[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Swigchow

Sometimes when there is a mob, one feels sorry for the victim.

I hear what you are saying. It was my exclusive goal to see if I could have him admit the absolute obvious (that he missed the bottom). It's crystal clear to anyone who has been following this thread.

In conclusion, he underestimated several factors that he argued were not that big of a deal. At the end of the day, he was wrong. I don't know if his goal was to give people a false sense of confidence or if he just refused to absorb signs that were obvious to others. For me, how can I trust an agent that might twist things to the point of him actually believing it? There are too many straight shooter agants out like 007. Never mind that his argumentative personality lacks professionalism. From here on out it's "buyer beware". I'll jump off the pile now.

[SportyandMisty]

Ouch.


National existing home sales declined by 9.6% in February to 4.9 million, upsetting market expectations for a 4.2% decline. The details of the report were also weak. Condo and co-op sales fell by 10.0% and single-family sales declined by 9.6% in February.

• The median home price edged down by 1.1% to $156,100 in February. On a year-over-year basis, median home prices were also down 5.2%.
• Foreclosures and short-sales accounted for 39% of total sales in February, up from 37% in January.
• Regionally, home sales were down in all four census regions, with the Midwest recording the largest decrease (-12.2%), followed by the South (-10.2%) and by the West (-8.0%).
• The supply of homes available for sale increased by 3.5% to 3.5 million. At the current sales pace, it would take 8.6 months to sell these houses, compared with 7.6 months in January.

Key Implications

• February’s decline in existing home sales ended the run of three straight months of gains. A nascent housing recovery is taking place, but it will be a bumpy road at times. What is important is the overall direction remains upward - existing home sales are up 26% from their trough in July 2010.
• Existing home sales market continues to be driven by short sales and foreclosure sales. Given the sheer stock of foreclosed homes, expect the cleaning processes of distressed sales, which sell at a discount, to continue to be a theme through the remainder of this year.
• Demand from new home buyers is being held back by still high unemployment and tight credit conditions. As job growth picks up, new homebuyer demand should increase. Until new homebuyers are more engaged in the housing market, the recovery will remain tepid.
• Declining home prices and distressed properties also have knock-on effects on homebuilders. Housing starts declined in February to their lowest level since April 2009. The decline in new housing construction will slow the pace of inventory accumulation in unsold new homes, which in turn should stem the downward pressure on home prices.

[fishordie]

Originally Posted by airics

problem with Mountains' Edge is that it got hit really really hard with the foreclosures.. Plus all the promises of development may not happen.... I believe that M.E is the riskiest part of the valley to buy in....

Yo Saxnix,

Airics just gave you a perfect example of why listening to those who appear to be professionals requires a ton more investigation. M.E. is going to be like betting on green at the roulette table. It could come through very nicely but it does not look great at this time. Chances of new development are thin and depending on how folks use their purchased foreclosures, the area could go several different directions.

Based on your response it sounds like you are hedging against the fall of the AUD and the possibility of a rise in American real estate value. Just out of curiosity have you looked at your tax position to see how out of country real estate investment expenses and incomes affect your taxable situation?? I am not familiar with Aussie tax laws so it does become important for write offs vs. income.

I am also not familiar with what interest rates are in Australia for bank C.Ds or ??. Here interest rates on savings are ridiculously low allowing for many folks to be looking into investments for a greater return. This is a huge reason we are seeing an enormous influx of investor purchased properties here in Vegas and around the states. I just read full cash purchases account for 19% of all real estate purchases. That is an amazing number.

One other thing to consider is being out of the country you will need to pay a property manager to handle your rentals so once again a bit of return on investment is reduced vs. managing the property yourself. Not a huge deal but again mandates the need for purchasing the right properties at the right prices.

Also watch the insider and government published data regarding their supposed expert opinions on the state of the economy. You would think they would be right at least 50% of the time but alas that is just not the case. At least in gambling the experts get it right most of the time. Not so for real estate.

FOD

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

The "locals" are gonna tell you I'm nuts.

Rather than take someones word for something, investigate yourself. In the case of the news article, its accurate and read into it what you want.

//www.city-data.com/forum/las-v...ndlords-3.html


The second part of this....Well, I've contended that Vegas neighborhoods tend to age very poorly. Of course HOA's will mitigate this to some extent(but then the investment may not pan out), but a high level of rentors would cause long term maintenance issues as well. I suggest your friends(or yourself) visit neighborhoods such as this:

5220 GANADO Dr, Las Vegas, NV 89103 | MLS# 1128617

That home was built 32 years ago(1979) and the neighborhood looks as though it was probably suburban utopia at the time. However, like many a lady luck in Vegas, this neighborhood has gone a while since its better days. Now the more common theme(if you do a street view) is that most of the front porches are covered in bars as well as the windows on some houses. I assure you that property crime in the area is significantly higher than a normal suburban utopia. I point this out as an example of how rapidly Vegas suburbs deteriorate. While many current nice ares will stay as such, those aren't the ones with $100K 4 bedroom homes, and a large number of rentors. If you need further examples, I can provide a few neighborhoods in NLV, and several others throughout the valley.

