[jfkIII]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I'm still waiting for someone to agree with Ole. Question of the day: If everyone on this forum disagrees with Olecapt on this point of his supposedly accurate bottom prediction, can he still be right???

Absolutely.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The data speaks for itself Tony. Read the data.

I've read the data. We've all read the data. That's why we all know that you're blowing smoke.

You say the GLVAR peak was January 2008. The median housing price in Vegas in Jan. '08 was $160K. I've already posted three different citations of the peak being June 2006 when the median was $315K, using GLVAR data.

You'll never find a credible citation of the Vegas housing peak coming in January 2008 and you'll never find a credible citation of the Vegas housing bottom coming in April 2009. They are both figments of your very active imagination.

http://www.lasvegasrealtor.com/stats/statindex.htm

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by jfkIII

Absolutely.

[fishordie]

I for one am grateful Olecapt is still writing on this board. He continues to be the role model of my statement real estate agents do not know any more than their clients do regarding market trends.
When we first started hearing from Olecapt he actually had quite a bit of support on this thread. It appears as if Olecapt's remarks, predictions and general insanity has driven away any one who previously thought he made sense.

I for one thank Olecapt for making my points about the need for a buyer or seller to inform themselves of market conditions and not rely solely on real estate agents. Do not get me wrong,
many agents are excellent and can help the buyer or seller with documentation, information regarding comps, etc. but are no better than you or I at predicting the bottoms or tops of a market.
Olecapt is proving he is so reliant on industry data and formulas he cannot see that sometimes, even in math, formulas can be proven wrong and a new formula becomes industry standard... at least until that formula is proven wrong.

Tony Soprano, you have been great but you must realize Olecapt walks down stairs and each time he takes a step down he feels he has reached the bottom. Most stair wells have between 14 and 20 steps. At some point Olecapt will hit the bottom, I am guessing in another 8 or 9 steps, but in his mind he hits the bottom each time he takes a step down. Of course at this point Olecapt is not stepping down rather he seems to be falling down the steps. Olecapt views the world in different terms than the majority of us and that is Okay... Just as long as the old adage "Buyer Beware" is kept in mind should you hire this guy.

Anyway, this has been a very informative and entertaining thread. It looks like folks on this site have learned one heck of a lot from the good and bad answers contained in each of the posts. I feel this has been a wonderful learning opportunity for those not familiar with real estate to discover the limitations of each of the indicators and formulas used by real estate agents and others to determine market trends.

I am sure Olecapt will have a reply to this post but in truth, at this point, does anyone really care what he thinks?? I do only because, as I have noted, Olecapt is the perfect example of an industry where many but not all of their so called professionals have gotten so caught up in their own nonsense they cannot see the forest for the trees. Or in this case the bottom for the steps.

FOD

[Robustus]

Originally Posted by fishordie

I for one am grateful Olecapt is still writing on this board. He continues to be the role model of my statement real estate agents do not know any more than their clients do regarding market trends.
When we first started hearing from Olecapt he actually had quite a bit of support on this thread. It appears as if Olecapt's remarks, predictions and general insanity has driven away any one who previously thought he made sense.

I for one thank Olecapt for making my points about the need for a buyer or seller to inform themselves of market conditions and not rely solely on real estate agents. Do not get me wrong,
many agents are excellent and can help the buyer or seller with documentation, information regarding comps, etc. but are no better than you or I at predicting the bottoms or tops of a market.
Olecapt is proving he is so reliant on industry data and formulas he cannot see that sometimes, even in math, formulas can be proven wrong and a new formula becomes industry standard... at least until that formula is proven wrong.

Tony Soprano, you have been great but you must realize Olecapt walks down stairs and each time he takes a step down he feels he has reached the bottom. Most stair wells have between 14 and 20 steps. At some point Olecapt will hit the bottom, I am guessing in another 8 or 9 steps, but in his mind he hits the bottom each time he takes a step down. Of course at this point Olecapt is not stepping down rather he seems to be falling down the steps. Olecapt views the world in different terms than the majority of us and that is Okay... Just as long as the old adage "Buyer Beware" is kept in mind should you hire this guy.

Anyway, this has been a very informative and entertaining thread. It looks like folks on this site have learned one heck of a lot from the good and bad answers contained in each of the posts. I feel this has been a wonderful learning opportunity for those not familiar with real estate to discover the limitations of each of the indicators and formulas used by real estate agents and others to determine market trends.

I am sure Olecapt will have a reply to this post but in truth, at this point, does anyone really care what he thinks?? I do only because, as I have noted, Olecapt is the perfect example of an industry where many but not all of their so called professionals have gotten so caught up in their own nonsense they cannot see the forest for the trees. Or in this case the bottom for the steps.

FOD

Isn't your core point here true almost by definition? In any industry that's dominated by a reasonably liquid financial market, very few players will have good predictive power, else the market would *already* have moved. I would therefore fully expect 90%+ of real estate agents to be no better at market calls than flipping a coin, even if we assume that they have pure incentives. Same with stock brokers and sports-handicappers. This is fairly straightforward.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

FOD. I could not give you any more feedback ("spread it around"). Your step analogy was spot on.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

See A List of Housing Market Predictions for 2011

As a nation, 9 out of 10 surveyed think the "bottom" has more to go. Many "experts" think we have 7-9% price depreciation remaining. It seems many more people are strategically defaulting as the stigma to walk has been lifted. The ex-engineer turned part-time RE agent "Ole" was not quoted. Although Ole has been pontificating for years on how much he knows about the Vegas market place, he still stands by how he called it right even though Vegas dropped (and dropped).

Meanwhile, Mrs. Oelcapt is waiting for a chance to win one argument. To date, she has not convinced her hubby he was ever wrong.

[jfkIII]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

See [url="http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/housing-market-predictions-088/"]Meanwhile, Mrs. Oelcapt is waiting for a chance to win one argument. To date, she has not convinced her hubby he was ever wrong.

Which he will readily and honestly admits. When I met olecapt he told me that sometimes he can be pompous ass. I admire a person such as that who admits their own faults. All in all...he's a good person.

[fishordie]

Thank you MN

[Swigchow]

Sometimes when there is a mob, one feels sorry for the victim.