2022 Real Estate Observations (tenants, per square foot, appraisers)

[MtPleasantDream]

Originally Posted by MikePRU

10% can be a massive amount of error when it comes to housing. On a $1M home that's $100K.

Again, they're garbage and not worth the paper their printed on.

If the 10% is consistent, then it is accurate.
Both Redfin and Zillow let you know which properties are "hot" too. I guess it is based on clicks and saves.

[simplexsimon]

Originally Posted by LeavingMA

Any gains over the last 2 years will be lost soon. It was not a real market, just based on low interest rates and speculation. The covid gains will be lost and home prices will start being closer to 2017/2018.

Sheer lack of inventory will prevent this from happening unless you're talking about double digit unemployment as well.

[matrix5k]

Originally Posted by MtPleasantDream

At least in Boston area, Redfin and Zillow estimated prices are very useful.
In the past two years, for hot properties, they were usually 10% lower than the sold price, otherwise they were usually just a little lower than the sold price. (I purchased a house last year)

Some properties have unique features, and the two estimated prices can differ quite a lot, but that is another story.

I agree. Selling prices seem to be around the Zestimate or higher.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

Sheer lack of inventory will prevent this from happening unless you're talking about double digit unemployment as well.

I disagree. People are locked into historically low interest rates so they’ll be reluctant to sell but people change jobs all the time and that can create an impossible commute in metro Boston. Plus the three D’s. Death, divorce, and debt that always force asset sales. There’s some hysteresis in the pricing but if mortgages are 7%+, it’s going to be tough to find buyers in the working class towns without a price reduction.

[mama_im_coming_home]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I disagree. People are locked into historically low interest rates so they’ll be reluctant to sell but people change jobs all the time and that can create an impossible commute in metro Boston. Plus the three D’s. Death, divorce, and debt that always force asset sales. There’s some hysteresis in the pricing but if mortgages are 7%+, it’s going to be tough to find buyers in the working class towns without a price reduction.

Not to mention that new construction (which is usually at high price points) is usually purchased by non-first time home buyers. That means when a local person buys a new construction, they leave behind a home that they will put on sale (reminds me of electron/hole pairs when I studied pn junctions - I wonder if home sales could be modeled by a diffusion process?).

[matrix5k]

Originally Posted by mama_im_coming_home

Not to mention that new construction (which is usually at high price points) is usually purchased by non-first time home buyers. That means when a local person buys a new construction, they leave behind a home that they will put on sale (reminds me of electron/hole pairs when I studied pn junctions - I wonder if home sales could be modeled by a diffusion process?).

I know of quite a few families who bought new constructions that are not from the area. Physicians, multi generational families etc. There were no newly listed homes here when they moved in.

[simplexsimon]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I disagree. People are locked into historically low interest rates so they’ll be reluctant to sell but people change jobs all the time and that can create an impossible commute in metro Boston. Plus the three D’s. Death, divorce, and debt that always force asset sales. There’s some hysteresis in the pricing but if mortgages are 7%+, it’s going to be tough to find buyers in the working class towns without a price reduction.

The person I was quoting was saying prices will be knocked back to 2017/2018 levels, and was making a broad comment about prices in general, not about specific areas like working class towns.

I wasn't even thinking about people's unwillingness to sell due to being locked into a low rate...arguably that could balance out the reduced demand from higher rates.

And the 3 D's you mention are not significantly different now than they have been, are they?

[msRB311]

As far as the 3 D's go I think part of the housing 'problem' is that people aren't dying off the way they once did. People are living longer, there's way less down sizing because there's not much to downsize to. In my neighborhood there are several old ladies living alone in 4 bed, 2.5 bath homes that a family would love but grandma doesn't see the point of moving.

[simplexsimon]

Originally Posted by msRB311

As far as the 3 D's go I think part of the housing 'problem' is that people aren't dying off the way they once did. People are living longer, there's way less down sizing because there's not much to downsize to. In my neighborhood there are several old ladies living alone in 4 bed, 2.5 bath homes that a family would love but grandma doesn't see the point of moving.

This is true. I'm surrounded on three sides (left, right, across the street) by original owners of their homes...two widows and one couple. All are almost 90 years old. One widow is still very active and mows her own lawn. The other two houses...a fire truck and EMT shows up about once every other month.

[msRB311]

I remember when elderly people used to go to live with family members but that seems to happen less these days as well.