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Old 03-18-2011, 09:45 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,200,574 times
Reputation: 2661

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
I correctly called the bottom...but then we had a new bottom!!

There are no US troops in Baghdad! The enemy has been crushed!


I appreciate your portrait. You are as ugly as I suspected.
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Old 03-18-2011, 10:06 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,448,277 times
Reputation: 498
The numbers clearly reflect the bottom was put in on April '09. The subsequent 12% drop in prices after that is misleading and statistically flawed!!

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Old 03-18-2011, 10:13 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,200,574 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
The numbers clearly reflect the bottom was put in on April '09. The subsequent 12% drop in prices after that is misleading and statistically flawed!!
English is obviously not a language which you have mastered.
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Old 03-18-2011, 10:22 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,448,277 times
Reputation: 498
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
English is obviously not a language which you have mastered.
Reality is not a concept you have mastered.

Vegas housing prices bottomed in April '09...do not believe the infidels!! They have been crushed under our boots!!
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Old 03-19-2011, 06:14 AM
 
91 posts, read 175,026 times
Reputation: 68
Olecapt has a vested interest in telling his side of the story, right?

Either way, the entertainment is free and I will continue reading.

As for Vegas real estate, the pickings will continue to be good for several years, as the stupid people in this town would rather play Crazy for Poker, than save up a lousy 40k (which any security guard at the mall can do in 5 years, easy) to buy a condo and live "rent" free for the rest of their lives.

Let the weekend games begin...go..........
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Old 03-19-2011, 07:08 AM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,161,033 times
Reputation: 8482
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Your plot is basically irrelevant and deals more with mix change than price. It shows a continuous drop in prices where that did not occur. It is misleading and wrong.

Yea. Altos Research data is "misleading and wrong". Didn't your plot show that the prices were dropping as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
It held for 16 months or so. Then a new drop.
People who were better at predicting the market thought the governments incentive as well as banks holding off inventory would eventually cause the market drop further. It took about a year for that to happen. Hence you didn't predict the bottom. That's how it works in the mind of every other person who is reading this. I'll prove it. Who thinks Ole's prediction was correct???? Anyone? Someone please come to his rescue.... Does anyone think Ole called the bottom correctly????

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
But it did not hold. It looks like we may again have entered a bottom and eventually from one of these bottoms we will begin to rise.
"One of these bottoms". Your killing me! Listen. I'm sure you are good at stats because you are a former engineer turned realtor. But the reality is, there is ONE bottom not multiple bottoms. The key word here is BOTTOM. Now just admit it. You called it wrong. Your pom-poms got in the way of seeing what was really happening. You thought you had a handle on the Vegas market but you overlooked shadow inventory and other key variables. Even many real experts got it wrong. You have an out. You are an ex-engineer turned part time Real Estate agent. No one expected you to see it coming.
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Old 03-19-2011, 07:12 AM
 
91 posts, read 175,026 times
Reputation: 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
Yea. Altos Research data is "misleading and wrong". Didn't your plot show that the prices were dropping as well.



People who were better at predicting the market thought the governments incentive as well as banks holding off inventory would eventually cause the market drop further. It took about a year for that to happen. Hence you didn't predict the bottom. That's how it works in the mind of every other person who is reading this. I'll prove it. Who thinks Ole's prediction was correct???? Anyone? Someone please come to his rescue.... Does anyone think Ole called the bottom correctly????



"One of these bottoms". Your killing me! Listen. I'm sure you are good at stats because you are a former engineer turned realtor. But the reality is, there is ONE bottom not multiple bottoms. The key word here is BOTTOM. Now just admit it. You called it wrong. Your pom-poms got in the way of seeing what was really happening. You thought you had a handle on the Vegas market but you overlooked shadow inventory and other key variables. Even many real experts got it wrong. You have an out. You are an ex-engineer turned part time Real Estate agent. No one expected you to see it coming.
well put.

the tax credit and now the national moratorium against home foreclosures, and now no credit extended to borderliners...

well, the bottom is yet to come, don't you think?
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Old 03-19-2011, 07:17 AM
 
Location: North Las Vegas
1,631 posts, read 3,951,480 times
Reputation: 768
Even though this article in the the local paper address's construction employment struggles, it sheds additional light on our local economy that is struggling and how it is still affecting the housing in general.

As buyer this information is helpful in understanding what is going on out here.

Construction employment continues to drop
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Old 03-19-2011, 07:38 AM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,161,033 times
Reputation: 8482
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas2005 View Post
well put.

the tax credit and now the national moratorium against home foreclosures, and now no credit extended to borderliners...

well, the bottom is yet to come, don't you think?

I am not studying the Vegas market closely so I don't know. I try to do my best to understand the AZ and MN market. In MN, there is more pain coming. No doubt about it. In AZ (the Valley), there is at least a few more months of downward pressure. Some quality areas are at $60 a sq foot in the outer burbs. Those areas are possibly at "bottom". My best guess is its close. What is interesting is the rebuild cost in some of these burbs are at $85 a square foot for new. So if Vegas is at $115 a sq foot, certainly there COULD be more room to drop.

All I can say is that there are several downward pressures that like interest rates rising, inflation (gas prices in particular) and worsening negative equity. Those factors will keep the foreclosure pipeline going for many many many months in delicate markets like Phoenix and Vegas. I will predict that nearly all of FL has a good deal more to go. there is a log jam on the inventory. Or as Ole would modify the words to claim he was right; "they have several more pending bottoms".
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Old 03-19-2011, 07:44 AM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,161,033 times
Reputation: 8482
Quote:
Originally Posted by 007 license to sell View Post
Even though this article in the the local paper address's construction employment struggles, it sheds additional light on our local economy that is struggling and how it is still affecting the housing in general.

As buyer this information is helpful in understanding what is going on out here.

Construction employment continues to drop

007. I'm sick and tired on how professional you are. You continue to paint an accurate picture and don't get into online fights that last years.

It would be fun to have a realtor brawl. Let me stoke the fire. 007, was Ole right in his prediction of the bottom??? Just kidding 007. All in fun!
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