Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Worcester, Cambridge: real estate market, to rent, Haitian)

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Schools have reopened in most of the rest of the world without significant problems. The risk is relatively low and the reward is huge.

Where else have schools reopened, where the number of cases are still has high as this country?

[porterhouse]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

The "schools shouldn't reopen" mantra is misplaced.

and that’s putting it kindly!

[in_newengland]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

I'm of the opinion that basically nothing is more important than getting schools public school opened again. I'm happy to forgo all the other possibly risky stuff that people seem to think is more important (gyms, bars, restaurants, casinos) because it's stuff they like.

If we shut down schools for a full year or more, there are going to be a lot of kids that fall permanently behind. The "schools shouldn't reopen" mantra is misplaced. Schools have reopened in most of the rest of the world without significant problems. The risk is relatively low and the reward is huge.

I follow news in the UK where they've had a really hard time with this pandemic. Some schools opened two weeks ago and the numbers are spiking now--same numbers as back in May--and will no doubt get worse as more schools open. Teachers are getting sick and it sounds like it's going to be a mess again.

Almost everything is a tragedy for almost everyone during this time period. Not too many people are enjoying this. As a former first grade teacher, I know the little kids need to be in school more than anyone. For the very young, school is a form of socialization, getting along with others, and learning the basics. They can't really learn remotely either. Their parents usually don't have time or energy to take care of them at home.

So I'd rather have the elementary schools open and the high school kids would have to suck it up for six months or so, until the vaccine is out there. Remote learning for high school isn't ideal but these are unusual times. Kids that age are also out and about and would spread it more than elementary school kids. So I think it makes more sense for the high school kids to stay home or maybe use a hybrid method--online and also in person but in very small groups. There have been times in this world when kids couldn't go to school at all and anything is better than nothing.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Where else have schools reopened, where the number of cases are still has high as this country?

Massachusetts has about 50 new cases / day / 1MM people. New cases are geographically concentrated in a few cities.

France has about 100 daily new cases / day / 1MM people. They reopened schools (again, they also reopened in spring) starting September 1.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...e?country=~FRA
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ses.html#cases

France has about 10x as many people as Massachusetts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/w...-students.html

A study on transmission by schools: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/def...ust%202020.pdf

Looking at the rules, the school openings in Europe are less strict (not partly remote, social distance = 1m not 6 feet) and in many cases only those in high risk groups are excused. Here, parents are completely free to opt out of in-person schooling entirely.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by in_newengland

I follow news in the UK where they've had a really hard time with this pandemic. Some schools opened two weeks ago and the numbers are spiking now--same numbers as back in May--and will no doubt get worse as more schools open. Teachers are getting sick and it sounds like it's going to be a mess again.

Almost everything is a tragedy for almost everyone during this time period. Not too many people are enjoying this. As a former first grade teacher, I know the little kids need to be in school more than anyone. For the very young, school is a form of socialization, getting along with others, and learning the basics. They can't really learn remotely either. Their parents usually don't have time or energy to take care of them at home.

So I'd rather have the elementary schools open and the high school kids would have to suck it up for six months or so, until the vaccine is out there. Remote learning for high school isn't ideal but these are unusual times. Kids that age are also out and about and would spread it more than elementary school kids. So I think it makes more sense for the high school kids to stay home or maybe use a hybrid method--online and also in person but in very small groups. There have been times in this world when kids couldn't go to school at all and anything is better than nothing.

I'm with you on this. I actually suggested (although clearly not to the right people) making the high school fully-remote so that the elementary students had space to do fully in-person learning using the high-school facilities. I honestly would have preferred remote learning in high school, but I'm sure most HS kids could suffer through and learn.

[Williepaws]

Originally Posted by id77

If I'm staying home to treat my cold, how am I spreading it? Are you saying it's ok if I run around spreading a cold if I knew it wasn't Covid?

There's already enough overly anxious nervous wrecks wandering around that I can't go out even with a common cold. Coughing in public invokes almost as much fear now as hearing gunshots.

You ought to have allergies if you think a cold/cough invokes fear! Sneezing cause you cant stand the disinfectants doesnt make you very popular with the nervous wreck crowd.

[mdovell]

I just don't see this going away any time soon. This popped the academia bubble that's for sure.

