Is 700k the new 300k? (Boston, Arlington: short sale, 2014, foreclosures)

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

You’d need to see a complete reversal in supply/demand dynamics. What would cause people to sell and move en masse? Not saying it can’t happen, but it seems unlikely.

A recession causing them to lose their jobs and they get foreclosed on a mortgage they are way over their head on?

[matrix5k]

Don't forget inflation. When was the last time a home in the Boston suburbs was 300k, 2010?

300k in 2010 is 402k today.

[simplexsimon]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

A recession causing them to lose their jobs and they get foreclosed on a mortgage they are way over their head on?

Sure of course. I didn't say it couldn't happen. Do you see a good chance of that happening at a large scale in tech, healthcare, and education? OP is talking about a near 50% cut in home values for starter homes.

[msRB311]

I could see it happening in some of the smaller tech companies that haven’t been around for long.

I still don’t think the Boston area will ever see prices below 600k. It seems like it’s become the new normal and people are adjusting and making it work if they really want to live here. Many prices have gone up due to inflation, I don’t see why those would go down either.

I’m hoping hotel costs go down since those have really spiked too….but since people just keep paying these prices why would they go down ? Kind of sucks.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

Sure of course. I didn't say it couldn't happen. Do you see a good chance of that happening at a large scale in tech, healthcare, and education?

Maybe not large scale, but enough layoffs to scare people into willingly going back to the office. Then it becomes a question as to whether these people really are going to want to live so far away from work.

OP is talking about a near 50% cut in home values for starter homes.

As for starter homes, there's demand and then there's can get a mortgage. With all the cheap money out there, a 120k HHI can get a 600k mortgage, even now. Will that last? I dunno.

[Beachcomber4]

Yup.

[BostonMike7]

A house in my neighborhood was recently sold (within 6 months) for $580K after a bidding war. Dated interior with some issues and needed paint/trim throughout.

After closing nobody moved in and we were wondering why. A few vehicles would show up now and then and look around. About a month ago it was torn down completely (foundation as well) and a 3500+ SF monster is currently being built in it's place.

This market is crazy if $580K is a teardown.

[matrix5k]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

This market is crazy if $580K is a teardown.

A half acre lot sold for 650k in Burlington.

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Burlington...S-iumhEw1KBsrg

I think it's just a result of overpopulation. There's no more land to build and only so many houses out there. Old people pass on their homes to their children, so new homeowners stand no chance.

Many people became millionaires from the crazy bull market of 2009-2021. Stocks, crypto, real estate etc all went 2x-100x. If they bought a house for 300k in 2010 then they could have sold it for 600k last year and upgraded to a 1.2mil new construction. Your next door neighbor could be a multimillionaire from buying Amazon or Tesla stock ten years ago and you wouldn't know. If someone put $1,000 into Bitcoin in 2013 they would have 8 figures now.

[msRB311]

Yes this area is most definitely over populated.

[G-fused]

No, there is zero chance that prices will go down to the 300k levels in and around Boston. The best people can hope for is a slow down in the increase in prices. A reversal is out of the question. I mean has that ever happened in Boston where prices went down? Maybe they stoped going up so sharply but have never really went down.