Missouri stays deep red! (St. Louis, Republic: employment, earthquake, living in)

[prospectheightsresident]

Originally Posted by TRex2

From here, watching all the money being thrown at trying to keep "clean" Amendment intact, I knew there was something dirty about it. No one throws that kind of money at keeping a truly fair and "nonpartisan" system in place, as opposed to a bipartisan system, unless they have found out how to manipulate it, so that it wasn't non partisan at all.

(Of course, for years now, "nonpartisan" has been code words for controlled by the Left.")

Yep. In Utah, they created the "United Utah Party" supposedly as an alternative to Republicans and Democrats, but the real goal was diminishing GOP power as Utah isn't competitive either.

This past cycle, the United Utah Party nominee for the 4th Congressional District in the state actually withdrew and endorsed the Democrat candidate

https://www.fox13now.com/news/electi...dorses-mcadams

Again, I'd have no problem with things like Clean Missouri and efforts to form third parties like United Utah if they were actually about bringing about fairness in elections. Instead, they are veiled efforts to reduce Republican power.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Bluefox

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts about neighboring Kansas - both JoCo and Riley County went blue this cycle, first time since 1916 and before 1888, respectively. Considering JoCo is Kansas’ most populated county and by far the major growth area, it makes me think Kansas is now in “purple state” territory or may be by next cycle.

Also interesting to note that Platte County, the high growth suburban county to the north of KC, very nearly went blue.

I don't think Kansas will be trending purple anytime in the next 1-2 election cycles, based on the fact that there is still a sizable percentage of voters that don't reside in the Topeka-KC corridor, and the fact that Wichita is not trending more Democratic. Most of the counties that are trending more Democratic this election cycle as well as the prior election have much greater educational attainment levels in addition to above average median household incomes (for suburban counties). Riley County does not surprise me that much, it did take a long time to flip. Johnson County also does not surprise me one bit either, a wealthier suburban county with a well above average median household income, a prime example of a county that Democratic candidates are doing much better overall in the modern political climate.

[lovekcmo]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

I don't think Kansas will be trending purple anytime in the next 1-2 election cycles, based on the fact that there is still a sizable percentage of voters that don't reside in the Topeka-KC corridor, and the fact that Wichita is not trending more Democratic. Most of the counties that are trending more Democratic this election cycle as well as the prior election have much greater educational attainment levels in addition to above average median household incomes (for suburban counties). Riley County does not surprise me that much, it did take a long time to flip. Johnson County also does not surprise me one bit either, a wealthier suburban county with a well above average median household income, a prime example of a county that Democratic candidates are doing much better overall in the modern political climate.

Right about Johnson County as the Democrat Party is the party of the wealthy.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by lovekcmo

Right about Johnson County as the Democrat Party is the party of the wealthy.

Not really, Republicans couldn't win nearly any metropolitan county of significant size This election with few exceptions. The rural areas that had the greatest Republican margins also generally have the fastest population declines, so the numerical vote count in those areas is less of a significant component of the total vote. This is will become the case in future election cycles in states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina that have 12% or less of the total population that reside in completely rural counties.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident

Clean Missouri would have led to gerrymandering, too, with the outcome of making just about every district "competitive" even though Missouri isn't a competitive state. Thus, in order to achieve this, some weird contortions would have had to been used.

It was a deceptive amendment from what I'm reading, so I'm glad it got overturned.

Even if it went into effect I think the current 6-3 Supreme Court would have overturned it.

Outside of KC, Stl, and Boone County Missouri is a conservative, Republican state. Places like Jefferson County used to lean democrat if it was a moderate running. Democrats became too liberal and now those people vote Republican last 3 election cycles.

basically what happened in Jefferson County is similar to Kentucky, Kentucky blue collar workers and eventually they got tired of democrats and voted Republican. Although recently proved KY can still elect a Democrat governor.

Missouri is so Republican now I don't even think a more moderate one like Chris Koster could win it anymore.

Koster was the closest shot. Pro gun. Even with his name he still lost by more than 5 points.

Now next election if a good conservative runs I would expect Biden to lose by about 19 points like Hillary did if he or possibly Kamala turn into liberal disaster or sign some kind of anti gun bill.

Only reason why Obama did well in a lot of Red states in 2008 was the economy was in total shambles and many looking for handouts. That corrected itself in 2012.Plus 2008 had fraud. IMO real numbers Obama probably lost Missouri by about 4 points in 2008. Same with Indiana without fraud he would have lost that state as well.

Clinton also would have lost Missouri both elections if it wasn't for Ross Perot.

IF you take the Ross Perot factor out Clinton would have lost Missouri both elections. So in reality without Perot no Democrat would have won Missouri since 1976! That's a pretty long stretch of voting Republican for president.

