Bill to Study Bringing Metro to Woodbridge & Centreville

[dkf747]

Originally Posted by finalmove

Good post. I too may be missing something, but 10-years ago, when homebuyers made a decision to move even further out to Gainesville for example, for cheaper land and the fleeting "quality of life", they surely knew that the Vienna station was the end of the line.
Now, those residents want the end of the line to be near them. What happens when the train leaves this new Centreville station filled to capacity. What then do the riders waiting at Vienna do when that same eight-car train arrives at their station? No room for additional riders at only the second of eight or nine stops. What about those waiting at the Dunn Loring station? Any room on that eight-car train for those riders?
It just seems that the capacity is finite, and there's only so many seats that can be made available during a typical 2-hour rush peak.

They do the same thing riders east of Vienna do. The trains leave Vienna packed now. What do people in Ballston, Clarendon, or Courthouse do? I'm not getting that part of your post. I do get that there is only so much capacity.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by dkf747

They do the same thing riders east of Vienna do. The trains leave Vienna packed now. What do people in Ballston, Clarendon, or Courthouse do? I'm not getting that part of your post. I do get that there is only so much capacity.

Its shown in the usership numbers in Arlington that there is about a 65-35 entrance to exit ratio at Ballston and Rosslyn. People need to break the idea that DC is the only place people work. By the numbers more people in Virginia work in Fairfax and Arlington than they do in DC. This is the greatest element of the underestimate to past projections on Orange Line (one of the few things WMATA runs that actually makes a profit above 100% fare box recover) and for the future Silver Line. They are both serving residential communities and employment hubs.

[finalmove]

Originally Posted by dkf747

They do the same thing riders east of Vienna do. The trains leave Vienna packed now. What do people in Ballston, Clarendon, or Courthouse do? I'm not getting that part of your post. I do get that there is only so much capacity.

My point was that the basic concept of the Metro was to serve commuters traveling to the District. No matter how far out from this hub you build a station, it will fill up early on, depriving those at subsequent stations a place on the train. It's can't be helped on a track that is dead-ended. There's only so much time these people can utilize the system during the two rush periods. The trains can only be 8-10 cars long.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by finalmove

My point was that the basic concept of the Metro was to serve commuters traveling to the District. No matter how far out from this hub you build a station, it will fill up early on, depriving those at subsequent stations a place on the train. It's can't be helped on a track that is dead-ended. There's only so much time these people can utilize the system during the two rush periods. The trains can only be 8-10 cars long.

8 cars (and it will take some electrical upgrades to get that). But I think you still miss the point that not everyone is travelling into DC. Some people get off earlier.

Note, I am still against the Orange Line extension for other reasons (namely there is a cheaper and better way to address a lot of the movement by infilling some VRE stations instead and improving frequency).

Also I think you have a slight disregard to the efficiency (number of people capable of being carried by a 6 car train) vs the number of total parking spaces in these outer stations (one of the limited ways people get to the stations comprising the majority of the terminal run travelers). Each 6 car run can carry easily over 500 people comfortably (lost my link to the max capacity #). Considering they can be run at 90 second headways across rosslyn tunnel, so 1 orange every 270 seconds, thats about 110 people per minute on the orange line. Even the largest of the mega parking structures is only in the 2000-3000 range. We are talking about the ability to empty the entire day's usage in a 20 minute window for that station.

The capacity for terminal systems is more constrained by parking/land use than it is by the tunnel to be fair.

[finalmove]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

8 cars (and it will take some electrical upgrades to get that). But I think you still miss the point that not everyone is travelling into DC. Some people get off earlier.

Note, I am still against the Orange Line extension for other reasons (namely there is a cheaper and better way to address a lot of the movement by infilling some VRE stations instead and improving frequency).

Also I think you have a slight disregard to the efficiency (number of people capable of being carried by a 6 car train) vs the number of total parking spaces in these outer stations (one of the limited ways people get to the stations comprising the majority of the terminal run travelers). Each 6 car run can carry easily over 500 people comfortably (lost my link to the max capacity #). Considering they can be run at 90 second headways across rosslyn tunnel, so 1 orange every 270 seconds, thats about 110 people per minute on the orange line. Even the largest of the mega parking structures is only in the 2000-3000 range. We are talking about the ability to empty the entire day's usage in a 20 minute window for that station.

The capacity for terminal systems is more constrained by parking/land use than it is by the tunnel to be fair.

I see. Your stats are helpful.

[dkf747]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Its shown in the usership numbers in Arlington that there is about a 65-35 entrance to exit ratio at Ballston and Rosslyn. People need to break the idea that DC is the only place people work. By the numbers more people in Virginia work in Fairfax and Arlington than they do in DC. This is the greatest element of the underestimate to past projections on Orange Line (one of the few things WMATA runs that actually makes a profit above 100% fare box recover) and for the future Silver Line. They are both serving residential communities and employment hubs.

That 65-35 number is interesting, but my eyeballs didn't see it that way. It still seems like a large majority are working in DC. I haven't seen those numbers before, though.

[snowdenscold]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

By the numbers more people in Virginia work in Fairfax and Arlington than they do in DC.

Does that refers to Orange Line metro riders or just people who live in Nova in general? Obviously the second part is true, but I'm curious out of all the people who get on between Vienna and Rosslyn, what % have DC as their destination for work?

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by snowdenscold

Does that refers to Orange Line metro riders or just people who live in Nova in general? Obviously the second part is true, but I'm curious out of all the people who get on between Vienna and Rosslyn, what % have DC as their destination for work?

Thats a valid question. It was for total jobs regional (not broken down by metro rider).

WMATA had a map of each station with offloading vs new passengers at station. Will try to find and post in this thread.

Found

The avg in Arlington is 35-65 (getting off vs getting on), but you can see in Ballston more people actually get off than on, and the same is true at Rosslyn.

[stpickrell]

The Silver Line would certainly see a lot of comings and goings especially when it hits Ashburn. There's already lots built up at the Airport, in Herndon/Reston, and Tysons around the Metro stops.

OTOH, Centreville and Woodbridge don't have much in the way of a job base.

Now, as I said before, Orange Line out to something starting with Fair (where there are some jobs) might be slightly defensible but way down the list. I'd rather see that $$$ put into beefing up VRE (to The Plains or even Front Royal if the line can be improved in NW Fauquier, and then to Richmond VA) and getting better commuter bus service (maybe even running 24/7 or having a covered/heated waiting area.)