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I don't know that I believe that, although the experience that I offer is anecdotal, and locally sourced.
Is a heat pump more efficient? That's a possibility that I would entertain. Is it less expensive to operate? Anecdotal, real life, experience, says hell no; it's not even close.
Could a heat pump cost the same, if not less, to operate than her natural gas counterpart *in NYS*? Perhaps, but only because the cost of natural gas in NYS is astronomical.
Your experience was also with heat pumps that aren't as efficient if they were ones that couldn't deal with colder temperatures, right? It's the variable speed that can change shift into the most efficient operating bands (I think one analogy would be the transmission of a car where different gears are better suited for different situations). The less expensive to operate part does vary a lot though, but that's more based on, in a comparison of different sources of heat, what the going price for one source vs another. Downstate New York has higher than average for the US natural gas prices, but it also has even higher than average electricity rates. That can shift over time, but that's what I've seen the last time I checked. It really is something, and this is annoying, where you need to run the math and do the research first. But yes, heat pumps are actually a lot more efficient than natural gas heaters for LI degree of winters and even with the conversion efficiency and transmission loss (though keep in mind, natural gas pipelines can also have transmission loss), but as I stated earlier, beyond the actual physical and engineering efficiency, there's a difference in utility companies in what fees are levied, how much debt they have that need to be serviced and at what rates, their contract negotiations with employees, and the time window and prices at which they negotiate with their suppliers which changes what the actual outcome is. That is what the bottom line is for consumers, no doubt, but I think it's reasonable still to understand that heat pumps are actually more efficient at heating for the sort of winters LI gets and that they can easily operate with greater efficiency than natural gas heaters and provide good, usable heat in the kind of winters LI gets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by peconic117
It’s been more slow going than many predicted. There are even signs demand is starting to soften in China as well as the US (and please don’t mention Norway they are a tiny rich country with a population a bit bigger than Alabama, they don’t count). No way will it be majority of cars sold by 2030. One day they will be but it will be a lot further out than some people think. Another massive issue is sourcing the components needed for batteries, which is proving to be much more difficult then many first thought. There are frankly mountain of issues many of which there’s no clear answers for yet.
For recent history, most major automakers as well as multiple think tanks for the past decade (not even going back before then when predictions mostly sided on this being far, far off into the future) as well as most governments and agencies have had projections where EV adoption is far *further* into the future. It's only in the last few years where projected timelines have been much shorter and that's because EV market share has grown far faster in recent years and EV specs for the price have generally improved much faster than originally projected a decade ago.
Demand in China is accelerating, not softening and has seen massive YOY growth despite a general economic slowdown. December data overall is still being compiled, but November in China was 25% BEV and 35% plugin new vehicle market share. It's mainly Tesla which has seen demand softened and how long-lasting that is for Tesla is uncertain. The majority of cars sold projection is based on the trajectory of other markets (including, but not exclusive to Norway). Right now, the only countries that have reached majority plugin shares are Iceland, Norway, and Sweden which are pretty small combined, but China which is the single largest national car market is projected to hit majority plugin for new vehicle market share in 2025.
Your experience was also with heat pumps that aren't as efficient if they were ones that couldn't deal with colder temperatures, right? It's the variable speed that can change shift into the most efficient operating bands (I think one analogy would be the transmission of a car where different gears are better suited for different situations). The less expensive to operate part does vary a lot though, but that's more based on, in a comparison of different sources of heat, what the going price for one source vs another. Downstate New York has higher than average for the US natural gas prices, but it also has even higher than average electricity rates. That can shift over time, but that's what I've seen the last time I checked. It really is something, and this is annoying, where you need to run the math and do the research first. But yes, heat pumps are actually a lot more efficient than natural gas heaters for LI degree of winters and even with the conversion efficiency and transmission loss (though keep in mind, natural gas pipelines can also have transmission loss), but as I stated earlier, beyond the actual physical and engineering efficiency, there's a difference in utility companies in what fees are levied, how much debt they have that need to be serviced and at what rates, their contract negotiations with employees, and the time window and prices at which they negotiate with their suppliers which changes what the actual outcome is. That is what the bottom line is for consumers, no doubt, but I think it's reasonable still to understand that heat pumps are actually more efficient at heating for the sort of winters LI gets and that they can easily operate with greater efficiency than natural gas heaters and provide good, usable heat in the kind of winters LI gets.
For recent history, most major automakers as well as multiple think tanks for the past decade (not even going back before then when predictions mostly sided on this being far, far off into the future) as well as most governments and agencies have had projections where EV adoption is far *further* into the future. It's only in the last few years where projected timelines have been much shorter and that's because EV market share has grown far faster in recent years and EV specs for the price have generally improved much faster than originally projected a decade ago.
Demand in China is accelerating, not softening and has seen massive YOY growth despite a general economic slowdown. December data overall is still being compiled, but November in China was 25% BEV and 35% plugin new vehicle market share. It's mainly Tesla which has seen demand softened and how long-lasting that is for Tesla is uncertain. The majority of cars sold projection is based on the trajectory of other markets (including, but not exclusive to Norway). Right now, the only countries that have reached majority plugin shares are Iceland, Norway, and Sweden which are pretty small combined, but China which is the single largest national car market is projected to hit majority plugin for new vehicle market share in 2025.
