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Greensboro has more land area than Durham, and both cities statistically have room to grow their populations within their current boundary.
If we presume that NC's largest cities have more similarities than differences among their development models, and if we take Raleigh's population density (which has the most ppl/m2 among the largest cities), then both Greensboro and Durham have the ability to grow well past 300,000 each. Greensboro could push 400,000 as it has more land area in its limits than Durham. It's easy to imagine Durham around 340,000.
That said, there needs to be a driver for the growth, and that seems to be more evident in the Triangle than it does in the Triad.
Well, Rocky Mount didn't lose as much as trends indicated, but still, Burlington and Apex will likely pass it in population by 2021 if not this year. Even with that big move of the NC Department of Motor Vehicles headquarters from Raleigh to Rocky Mount this year
but rocky mt population was 54k last year, so it grew a little in a year. hopefully it continue to grow as the years pass, as more industries coming to the area
I think in Greensboro's case, even if Durham surpasses Greensboro in the upcoming years, Greensboro does have the ability to ultimately grow a permanent larger population than Durham due to the fact that Guilford County is much bigger geographically than Durham County and there is just much more land to annex. Eventually Durham will run out of land to annex and will have to rely solely on new people moving into the city. Currently Greensboro is heavily relying on annexation but when Greensboro's economy start boom on the level of Raleigh and Durham, Greensboro will be able to grow its population quite a bit through annexation and immigration. Once Durham runs out of room to expand, the city is going to have to combat this problem with how new development is built. Developers are going to have to focus less on typical subdivisions and build more compact and dense residential development.
Here is a map of population growth in the NC counties between 2010 and 2018. Guilford County, while still not on the level of Wake and Mecklenburg, is starting to see an uptick in people moving to the county. Guilford County leads the Triad in population growth.
But there is a difference between Guilford County and Wake/Mecklenburg. Notice the surrounding
and outlying counties of Wake and Mecklenburg saw significant gains in population growth. Population around Guilford County is mixed. Rockingham County directly north of Guilford lost population and there are smaller gains in Randolph County to the south. The only counties around Guilford that are a darker blue are Alamance and Forsyth. Even the way land is developed, when you drive through the Raleigh or Charlotte areas you go from rural to suburban to urban. Greensboro is different. You go from rural to urban. It doesn't take long to start seeing farm land or very conservative rural towns when you leave Greensboro or Winston-Salem.
I think in Greensboro's case, even if Durham surpasses Greensboro in the upcoming years, Greensboro does have the ability to ultimately grow a permanent larger population than Durham due to the fact that Guilford County is much bigger geographically than Durham County and there is just much more land to annex. Eventually Durham will run out of land to annex and will have to rely solely on new people moving into the city. Currently Greensboro is heavily relying on annexation but when Greensboro's economy start boom on the level of Raleigh and Durham, Greensboro will be able to grow its population quite a bit through annexation and immigration. Once Durham runs out of room to expand, the city is going to have to combat this problem with how new development is built. Developers are going to have to focus less on typical subdivisions and build more compact and dense residential development.
Here is a map of population growth in the NC counties between 2010 and 2018. Guilford County, while still not on the level of Wake and Mecklenburg, is starting to see an uptick in people moving to the county. Guilford County leads the Triad in population growth.
But there is a difference between Guilford County and Wake/Mecklenburg. Notice the surrounding
and outlying counties of Wake and Mecklenburg saw significant gains in population growth. Population around Guilford County is mixed. Rockingham County directly north of Guilford lost population and there are smaller gains in Randolph County to the south. The only counties around Guilford that are a darker blue are Alamance and Forsyth. Even the way land is developed, when you drive through the Raleigh or Charlotte areas you go from rural to suburban to urban. Greensboro is different. You go from rural to urban. It doesn't take long to start seeing farm land or very conservative rural towns when you leave Greensboro or Winston-Salem.
Annexation laws have become MUCH more strict in NC in the past 10 years.
Greensboro (or any NC city) being able to annex itself into a significantly higher population is a thing of the past.
The last city in NC to get way with that was Fayetteville; and that was before the annexation laws changed (and probably a what triggered it).
Plus...do you really see Browns Summit and Summerfield as being part of "the City of Greensboro". Pretty unlikely.
