Richest New Yorkers Will Devastate City If They Leave With $133 Billion (Rochester: transplants, condo)
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I think even you realize that much of what you expressed is speculation. Even the article was making what-if scenarios more so than stating concrete, real scenarios. We still don’t know the full impact on labor, who’ll leave and who’ll stay. What does alarming look like ? Is it more crime than in other cities ? How do you measure it?
What we know today is how other crises played out in the past - the city always rebounded, unlike cities like Detroit. And today nyc arguably has a more diverse economy, a tech sector comes to mind. Who is to say that a huge chunk of taxpayers will up and go ( and won’t be replaced)? NYC offers something very unique - diverse cultures, walkability, bike paths, arts scene, a lot of different employment opportunities etc etc. It’s a global hub as much as it is a city of lots of different neighborhoods.
This isn’t to say the city won’t be broke, it already is. People’s taxes is just one source of funds for the city. Like I said, they need to jump start the economy again. The stimulus would help for sure, but city needs to seriously streamline and cut its operations to avoid moral hazard (though this won’t happen).
It's not about the money or the crime, or rather it's not just about the money or the crime. I'm having a hard time articulating what's different though. It's a lot of things at once, really. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the thing that really makes me question whether the city will rebound is what's happening with the schools. I wonder what will happen if more and more families leave. I'm sure their place will quickly be taken, so there maybe won't be a big economic impact, but something about this picture just seems off. I saw a statistic yesterday that this fall, NYC's schools lost 31,000 students out of 1.1 million - about 3% in a few months. Families are, naturally, slower to pull up roots than single kids who rent a room. So it's taking them longer to leave and we haven't seen the full impact yet. Some of these people haven't even left the city yet, they've only left the school system. And the other repercussions... if the city keeps putting kids last, years from now, will the girl who would have become the next RBG be just another dropout? Will the kid who would have become the next Lucy Liu be cleaning houses? Will the boy who would have grown up to be another Larry King be a computer game addict in his mom's basement? Will we have to beg doctors and engineers to come from abroad because we're don't have enough of our own? Just. So. Much. Wasted. Possibility.
The ripple effect of what the kids are dealing with now will surely turn into a massive tsunami that'll further widen the wealth gap years down the line. The dumbing down of society continues. Future democratic voters for sure.
If you guys can accurately predict the future of NYC, you guys should have been telling us about Covid from last June
Covid or not, you didn't need a crystal ball to know Deblasio would ruin NYC. He was one of the prime reasons I sold my condo in 2015 after he was elected.
Covid or not, you didn't need a crystal ball to know Deblasio would ruin NYC. He was one of the prime reasons I sold my condo in 2015 after he was elected.
Didn't you live like a block away from some pretty rough projects? Wondering why you didn't buy in LIC instead.
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"The man who sleeps on the floor, can never fall out of bed." -Martin Lawrence
Didn't you live like a block away from some pretty rough projects? Wondering why you didn't buy in LIC instead.
You are correct. My condo was a stones throw away from the Farragut projects.
I personally never had an issue with it, and I always felt safe when Bloomberg was Mayor. But when soft on crime liberals get elected, my kids safety come first. I didn't have any kids when I first moved to Dumbo in 2006.
I also never considered LIC, because when I was hunting for condos in 2006, LIC was still underdeveloped and not considered "cool". Its Queens, and Queens was not in back then. DUMBO was "yuppie ready". I was thinking of re-sale value when I picked DUMBO and I made a massive profit when I sold.
You are correct. My condo was a stones throw away from the Farragut projects.
I personally never had an issue with it, and I always felt safe when Bloomberg was Mayor. But when soft on crime liberals get elected, my kids safety come first. I didn't have any kids when I first moved to Dumbo in 2006.
I also never considered LIC, because when I was hunting for condos in 2006, LIC was still underdeveloped and not considered "cool". Its Queens, and Queens was not in back then. DUMBO was "yuppie ready". I was thinking of re-sale value when I picked DUMBO and I made a massive profit when I sold.
I guess. If you were concerned about re-sale value, I guess you weren't thinking of permanently staying to begin with. But this perception of safety is really fascinating. No matter who's mayor, high crime neighborhoods pretty much maintain their status quo. If Giuliani was doing such a good job on crime, why didn't you buy in Bed-Stuy, Brownsville, or ENY (I'm only naming Brooklyn neighborhoods since you were living in DUMBO)? Because they were still bad neighborhoods, correct?
During Giuliani's tenure, I didn't feel any safer. For one point, I honestly think during Giuliani and Bloomberg, visual gang presence on the streets was way more prominent than it is now. I remember being a freshman in college ('99-'00) and choosing not to buy cigarettes before I got onto the train to go to school because of a bunch of Bloods standing outside of the store. Speaking for myself, I can't remember the last time I've seen gang members in show like that.
I think my neighborhood was worse back when I first moved there 11 years ago compared to now. When we first bought the co-op, gunshots were routine on the weekends. One Sunday morning as I'm making breakfast, detectives even knocked on my door to ask if I heard or saw anything related to a shooting that happened the night before. That was during Bloomberg.
My point is it's all smoke and mirrors. People's perceptions are easily altered. What matters most is one's comfort level, but this can be easily manipulated with words and pictures.
Did you personally feel any effects of a crime increase since deBlasio took office? Is it because of what you read or watch on TV? Did you suddenly not start feeling safe in DUMBO?
__________________
"The man who sleeps on the floor, can never fall out of bed." -Martin Lawrence
I guess. If you were concerned about re-sale value, I guess you weren't thinking of permanently staying to begin with. But this perception of safety is really fascinating. No matter who's mayor, high crime neighborhoods pretty much maintain their status quo. If Giuliani was doing such a good job on crime, why didn't you buy in Bed-Stuy, Brownsville, or ENY (I'm only naming Brooklyn neighborhoods since you were living in DUMBO)? Because they were still bad neighborhoods, correct?