Ok so this happens in March

First they said that public schools would close for a few weeks. Then it was the end of April.
https://www.wbur.org/edify/2020/03/2...il-coronavirus

Then it was the end of the year.

Then the summer hit

Now many aren't going back this fall.

WHO states a vaccine won't start until mid next year.

So consider who just entered higher ed. They went online for school starting March. They didn't have a prom or graduation. They still are going online at higher ed and more than likely for their first year. Technically speaking we could have students that spend 18 months without physical instruction person to person (March 2020- September 2021).

But here's the rub. Is academia really going to have students come back? Ask yourself this. If the students and faculty don't feel safe then they are going to HAVE to have online classes as part of every class. Look I have a number of degrees and took a few classes online myself. We're talking a handful out of a masters, bachelors and associates. Unless an academic institution truly puts their classes online they are going to lose students to those that do.

Even if a vaccine comes out next year and works that's only relative to our own country. We aren't hearing about vaccines in Latin america and africa. Unless this is shared globally (which I doubt the current administration would want) the only way they can attend class is online. Online classes don't care if they are in the country or not or have COVID or not, it's and equalizer.

It would be unethical for academia to not provide an online option has western nations develop a vaccine while the developing world waits. Now if they do that they have to also provide it to other students as well because well attending class and going to a dorm adds up for costs.

So what happens to all the "extra" of academia? Well look at what happened to gateway cities when they put all in one basket. The long and the short of it is I would bet dollars to donuts that dorms eventually become low income housing. There's demand for housing but students themselves would be lower. No one wants empty buildings all over boston. Under theory we could see empty dorms for months if not years. People complain about the price of boston housing so ok here you go.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Unless an academic institution truly puts their classes online they are going to lose students to those that do.

If anything, it's the opposite, which is why the schools are doing as much as they can to have in person instruction, or at least scheme to say they will to get the money and then back off later. Remote learning doesn't work.

I realize most students are in it for the piece of paper but no way you are dropping 30k+ for crappy remote learning.

[id77]

Originally Posted by mdovell

I just don't see this going away any time soon. This popped the academia bubble that's for sure.

So what happens to all the "extra" of academia? Well look at what happened to gateway cities when they put all in one basket. The long and the short of it is I would bet dollars to donuts that dorms eventually become low income housing. There's demand for housing but students themselves would be lower. No one wants empty buildings all over boston. Under theory we could see empty dorms for months if not years. People complain about the price of boston housing so ok here you go.

I’ll take that bet. Universities will be fully in-person as soon as it’s practical again to do so.

Even if it were allowed, it’s not nearly enough to significantly lower the cost of housing in inner Boston. That space would get sold off to developers who will never throw money away converting it into lower cost housing beyond what the city forces or subsidizes them to. If they did try, you can rest assured that everyone who spent the cash to get in to the inner neighborhoods aren’t about to let their home values plummet and would fight it.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by id77

I’ll take that bet. Universities will be fully in-person as soon as it’s practical again to do so.

Even if it were allowed, it’s not nearly enough to significantly lower the cost of housing in inner Boston. That space would get sold off to developers who will never throw money away converting it into lower cost housing beyond what the city forces or subsidizes them to. If they did try, you can rest assured that everyone who spent the cash to get in to the inner neighborhoods aren’t about to let their home values plummet and would fight it.

That's what they said in every gateway city across New England.

Fight what. 40B has been the law for generations. The property owners can't get revenue without tenants. Some signed leases and they are on the hook for them even if they don't attend class. That's why some are already subletting their units.

History has shown this to be true time and time again. Reliance on a given industry that falls leads to higher unemployment and then lower rents and property values and who then moves in. How many more announcements of the closing of bars, stores and restaurants will it take to convince you? Regardless of who wins the white house the immigration policy isn't going to really change until the developing world gets the vaccine.

If academia doesn't allow online education that means those in those countries are stuck back home and cannot attend even online.That's really bad PR. Heck Mbas have moved mostly online.

Crappy remote learning? Ivy league has been promoting it for decades. MIT courseware was one of the first.

Also keep in mind many communities don't want students back if they spread it. There are many areas that can't deal with covid clogging the ERs and ICUs.

Remember since late July buildings could be half occupied in Boston but it's only 5%. If companies don't want you break why should academia?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/...e-they-return/