2021 Real Estate Observations (Boston, Plymouth, Randolph: rating, commuter, affluent)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by massnative71

I think that's more true in the C-D world that in real life. Plenty are buying in the lowly "average" towns as well, as is evidenced by their equally ridiculous asking prices.

Do the math. There are more homes in the lowly “average” places than in the blue chip suburbs and desirable parts of the city. This message board has a ton of confirmation bias from affluent people. The median household income in Massachusetts is ~$81k. 61.8% of residences are owner occupied.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Do the math. There are more homes in the lowly “average” places than in the blue chip suburbs and desirable parts of the city. This message board has a ton of confirmation bias from affluent people. The median household income in Massachusetts is ~$81k. 61.8% of residences are owner occupied.

I don't know what this has to do with anything really. It doesnt matter if there are more homes in the 'lowly' places...no one wants them.

[masssachoicetts]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I don't know what this has to do with anything really. It doesnt matter if there are more homes in the 'lowly' places...no one wants them.

but they are flying off the market just as fast.

[msRB311]

ok then I guess that's a good thing. I don't know what to say other than inventory is low everywhere and it seems like people have money to spend.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Do the math. There are more homes in the lowly “average” places than in the blue chip suburbs and desirable parts of the city. This message board has a ton of confirmation bias from affluent people. The median household income in Massachusetts is ~$81k. 61.8% of residences are owner occupied.

While I agree, it's not simply the 'blue chips' which have serious buying pressure. I had family sell two properties in West Bridgewater this past year, both of which had serious flaws relating to deferred maintenance (i.e., 100+ year old working class crap shacks), and both sold for well over ask with 25-40% down. Multiple offers. I've heard similar inputs from an experienced realtor/re investor listing in average to below average districts like Worcester, Auburn, Millbury, etc. He said if the properties have any overt value, such as desirable neighborhood or curb appeal/condition, the properties draw highly qualified capital-heavy buyers. FHA lending need not waste their time.

I think more realistically the buying pressure doesn't ease until you target below average properties in below average districts, but this is all speculative.

Unfortunately this board only has one consistent and seemingly transparent RE agent, but he isn't dabbling in these types of markets so all we have are anecdotes ... hardly representative of reality.

[id77]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Middleborough, Bellingham, Brockton, Fall River, New Bedford, Taunton, Plymouth, Weymouth, Lynn, Peabody, Haverhill, Methuen, Lowell, Worcester, Fitchburg, Springfield, Chicopee........


I just get the sense that people are forgetting a HUGE swath of the state. And does this differentiate first time buyers? It would be interesting to hear info from an area bank or something as to where all the first time buyers are going, and how much they are actually putting down.

I think even those areas are getting overflow from people priced out of the more expensive towns since inventory was so low.

Remember, it doesn't matter if everyone or even most actual bidders are 20%+ down payment or cash buyers. All that matters is that there's at least one bidder with that to win the war since each house can only have one accepted offer. So, it doesn't really matter if a house in Lowell or Worcester had 19 offers from people with 3-5% down if the winning bid went to the person with 20% down and no contingencies since the buyers with 20% down are the ones getting the homes.

[masssachoicetts]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

While I agree, it's not simply the 'blue chips' which have serious buying pressure. I had family sell two properties in West Bridgewater this past year, both of which had serious flaws relating to deferred maintenance (i.e., 100+ year old working class crap shacks), and both sold for well over ask and at least 20% down. Multiple offers.

I think more realistically the buying pressure doesn't ease until you target the below average districts, though the buying pressure in the 'average' districts is likely not sustainable.

Yeah, its everywhere. Randolph and Holbrook.. both below-average towns on a Massachusetts standard have some of the fastest sales in the state. A 400k home in South Randolph (3 bed, 1.5 bath, 1600sqft, built in 66, looks like it hasnt been touched since 1996) just sold for $525k. A home that sold for 380k in Randolph in 2019, sold for 490k in 2021 after being listed for 430k

Using Randolph as an example as im most familiar with it. It looks like the biggest crunch and most competitive markets fall between 400-600k.

[mdovell]

Prices are going up even in cheap areas. Even in western mass if you think you can find that much under 150k that's getting harder to find, 200K now seems to be the norm. I've started to see homes that openly say they will NOT pass FHA so forget about putting down 3%. My house has a few inspection issues that were corrected but I doubt it would pass FHA so yes even in lower markets you might still have to put down 20%.

https://www.trulia.com/p/ma/springfi...51--1144906682
Bought for 72K. Tried to sell at 55K in 2016 and now it's 165K because of how the market is.

42K to 110K to 165K in 13 years
https://www.trulia.com/p/ma/springfi...05--2000280990

30 months it took to go from 140K to 200K
https://www.trulia.com/p/ma/springfi...08--2000293439

25% increase in two years
https://www.trulia.com/p/ma/springfi...18--2000310293

20% increase in eight months
https://www.trulia.com/p/ma/springfi...51--2000323996

Obviously these prices aren't as high as the 495 area let alone boston. But they are going up significantly. Eventually people get priced out of markets. When we talk about buying and selling we should also see WHO or WHAT is buying and selling. An individual putting 20% down might not be that easy. But out west say if it's two people of FHA at 3% much more likely.

I saw a few fixer uppers but I declined (which isn't to say mine doesn't need work, it does) but to live with a rent increase, pay for a mortgage and pay for repairs for a house I can't live in yet is just too much. The more you know about maintaining a building the better.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

Yeah, its everywhere. Randolph and Holbrook.. both below-average towns on a Massachusetts standard have some of the fastest sales in the state. A 400k home in South Randolph (3 bed, 1.5 bath, 1600sqft, built in 66, looks like it hasnt been touched since 1996) just sold for $525k. A home that sold for 380k in Randolph in 2019, sold for 490k in 2021 after being listed for 430k

Using Randolph as an example as im most familiar with it. It looks like the biggest crunch and most competitive markets fall between 400-600k.

I have a grandmother that lived in Holbrook. It's a bit of a sad town but it's not really the leaderships fault, it was dealt a bad set of cards. Very little in terms of tax base for starters. Randolph I'm pretty aware with. I'm not saying they are affluent but if you are a minority and want something more suburban that would tend to be it. Credit ratings went up so prices went up. That and proximity to Boston and it gets to be a perfect storm.

People can buy houses much faster than making them and until we have much more in the way of new units going up prices will continue to go up.

At this point what's the largest private housing development planned in Mass and how many units is it?

[msRB311]

just happened to notice this house in milton and I can't believe it sold for almost a million:

https://www.redfin.com/MA/MILTON/MAT...51bWJlcj0xMQ==

This was always a pretty solid middle class neighborhood. house needs many updates. Just wow.