Currently Greensboro is heavily relying on annexation but when Greensboro's economy start boom on the level of Raleigh and Durham, Greensboro will be able to grow its population quite a bit through annexation and immigration.
I think in Greensboro's case, even if Durham surpasses Greensboro in the upcoming years, Greensboro does have the ability to ultimately grow a permanent larger population than Durham due to the fact that Guilford County is much bigger geographically than Durham County and there is just much more land to annex. Eventually Durham will run out of land to annex and will have to rely solely on new people moving into the city. Currently Greensboro is heavily relying on annexation but when Greensboro's economy start boom on the level of Raleigh and Durham, Greensboro will be able to grow its population quite a bit through annexation and immigration. Once Durham runs out of room to expand, the city is going to have to combat this problem with how new development is built. Developers are going to have to focus less on typical subdivisions and build more compact and dense residential development.
Here is a map of population growth in the NC counties between 2010 and 2018. Guilford County, while still not on the level of Wake and Mecklenburg, is starting to see an uptick in people moving to the county. Guilford County leads the Triad in population growth.
But there is a difference between Guilford County and Wake/Mecklenburg. Notice the surrounding
and outlying counties of Wake and Mecklenburg saw significant gains in population growth. Population around Guilford County is mixed. Rockingham County directly north of Guilford lost population and there are smaller gains in Randolph County to the south. The only counties around Guilford that are a darker blue are Alamance and Forsyth. Even the way land is developed, when you drive through the Raleigh or Charlotte areas you go from rural to suburban to urban. Greensboro is different. You go from rural to urban. It doesn't take long to start seeing farm land or very conservative rural towns when you leave Greensboro or Winston-Salem.
The problem with this map is that it graphically treats all counties that added more than 30,000 equally.
Wake and Mecklenburg have spent this decade adding 30,000 people every 15-18 months or so.
Since 2010 and through 2018, Wake added 191,312, Mecklenburg added 174,273, Durham added 49,152, and Guilford added 45,264.
Wake and Mecklenburg will end the decade with over 200,000 new residents each. Durham will likely be in the +60,000 range, and Guilford will be in the +55,000 range.
Annexation laws have become MUCH more strict in NC in the past 10 years.
Greensboro (or any NC city) being able to annex itself into a significantly higher population is a thing of the past.
The last city in NC to get way with that was Fayetteville; and that was before the annexation laws changed (and probably a what triggered it).
Plus...do you really see Browns Summit and Summerfield as being part of "the City of Greensboro". Pretty unlikely.
Laws are fluid depending on who is in control. I can see some changes being made when the Democrats control the General Assembly again.
Brown Summit and Summerfield won't be a part of Greensboro because they incorporated to prevent that from happening. It's the reason why big cities are surrounded by so many suburbs. Fortunately Greensboro is not totally surrounded by incorporated communities.
The problem with this map is that it graphically treats all counties that added more than 30,000 equally.
Wake and Mecklenburg have spent this decade adding 30,000 people every 15-18 months or so.
Since 2010 and through 2018, Wake added 191,312, Mecklenburg added 174,273, Durham added 49,152, and Guilford added 45,264.
Wake and Mecklenburg will end the decade with over 200,000 new residents each. Durham will likely be in the +60,000 range, and Guilford will be in the +55,000 range.
At 48,045 from 2010-2018, York county SC is almost identical to Durham. By 2022, York county should reach 300,000. When it comes to raw numbers, York is SC's 2nd fastest growing county. I understand that this is NC'S forum, but we all know that York is very much so synonymous with Charlotte.
I agree, I don't think it's a given. I think it's pretty likely due to its location and its "bones" but it may be awhile yet. I think that the state has a pretty unique opportunity to develop this "urban crescent" into a solid and booming connection of cities. If that opportunity gets fleshed out, who knows.
Pipe dream would be hyperloop or some other truly high speed train going through Raleigh, RTP, Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Greensboro, Winston, Concord, Charlotte. How I wish
The Triad is still transitioning from the "tobacco-textiles-furniture" economy of the past, and it is making some progress in that regard. Generating new 21st century jobs will be the key. If they are successful in doing that, the population growth will follow.
The Winston-Salem Journal had an article in today's paper, discussing the loss of so many corporate headquarters over the years, and what they need to do to turn things around.
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