Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
That's all well and good but we have to be careful with blanket statements.
I think that's Meatkins point. Most black people do vote democratic, but not all. Its...just annoying when people try to put you in a box.
I mean going back to the point of this thread, traditionally the Maryland suburbs and the District the places where black local residents choose to reside. However, some break away from that norm. Although I will admit that the actual original questions asks why area black population isn't more evenly distributed. My point is that you can't paint people with one brush.
For me personally it just makes sense to live in Virginia. I've never had a job in DC or Maryland. Although with a job interview downtown today. That might change but chances are I still wont' be moving to PG county.
Last edited by terrence81; 09-29-2011 at 06:37 AM..
Now it might be interesting to run a study on which subgroups of African-Americans vote Republican, or even if there are such trends.
Are they old folks that think they're still voting for Lincoln? 25-45 year old Buppies who don't like high taxes? HS dropouts who blame Mexicans for their lack of jobs?
And yeah -- even though Blacks might be relatively monolithic politically, they certainly are not behavior-wise. Hence assuming, "oh you want to live in DC or Prince George's" is somewhat insulting.
And this link just said in 2004 that 74% voted Democratic in 2004, and 88% voted for a Democratic President. I still don't see where the 90% is coming from, from you? Yes I've seen reports that have said that at some point in time, but I also just showed you several studies that said it was less, which is my point. You can't use some study and make an assumption about an entire group of individuals. Everybody is going to have some sort of bias when reporting figures like this, it's human nature. I never disagreed with your premise that most blacks vote democratic, I just disagree with the degree in which you are saying blacks do.
That's all well and good but we have to be careful with blanket statements.
That's all well and good, but we should point out exactly who is making "blanket statements." My first sentence on this topic was "Some ethnic groups are more monolithic than others." Meaning it was comparative, not absolute.
Quote:
I think that's Meatkins point.
No, Meatkins' persistent point was that ALL blacks had to vote the same way to be described as "politically monolithic." That is just not the case. Anytime a demographic category (be it "blacks" or "evangelicals" or what have you) votes consistently in large majorities over decades, one can justifiably describe it as being "politically monolithic."
Quote:
Most black people do vote democratic, but not all. Its...just annoying when people try to put you in a box.
I don't remember anyone putting YOU in a box. Certainly not I. We are discussing comparative demographic issues here. No one is talking about individuals and certainly not you.
Quote:
My point is that you can't paint people with one brush.
Again, I don't know anyone disputes that here. You and Meatkins seem insistent on rebuking a strawman no one supports here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by meatkins
And this link just said in 2004 that 74% voted Democratic in 2004, and 88% voted for a Democratic President. I still don't see where the 90% is coming from, from you?
The number for 2008 was 96%, but of course that might be argued as an exception.
Quote:
You can't use some study and make an assumption about an entire group of individuals.
Who is making an assumption about an entire group of individuals? Who is this malevolent phantom that keeps claiming that ALL blacks vote the same way?
Quote:
I never disagreed with your premise that most blacks vote democratic, I just disagree with the degree in which you are saying blacks do.
Well, sure, we can quibble on the exact percentages. If you don't think it's 90%, I concede that was a "ball park" estimate. But it's clear that at least since the mid-1960s, an overwhelming majority of blacks have voted for the Democratic Party:
Since 1964, 74% has been the LOWEST number. I'd say from the party ID the average since 64 has been about 85% (inclusive of 2008, it may reach close to 90%).
In comparison, for example, the Asian-Americans vote for the Democratic Party has varied from as low as 30+ percent to about 60 percent and depends more on individual elections and candidates (Hispanic voters are somewhere in middle in terms of how devoted they are to one party), hence my original statement "some ethnic groups are more monolithic than others."
I don't see why that is so objectionable... unless of course you think being politically monolithic is a negative trait and wish not to publicize the fact.