Nope. It’s slowing overall and is expected to continue to slow in 23. It will slow here too in 2023 as will the auto industry overall. EV’s are not immune to market forces which we will see this year. In addition the “fad” of EV’s as the new “cool” thing is starting to wane after almost a decade on the market now. There is a reason teslas have the nickname the “California Camry” lol
Your experience was also with heat pumps that aren't as efficient if they were ones that couldn't deal with colder temperatures, right? It's the variable speed that can change shift into the most efficient operating bands (I think one analogy would be the transmission of a car where different gears are better suited for different situations). The less expensive to operate part does vary a lot though, but that's more based on, in a comparison of different sources of heat, what the going price for one source vs another.
(Side note: your posts are always thoughtful; your positions are always couched in a respectful tone, and that's appreciated )
The disparity between operating a heat pump in the Carolina's, versus the cost of natural gas heat in the Carolina's, is astronomical - enough such that I don't think that a variable speed unit could bridge the disparity between itself, and a gas powered unit, cost wise.
The running cost for me to heat a 1,300 square foot home in the Carolina's, via natural gas, runs me 70-75 dollars monthly.
I've read all of these post and didn't realize how controversial this was. As I mentioned before, I had a mini-split installed because the price of oil was over the top. It's been a month so far, and I am pleased. I use my oil to supplement on very cold nights below 25 degrees. Water needs to circulate at very low temps, so there is no issue with the pipes freezing. My goal is to just save on the cost of energy. Isn't that the goal of most lower income and middle class individuals? I got a lecture from someone at PSEGLI explaining that renewable energy was the future and that eventually all electricity will be fueled by solar and wind. He also went on to explain that the pricing of gas and oil heat was so high as to persuade users to change over to more green energy. Well that is just f** BS!! Why would any utility company/government/movement drag all of the lower income people who cannot afford upfront cost into a transition that no one is ready for. If I were living paycheck to paycheck, how would I afford several thousand dollars to convert? The alternative? Pay 4-6 dollars a gallon for oil. I'm grateful I was able to do it, but I am not down with the ideology. People are really suffering with the energy cost.
Nope. It’s slowing overall and is expected to continue to slow in 23. It will slow here too in 2023 as will the auto industry overall. EV’s are not immune to market forces which we will see this year. In addition the “fad” of EV’s as the new “cool” thing is starting to wane after almost a decade on the market now. There is a reason teslas have the nickname the “California Camry” lol
I see where we're differing. These links are about the overall market slowdown slowing growth, but with that, there's potentially a slowdown in new vehicle purchases overall in China while in China it's a slowing in growth of absolute numbers of plugin sales. What I had in mind was about market share growth as in a percentage of new vehicle shares. I think what is probable for China is that plugin total sales grow in total volume, but not at as much of a YOY percentage for EV volume as before and we take that as the numerator and meanwhile total volume of new vehicles of all powertrain types hold steady or contract as part of the denominator.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDL
(Side note: your posts are always thoughtful; your positions are always couched in a respectful tone, and that's appreciated )
The disparity between operating a heat pump in the Carolina's, versus the cost of natural gas heat in the Carolina's, is astronomical - enough such that I don't think that a variable speed unit could bridge the disparity between itself, and a gas powered unit, cost wise.
The running cost for me to heat a 1,300 square foot home in the Carolina's, via natural gas, runs me 70-75 dollars monthly.
I can certainly believe that as there are multiple factors for determining pricing of natural gas vs electricity in an area, and so even though heat pumps are generally much more efficient than a natural gas heater, there's always a question of whether it's so much more efficient that it works out overall in costs. I think for investments of this size and duration, it's generally prudent to do a bit of searching, researching, quoting and math.
I do think because heat pumps have been undergoing rapid improvements though and there's theoretically quite a bit more improvement to eke out of them, it's worth checking out every once in a while at times when your system needs major maintenance or you've got new construction happening. And bringing us back to where I originally entered the thread, I want to clear up misconceptions rather than be polemical and say heat pumps are always the better choice for all peoples or that natural gas furnaces are always the way to go and heat pumps never work. I wanted to clear up that there is such a thing as heat pumps that work well for cold temperatures, and that there are ones that can be installed with ducts or without ducts or with radiative heating (and cooling which is odd!) so there are multiple form factors out there that can work, and that they are in the engineering/physics sense much more efficient, and that while currently upfront costs are higher (though there are tax credits that can blunt that quite a bit) for heat pumps, this should be factored in with what the operating costs would be in comparison to other systems and that many heat pump systems are reversible so they are *also* your A/C system.
Only reason I got a heat pump, is because my cac unit died. Wasn't worth fixing, so got new cac/hp. There are many tax incentives to help offset some of the cost.
I see where we're differing. These links are about the overall market slowdown slowing growth, but with that, there's potentially a slowdown in new vehicle purchases overall in China while in China it's a slowing in growth of absolute numbers of plugin sales. What I had in mind was about market share growth as in a percentage of new vehicle shares. I think what is probable for China is that plugin total sales grow in total volume, but not at as much of a YOY percentage for EV volume as before and we take that as the numerator and meanwhile total volume of new vehicles of all powertrain types hold steady or contract as part of the denominator.
Exactly. I think signs are pointing to the overall auto industry taking a downturn, both here and overseas as a result of larger economic problems. Im just saying EV's won't be immune.
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