and move on. But for my entertainment value, please keep on denying the obvious!

Do you remember the broadcasts of the Iraqi Information Minister during the invasion of Iraq? They'd broadcast him live to the Iraqi populace and he would rant and rave that US troops had been massacred by the Republican Guard and driven out of Iraq. All this rhetoric while in the background you could see US tanks rolling down the streets of Baghdad.

Very similar phenomena here with someone ranting and raving that he correctly called the bottom in April '09 when the median housing price was $141.7K - while ignoring that $125K median number in January '11. The hope is if you repeat it often enough, maybe people will believe you.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Do you remember the broadcasts of the Iraqi Information Minister during the invasion of Iraq? They'd broadcast him live to the Iraqi populace and he would rant and rave that US troops had been massacred by the Republican Guard and driven out of Iraq. All this rhetoric while in the background you could see US tanks rolling down the streets of Baghdad.

Very similar phenomena here with someone ranting and raving that he correctly called the bottom in April '09 when the median housing price was $141.7K - while ignoring that $125K median number in January '11. The hope is if you repeat it often enough, maybe people will believe you.

I have always suspected that you were not a native english speaker. Now we know. An Iraqi speech writer. Now it all fits. The absolute denial of reality. The ability to provide words without meaning. The inability to understand simple concepts.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Ole. I see why the other forum member accused you of presenting a straw-man argument. I'm a "doomster"?? How so?

The plot (and link) that I posted was pulled out of the raw data. At the end of the day, your plot showed that the market dropped. My link showed the same.

So it seems that the price dropped below your previous predicted "bottom". So what are you constantly arguing about?? You guessed wrong. Now just admit it and move on.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Ole. I see why the other forum member accused you of presenting a straw-man argument. I'm a "doomster"?? How so?

The plot (and link) that I posted was pulled out of the raw data. At the end of the day, your plot showed that the market dropped. My link showed the same.

So it seems that the price dropped below your previous predicted "bottom". So what are you constantly arguing about?? You guessed wrong. Now just admit it and move on.

Your plot is basically irrelevant and deals more with mix change than price. It shows a continuous drop in prices where that did not occur. It is misleading and wrong.

No I said quite clearly we had reached a bottom and we had. It held for 16 months or so. Then a new drop. I was hoping to see a sustained slow rise and it looked good for a while. But it did not hold. It looks like we may again have entered a bottom and eventually from one of these bottoms we will begin to rise. Maybe slowly...maybe with some speed when we the market decides that prices need to get back to replacement costs.

I simply point out where the data appears to be going. I believe that any sustained rise in LV pricing requires overall economic improvement that has not yet occurred. But on the other hand I think we will see little more bad news. It is in the overall scheme at the bottom. Looking back from five years out that will be clear. We are simply too close now to see it.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

No I said quite clearly we had reached a bottom and we had. It held for 16 months or so. Then a new drop.

I correctly called the bottom...but then we had a new bottom!!

There are no US troops in Baghdad! The enemy has been crushed!