Well, sure, we can quibble on the exact percentages. If you don't think it's 90%, I concede that was a "ball park" estimate. But it's clear that at least since the mid-1960s, an overwhelming majority of blacks have voted for the Democratic Party:
Oh come on you are basically stating that 2008 was more of the norm of blacks voted when all across this country, people of all races voted Democratic. That is the reason why we had a Democratic House, Senate, and President. We were at the beginning of the recession, when we had a Republican President in office, it is very understandable and logical as to why people across all races voted Democratic. A great majority of the people in this nation felt as though this country needed a new direction. You are using that year as your "ball park estimate" completely negates the fact that 4 years before, the study that you picked showed that it was only 74%. Even for argument sake we assume your figures are accurate, the chart that you posted shows a fluctuation of figures. Some years look close to 90% and other years look closer to 75-80%. It's just not 90%, even from the study you are showing because clearly those figure do not show 90% every 4 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
Since 1964, 74% has been the LOWEST number. I'd say from the party ID the average since 64 has been about 85% (inclusive of 2008, it may reach close to 90%).
In comparison, for example, the Asian-Americans vote for the Democratic Party has varied from as low as 30+ percent to about 60 percent and depends more on individual elections and candidates (Hispanic voters are somewhere in middle in terms of how devoted they are to one party), hence my original statement "some ethnic groups are more monolithic than others."
I don't see why that is so objectionable... unless of course you think being politically monolithic is a negative trait and wish not to publicize the fact.
You originally stated that the blacks in this country vote "politically monolithic" but now you're saying that blacks are more monolithic than others? Again it is true that a majority of blacks vote Democratic, there is no denying that, but to say that blacks are monolithic is indeed a blanket statement and ignorant in my opinion because it doesn't even account for differences in subgroups amongst blacks. As others have already mentioned, if you break down these figures by economics, regions in this country, beliefs and possibly by education, you would probably get a much different picture of how black people actually vote. Why does it seem as though blacks are still more than likely to vote democratic? Could it be that a majority of black people are less likely to be educated and have wealth, and therefore may view the country different than those who are educated and/or have wealth? Perhaps, but if you break down almost any race by demographics, I'm sure you are going to find similar trends. The state in which you live in this country really determines how you view things. The statement being "politically monolithic" completely eliminates those blacks who actually don't vote Democratic, which may vary from year to year but also is influenced by the state in which our country is in.
Oh come on you are basically stating that 2008 was more of the norm of blacks voted when all across this country, people of all races voted Democratic.
No, you clearly misunderstood me. I used 90% as a ball park estimate based on all the years since 64, INCLUSIVE of 2008, NOT solely based on 2008, which I stated early as possibly being an exception due to unique circumstances.
Quote:
You originally stated that the blacks in this country vote "politically monolithic" but now you're saying that blacks are more monolithic than others?
The FIRST thing I wrote was that "some ethnic groups are more monolithic than others." And, yes, blacks are far more politically monolithic than, say, Asians in this country.
Quote:
Again it is true that a majority of blacks vote Democratic, there is no denying that, but to say that blacks are monolithic is indeed a blanket statement and ignorant in my opinion because it doesn't even account for differences in subgroups amongst blacks.
Blacks don't just vote as a simple "majority" which could be 50% plus 1. Their lowest party ID for Democrats was 74%. Lowest! 74%! And usually hover around 85%. In political terms, that IS monolithic.
That does not mean there aren't blacks who vote the other way -- there clearly are. It's just that an overwhelming majority of blacks CONSISTENTLY vote for one party. That is a fact. Why is that so hard for you to accept?
Quote:
As others have already mentioned, if you break down these figures by economics, regions in this country, beliefs and possibly by education, you would probably get a much different picture of how black people actually vote.
That's just it. Blacks are far more likely to vote for one party than whites even when these other factors are equalized.
Quote:
Why does it seem as though blacks are still more than likely to vote democratic? Could it be that a majority of black people are less likely to be educated and have wealth, and therefore may view the country different than those who are educated and/or have wealth? Perhaps, but if you break down almost any race by demographics, I'm sure you are going to find similar trends. The state in which you live in this country really determines how you view things.