During Giuliani's tenure, I didn't feel any safer. For one point, I honestly think during Giuliani and Bloomberg, visual gang presence on the streets was way more prominent than it is now. I remember being a freshman in college ('99-'00) and choosing not to buy cigarettes before I got onto the train to go to school because of a bunch of Bloods standing outside of the store. Speaking for myself, I can't remember the last time I've seen gang members in show like that.
I think my neighborhood was worse back when I first moved there 11 years ago compared to now. When we first bought the co-op, gunshots were routine on the weekends. One Sunday morning as I'm making breakfast, detectives even knocked on my door to ask if I heard or saw anything related to a shooting that happened the night before. That was during Bloomberg.
My point is it's all smoke and mirrors. People's perceptions are easily altered. What matters most is one's comfort level, but this can be easily manipulated with words and pictures.
Did you personally feel any effects of a crime increase since deBlasio took office? Is it because of what you read or watch on TV? Did you suddenly not start feeling safe in DUMBO?
DUMBO was gentrified and "yuppie ready". I was a single dude and bought a 1 br so I knew wasn't going to live there the rest of my life. I never thought I would leave the city until I had kids (they are expensive). Brownsville and ENY (which I actually lived briefly when I was kid) are not gentrified, and probably will never be. You ain't gonna find luxury condos there, so not sure why you even bring that up.
When Deblasio got elected, my street cars parked had their windows smashed more often. Thats the first sign. As for personal safety, I grew up in Bklyn/Queens. Went to Brooklyn College and SUNY Downstate in E. Flatsbush so I'm street savy enough to know not to get my a$$ mugged. But there was in uptick in transplant hipsters walking around cluelessly with headphones on getting mugged in DUMBO, as well as stores getting broken into. I didn't want to wait around for crime to go up and property values to drop like how it did currently.
DUMBO was gentrified and "yuppie ready". I was a single dude and bought a 1 br so I knew wasn't going to live there the rest of my life. I never thought I would leave the city until I had kids (they are expensive). Brownsville and ENY (which I actually lived briefly when I was kid) are not gentrified, and probably will never be. You ain't gonna find luxury condos there, so not sure why you even bring that up.
The reason why I bring Bville/ENY up is because no matter who the mayor was, those neighborhoods still retain a certain aspect of danger so to speak, so while you tout the "accomplishments" of past mayors, for a large segment of the city, nothing changed in terms of crime, and the way those residents deal with crime on a daily basis. "You ain't gonna find luxury condos there" further illustrates my point. Only certain parts of the city (think land value) saw improvement. Smoke and mirrors.
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Originally Posted by 85dumbo
When Deblasio got elected, my street cars parked had their windows smashed more often. Thats the first sign. As for personal safety, I grew up in Bklyn/Queens. Went to Brooklyn College and SUNY Downstate in E. Flatsbush so I'm street savy enough to know not to get my a$$ mugged. But there was in uptick in transplant hipsters walking around cluelessly with headphones on getting mugged in DUMBO, as well as stores getting broken into. I didn't want to wait around for crime to go up and property values to drop like how it did currently.
Meh. Certain suburbs also have a lot of property crime too (burglaries, property damage), but very low violent crime rates. I'm not saying that your move to LI was not within reason, but I feel your perception was a bit skewed. Keep in mind, Brooklyn is still Brooklyn no matter what.
Have you ever thought about moving to Boston?
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"The man who sleeps on the floor, can never fall out of bed." -Martin Lawrence
The reason why I bring Bville/ENY up is because no matter who the mayor was, those neighborhoods still retain a certain aspect of danger so to speak, so while you tout the "accomplishments" of past mayors, for a large segment of the city, nothing changed in terms of crime, and the way those residents deal with crime on a daily basis. "You ain't gonna find luxury condos there" further illustrates my point. Only certain parts of the city (think land value) saw improvement. Smoke and mirrors.
Meh. Certain suburbs also have a lot of property crime too (burglaries, property damage), but very low violent crime rates. I'm not saying that your move to LI was not within reason, but I feel your perception was a bit skewed. Keep in mind, Brooklyn is still Brooklyn no matter what.
Have you ever thought about moving to Boston?
Although ENY and Brownsville were never gentrified, I'm sure overall safety improved under Giuliani/Bloomberg. And the recent uptick in Gun violence in those neighborhoods is real and not perception.
I can speak from personal experience about East Flatbush, where my medical school was located. When I was at medschool 1996-2000, the area was dangerous. Most med students lived on-campus which was behind security gates. There were shuttles to the subway station because it was that dangerous. One foolish student who decided to actually live in apt building outside of the campus was shot in her lobby. So E Flatbush was not a nice hood.
After graduation in 2000, I went on to Rochester MN, and Chicago for additional medical training. When I returned to NYC in 2006, and revisited E. Flatbush and my medschool after Giuliani and Bloomberg cleaned it up, the change was remarkable. White hipsters walking all over E. Flatbush with headphones on, clueless to their surroundings and not worrying about getting mugged. Never thought I would see that in my lifetime. And the fact that I even bought a condo in Dumbo speaks to real safety under R regimes. When I was kid, DUMBO was the place where squeegee bums would attack your car when you got off the Manhattan Bridge. I never thought in a million years it would get gentrified and I would by a condo there as an adult. I never met a white hipster from Ohio before I left NYC, and when I returned, NYC was flooded with them since NYC became safe in reality not perception.
But thanks to Deblasio, its back to the bad old days.
Last edited by 85dumbo; 11-17-2020 at 09:21 AM..
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