I further suggest that you not pay attention to home prices that occured from 2001-2008 or so. They are an abberation and are not relevant. If you want relevance, chart the prices from 1970 into the present.

Or not. I don't even know why I care.

The only significant crime with a 1/4 mile of that address in the last 60 days were two burglaries.

That is likely par or a bit better for an older urban neighborhood. Density generally drives burglarly.

Bars are often the reaction of the older folk to a changing neighborhood. Has little to do with the actual crime level.

[saxnix]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

The "locals" are gonna tell you I'm nuts.

Thanks for the heads up John.

Edit, just saw how the post actually looked. Just wanted to grab part of the post instead of re-posting the whole message. Thanks for the whole message not just you intro

[saxnix]

Originally Posted by fishordie

Yo Saxnix,
Based on your response it sounds like you are hedging against the fall of the AUD and the possibility of a rise in American real estate value. Just out of curiosity have you looked at your tax position to see how out of country real estate investment expenses and incomes affect your taxable situation?? I am not familiar with Aussie tax laws so it does become important for write offs vs. income.

Yep, these are the exact reasons I am looking to invest there. Re the tax situation, the advice I have received is telling me that due to the tax treaty between the US and Australia, as I will be paying tax in the US on any rental income I receive, I will get a tax credit here, and the best part is that if there are any deductions that I would be entitled to here, that I can't claim under the US tax system, I can still use them as deductions here. So that means any money at all that is used to service the property (interest on a loan, property taxes, property management fees, repairs and maintenance, tax preparation, legal advice etc), is all deductible back here.

Originally Posted by fishordie

I am also not familiar with what interest rates are in Australia for bank C.Ds or ??. Here interest rates on savings are ridiculously low allowing for many folks to be looking into investments for a greater return. This is a huge reason we are seeing an enormous influx of investor purchased properties here in Vegas and around the states. I just read full cash purchases account for 19% of all real estate purchases. That is an amazing number.

The official Cash rate here is 4.75%, but that realistically translates to borrowing interest rates north of 7%. Banks are very competitive at the moment with the interest they are paying on deposits, and that rate is around 6%. That might sound good, but if you are in the higher tax bracket (earning over about 100k), you have to pay close to 50% tax on that interest. So at the end of the day the money in the bank is only slightly ahead of inflation. So it is very safe in the bank if you are retired, but if you are still working and earning a decent wage, not necessarily the best option.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Bars are often the reaction of the older folk to a changing neighborhood. Has little to do with the actual crime level.

LOL ok....

Folks you just heard it here.....when buying a house, just ignore that houses in the neighborhood you are looking at have bars on the windows.

[fishordie]

You Saxnix,

Thank you for the Aussie info. Another question or two if you don't mind. (I happen to be sitting in a jury room waiting to be dismissed so I have nothing better to do..LOL).

What is your Tax situation should you sell a U.S. property for a profit?? Are you allowed to invest the same amount you sold the property for (Less misc deductible costs) in other property without having to pay taxes on the gain?? Especially interesting if you are taxed at 50%. Is this the same tax bracket on passive income or capitol gain or do you have a separate section of your tax code?? Conversely are you allowed to write off a loss you incur on a selling a U.S. property?? Will that write off be the same as your last dollar tax bracket or is there a separate section of Aussie tax law relating to passive loss or loss on sales on out of country real estate??

The reason for the passive loss question is should you purchase a property in the last quarter of the year you may have a total net loss for the year ending. You will be able to write off all the costs you noted. I do not know if you can write off at one time or amortize any capitol improvements you do to the property. None the less just curious how a passive loss works in Aus.

In order to make this pertinent to this web site I am of course referring to you purchasing property here in Las Vegas.....LOL

Just curious to learn more about Australia.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

LOL ok....

Folks you just heard it here.....when buying a house, just ignore that houses in the neighborhood you are looking at have bars on the windows.

I would also note that virtually every house in west Summerlin has an alarm system. Must be another terrible neighborhood. I can also show you neighborhods of half million dollar upward homes loaded with Rolladens. Must be rough there.

A 70s neighborhood that has not maintained itself well would llikely be unsuited to owner occupancy. Or at least the buyer should think real hard. It is generally not the crime...it is the nature of the neighborhood.

There are however perfectly servicable 60s and 70s neighborhoods. In fact the one I live in has numerous homes going back to the 60s.

[ulostitall]

Victims were abound during the bubble and they were those who were enticed by teaser rate "liar loans"...you know the no/low doc stated income loans with credit scores of 680+..........Direct Underwriting got your approval in a couple hours. Those are victims. What do you call buyers who are paying 60k- 110k for strip condos that closed during the boom at 430k plus?? Certainly not a victim. If my properties crash from these levels the sky high elevator has certainly come down to the lower levels. To offset my possible "crash" is the fact that the properties I have now in Clark county have no mortgage, clear titles and most importantly tenants. Where were all these doomsayers that post here now during the boom?? I've said this before on this board ....top and bottom calls is a fools game and like in stock trading the "herd" mentality crowd is rarely correct. I'm doing what Warren Buffet is doing and buying all I can while there is blood flowing in the streets. Buy when no one else wants to and vice versa. Good luck Vegas....now back to my cognac.