Can you imagine if St. Louis City was annexed to IL? Missouri would be so deep Republican.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Incorrect, this election has magnified the trend of high population states with large metro areas becoming more Democratic over time with only a few states that are exceptions to this. North Carolina and Georgia are certainly trending more Democratic with time, and they are much faster growing states that have metro areas with high levels of educational attainment. Again, this goes back to dynamic states compared to static states, the trend should be very obvious.

Also have to factor in geography.

Reason why Republicans dominate in MO so much is you only have two big metro areas KC and St.

The rest of the state is very rural. I don't consider Springfield and Columbia to be major cites. With Columbia it's the college nearby that causes it to vote democrat but I don't consider that a major city and doesn't take up a big chunk of votes anyway that entire area.

And the Stl metro area you only have St. Louis City/County. Even the counties around it are becoming deep red now.

Texas has huge major cities spread out all over the state. Dallas, Houston, Austin, El Paso, San Antonio so their state's legislators are more balanced out versus Missouri's super majority Republicans since most of Missouri is deeply Republican outside the two big cities.

If you look at the presidiental election maps with counties not many states can compared to Missouri.

[Bluefox]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Also have to factor in geography.

Reason why Republicans dominate in MO so much is you only have two big metro areas KC and St.

The rest of the state is very rural. I don't consider Springfield and Columbia to be major cites. With Columbia it's the college nearby that causes it to vote democrat but I don't consider that a major city and doesn't take up a big chunk of votes anyway that entire area.

And the Stl metro area you only have St. Louis City/County. Even the counties around it are becoming deep red now.

Texas has huge major cities spread out all over the state. Dallas, Houston, Austin, El Paso, San Antonio so their state's legislators are more balanced out versus Missouri's super majority Republicans since most of Missouri is deeply Republican outside the two big cities.

If you look at the presidiental election maps with counties not many states can compared to Missouri.

I guess you haven’t looked at Oklahoma. I don’t think a single county went blue.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Not really, Republicans couldn't win nearly any metropolitan county of significant size This election with few exceptions. The rural areas that had the greatest Republican margins also generally have the fastest population declines, so the numerical vote count in those areas is less of a significant component of the total vote. This is will become the case in future election cycles in states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina that have 12% or less of the total population that reside in completely rural counties.

I don't see a big decline in rural population in southern areas of MO. Around Branson, Christian County it's not declining yet Republicans are very popular there.

[prospectheightsresident]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Even if it went into effect I think the current 6-3 Supreme Court would have overturned it.

Outside of KC, Stl, and Boone County Missouri is a conservative, Republican state. Places like Jefferson County used to lean democrat if it was a moderate running. Democrats became too liberal and now those people vote Republican last 3 election cycles.

basically what happened in Jefferson County is similar to Kentucky, Kentucky blue collar workers and eventually they got tired of democrats and voted Republican. Although recently proved KY can still elect a Democrat governor.

Missouri is so Republican now I don't even think a more moderate one like Chris Koster could win it anymore.

Koster was the closest shot. Pro gun. Even with his name he still lost by more than 5 points.

Now next election if a good conservative runs I would expect Biden to lose by about 19 points like Hillary did if he or possibly Kamala turn into liberal disaster or sign some kind of anti gun bill.

Only reason why Obama did well in a lot of Red states in 2008 was the economy was in total shambles and many looking for handouts. That corrected itself in 2012.Plus 2008 had fraud. IMO real numbers Obama probably lost Missouri by about 4 points in 2008. Same with Indiana without fraud he would have lost that state as well.

Clinton also would have lost Missouri both elections if it wasn't for Ross Perot.

IF you take the Ross Perot factor out Clinton would have lost Missouri both elections. So in reality without Perot no Democrat would have won Missouri since 1976! That's a pretty long stretch of voting Republican for president.

Can you imagine if St. Louis City was annexed to IL? Missouri would be so deep Republican.

I would hope that the Supreme Court would have invalidated Clean Missouri if it wasn't overturned by the voters, but I'm not sure. The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 (with Kennedy siding with the liberals) in the not so distant past that "legislature" as mentioned in the Constitution is a broad term that refers to the legislative process, which can emcompass the initiative process. While there are almost certainly enough votes to rule in the opposite way on that issue today, the problem is I'm not sure that the Court would try to overturn a precedent so close to when it was issued (this case was only decided back in 2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizon...ing_Commission).

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Only reason why Obama did well in a lot of Red states in 2008 was the economy was in total shambles and many looking for handouts. That corrected itself in 2012.Plus 2008 had fraud. IMO real numbers Obama probably lost Missouri by about 4 points in 2008. Same with Indiana without fraud he would have lost that state as well.

Stop with the voter fraud nonsense, it's completely false and you know it- much less from all the way back in 2008.