Again, while non-ethnic demographic factors have an influence (naturally) on how people vote, with some ethnic groups these effects are smaller or bigger. And THAT is exactly what we are talking about here. Put sociologically, with blacks "ethnic political solidarity" is much higher than whites, substantially higher than Asians and somewhat higher than Hispanics.
By the way, in terms of wealth, among whites, as a rule of thumb, the lower and the upper classes generally vote in higher numbers for Democrats and the middle class generally votes Republican.
Quote:
The statement being "politically monolithic" completely eliminates those blacks who actually don't vote Democratic, which may vary from year to year but also is influenced by the state in which our country is in.
No, it does not "eliminate" them. It simply says there are much fewer in number than those who vote the other way.
I think you are fixating on the term "monolithic" which, while it means literally a block of stone, is routinely used (particularly in politics) to refer to a group of people who, by a wide and consistent margin, vote for one way or the other (e.g. evangelicals, Mormons, etc.). Heck, Harry Reid is a Democrat and a Mormon, but it's a plain fact that a vast majority of Mormons vote Republican, which is why Utah is now the most consistently Republican state in the country. So, yes, sociologists might say that Mormons have a high degree of "religious political solidarity" and political commentators may say that Mormons are more politically monolithic than, say, Catholics. One might even state, plainly, that Mormons ARE politically monolithic. That does not mean any thinks that ALL Mormons vote that way.
And that number is not exact, for that matter, but a good approximation.
The phrase "some 42 million blacks" was not meant to imply any exactitude or precision. Blacks are born and die every hour of every day. The exact number of blacks extant at any given moment was not material in context.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
For once we agree.
Pshaw! We agree whenever you post things that are accurate.
People seem to have a hard time grasping the study of statistics. It's a shame really. The retort that not all of a group engages in a particular behavior therefore any attempt to draw conclusions from a study or observation is invalid is utterly asinine.
Propagandists benefit from at least ignorance and perhaps even moreso misconceptions about statistics, so they do all they can to propagate such. Some people are taken in and as the result are misled.
Last edited by saganista; 09-30-2011 at 01:30 PM..
You think studies are accurate? They are a lot of time agendas used by organizations to project a certain message. For instance if I worked for an organization and I wanted to prove how Democratic northern va is I could simply go to Arlington county and eastern fairfax to support a notion that nova is more democratic but in reality it is probably not as i make it look. Newspapers like the Washington post, channels like fox news and CNN do it all the time.
No, in fact they never do this. A critical part of polling is creation of a sample that is as fully representative of the population at large as possible. Deliberately skewing the sample is the opposite of polling. And of course it is not these media outlets who do the polling. They only pay for it and then try to take credit for it. Post-ABC News polls for instance are done by people such as TNS Intersearch, a professional polling company in Pennsylvania. If those folks actually did as you suggest they do, they would never have a client again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by meatkins
That's why any study I look at, I always look to see how they obtain their information. There was an article a few months ago from the post that stated a majority of va supports gay marriages, but as you read through the article you noticed they only polled 1100...
The poll you linked to was from six months ago and it was a national poll. The actual sample size of 1,005 is more than statistically adequate. This is one reason why it found similar results as other polls on the same topic conducted through Pew, the AP, and CNN.
Quote:
Originally Posted by meatkins
...the statistician always seems to support liberal views...
Any truth in that statement derives substantially from the fact that non-liberal views are so thoroughly a pack of lies that no honest research or analysis will actually support them. Hence, good statistics may seem liberal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by meatkins
Unless you have some study that accounts for every black person in this nation there is always a margin of error.
There would be a margin of error even if you did account for every black person in the country. It would merely be a lot smaller. The question is how small do you need it to be?
Last edited by saganista; 09-30-2011 at 01:31 PM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
.jpg)
