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Where do you see New York State in 30 years? What will be the 5 largest cities in the State? What will the States population be? How will the economy be? etc.
Official estimates say the population peaks at 20,000,000 in 2020 and declines thereafter. And if current trends persist then they will. But as oil becomes more and more expensive and fresh water becomes more and more rare I think New York could rebound.
About 30 years ago NY was all ready to become a giant version of Detroit and Michigan but what saved it in the NY City region was the 80s Wall Street renassaince.
I think continued decline both population and economically except maybe in the NY City area. I say "maybe" to that because it depends on the health of the financial industry and to what extent foreigners continue to come to NY, be it as poor immigrants or as the wealthy buying up Manhattan real estate. NYC was always an expensive place to be, and it is more than ever and I think without an uber-wealthy industry like Wall St. booming to fuel that we could see another 1970s style collapse.
Official estimates say the population peaks at 20,000,000 in 2020 and declines thereafter. And if current trends persist then they will. But as oil becomes more and more expensive and fresh water becomes more and more rare I think New York could rebound.
I this is where Upstate NY can actually come back. We have some natural resources here that will be in demand as the nation's population increases. I believe there is a possibility that there are some parts of the state will see some drilling for natural gas in the near future too. New York state releases Marcellus shale drilling proposal - Oil & Gas Journal
If two things remain the same, NY tax policy and NYC being the countries financial capital, things will remain virtually the same. Upstate NY will continue to decline and NYC will always be up and down as the US economy waxes and wanes. Things like population growth in NYC may change slightly over the years, but as long as it has it's financial power, it will continue to be important.
Some of the Upstate regions have natural resources, some are already being used. But is it enough? Drilling for gas is great, but it is dirty, we want to move away from dirty industry and go into the more profitable biomedical research and manufacturing. As near as I can tell, a large offshore oil rig employs up to 200 people (no exact source). Thats the size of a small manufacturing company. The other problem is the contamination of drinking water. We already have the largest supply of fresh water in the world, if that gets screwed up, we affect tens of millions of people.
If two things remain the same, NY tax policy and NYC being the countries financial capital, things will remain virtually the same. Upstate NY will continue to decline and NYC will always be up and down as the US economy waxes and wanes. Things like population growth in NYC may change slightly over the years, but as long as it has it's financial power, it will continue to be important.
Some of the Upstate regions have natural resources, some are already being used. But is it enough? Drilling for gas is great, but it is dirty, we want to move away from dirty industry and go into the more profitable biomedical research and manufacturing. As near as I can tell, a large offshore oil rig employs up to 200 people (no exact source). Thats the size of a small manufacturing company. The other problem is the contamination of drinking water. We already have the largest supply of fresh water in the world, if that gets screwed up, we affect tens of millions of people.
Good points on your last paragraph. I know some parts of the state, like Syracuse, is getting into more Green technology and energy. So, it will be interesting to see if parts of the state will go one way or the other, if not a little bit of both dirty and green energy.
I wonder if the Buffalo area, with the potential of power output, will be an area that gets more involved with that industry and researching new ways to use that industry.
Good points on your last paragraph. I know some parts of the state, like Syracuse, is getting into more Green technology and energy. So, it will be interesting to see if parts of the state will go one way or the other, if not a little bit of both dirty and green energy.
I wonder if the Buffalo area, with the potential of power output, will be an area that gets more involved with that industry and researching new ways to use that industry.
Buffalo has some high tech industry already...Greatbatch Medical, ITT, Northrup Grumman, Calspan, to name a few, but it needs to build up more. The medical industry is far more stable, they may loose jobs due to the economy, but nothing like the automotive, service sector and financial jobs. People will need health care, medicine and medical devices even with a complete financial breakdown.
Niagara Falls in terms of power, really isn't beneficial as it used to be. It is green energy, however, you can set up nuclear/coal power plants anywhere these days. Niagara Falls put up against all of the other power plants in the state is relatively small.
We also shouldn't forget Albany's booming nanotech business. Albany leads the entire world in nanotech research.
While it may be the leader, I think of lot of how that will affect Albany will depend on how much it grows as an industry. My alma mater (RPI) back when I graduated in the late 80s was trying to push an "incubator tech park" to promote high tech industry in the Capital Region and while it still exists, I'd hardly call it "the next Silicon Valley". Yes, MapInfo (one of its first tenants) stayed in the region, but I remember back then they were literally begging to get Sematech, and they chose Austin because of the climate, tax structure and quality of life (though in some ways I'm not sure QOL is really better down there).
I wonder if the Buffalo area, with the potential of power output, will be an area that gets more involved with that industry and researching new ways to use that industry.
Buffalo and Niagara Falls would be a darn sight better off if most of the power came here and didn't go to NYC.
My power [NYSEG elec} comes not from the Falls [30 min away] but from the Kinzua Dam [a few hours away].
Two things could easily help this area:
1) More hydro power from the Falls ( less than 5% of the water is actually diverted)
2) The hydro power being used here, not downstate
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