Is Pennsylvania's state politics different from the rest of the country? (Philadelphia: purchases, construction)

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

BajanYankee

I will try to say this in the most respectful way possible. I think you are missing a few things here

Dude, I already said that NYC is huge and constitutes a larger percentage of the vote in NY than Philly/Pittsburgh do in PA. Now I'm convinced that you guys don't really read posts, you just start writing. If you had read my posts, you would have noticed that. There's nothing more irritating than people trying to tell you something you've already said.

Originally Posted by trackstar13

How does PA and specifically western PA compare to WV and OH? I think you are forgetting that PA is pretty liberal when compared to our western and southwestern neighbors. You seem to only want to compare to certain areas that fit your argument.

The chart doesn't compare certain areas. It compares whole states. So if you have a big, liberal city like Philadelphia, then you must have a whole lot of conservatives to make it even more conservative than Iowa, right?

To answer your question, Western PA is very similar to Ohio. Ohio is only slightly more socially conservative than PA (per the chart I posted), but that's to be expected since the urbanized population is also smaller. If you reduced Philadelphia to the size of Cleveland, you would indeed have a state that was slightly Republican leaning.

Originally Posted by trackstar13

Why are NJ and OH on the list of most moderate states while PA is not?

What list are you talking about?

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Sayid Linus

Except we don't have referendum here.
Cool link. Lots of red on that map which is a tad surprising for MD.

Not really. Maryland is around 30-31% African American. And much of the Baltimore metro is composed of white, working-class voters who are not so hot on same sex marriage. It doesn't really matter now because it's the law there.

That said, reducing hostility towards Question 6 in the African American and Hispanic communities was integral to its success. Without the split in the black vote (I believe 45% of AAs voted "Yes"), the measure would have died. Back in 2004, AAs were opposed to gay marriage by some ridiculous margin (can't remember specifically).

So gay marriage hasn't really had much sticking power as a wedge, social issue. It's really abortion and guns.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Dude, I already said that NYC is huge and constitutes a larger percentage of the vote in NY than Philly/Pittsburgh do in DC. Now I'm convinced that you guys don't really read posts, you just start writing. If you had read my posts, you would have noticed that. There's nothing more irritating than people trying to tell you something you've already said.

The chart doesn't compare certain areas. It compares whole states. So if you have a big, liberal city like Philadelphia, then you must have a whole lot of conservatives to make it even more conservative than Iowa, right?

To answer your question, Western PA is very similar to Ohio. Ohio is only slightly more socially conservative than PA (per the chart I posted), but that's to be expected since the urbanized population is also smaller. If you reduced Philadelphia to the size of Cleveland, you would indeed have a state that was slightly Republican leaning.

What list are you talking about?

If you understand what you posted in the first part of this post, this thread would fail to exist. There is nothing more irritating than someone stating they understand something when it is obvious they do not.

Your second thought makes no sense because you mention NY, MD and VA as more liberal than PA, yet fail to fully realize the impact of NYC and DC on the political leanings of these areas. Not sure how Iowa came into the picture, but I think you fail to separate moderates and conservatives. For instance, NJ is slightly more liberal than PA, but also more moderate. In other words, while NJ may have less conservatives than PA, the moderates can be swayed either way so this needs to be considered when comparing states.

Finally, the list I am referring to was posted by Sayid earlier:


Alabama, North Dakota, Wyoming Most Conservative States

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

If you understand what you posted in the first part of this post, this thread would fail to exist. There is nothing more irritating than someone stating they understand something when it is obvious they do not.

If you read all of my posts, then you wouldn't be stating such non-sense.

Originally Posted by trackstar13

Your second thought makes no sense because you mention NY, MD and VA as more liberal than PA, yet fail to fully realize the impact of NYC and DC on the political leanings of these areas. Not sure how Iowa came into the picture, but I think you fail to separate moderates and conservatives.

Well, then there's no point in really continuing the conversation. If PA voters as a whole are as socially conservative as Iowa voters, then that means there are some rather conservative folks outside of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and the Lehigh Valley making it so. Iowa, unlike, Pennsylvania, does not have big cities to temper the conservative vote.

Originally Posted by trackstar13

For instance, NJ is slightly more liberal than PA, but also more moderate. In other words, while NJ may have less conservatives than PA, the moderates can be swayed either way so this needs to be considered when comparing states.

There are basically two types of conservatism: economic and social. Pennsylvania is an economically liberal state. It is a socially conservative state. I was talking specifically about social conservatives because some have suggested that the conservatives in Pennsylvania are not "true" conservatives on social issues. But the exit polling data puts that myth to rest.

Gallup's data is not that granular. They're just asking people "Do you identify as conservative, moderate or liberal?" That's not really digging into the heart of what's really causing voters to vote a particular way. With exit polling data, you get to see whether people are "Born Again," union members, pro-choice, etc. And those people get to rate the importance of each of those issues. In essence, it provides a more complete snapshot of the electorate.

[Sayid Linus]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Well, that's not what makes it so anomalous, imo. It's the data that says it's more socially conservative than Virginia that makes it truly anomalous. Pennsylvania, in this sense, is kinda divided in a way that few states are.



The interesting thing about gay marriage is that it's one of the few social issues that's seen such rapid change in public opinion. If you look at polling on the Second Amendment, the polling data is basically the same. Same with abortion. Same with affirmative action. But polling on gay marriage has shifted very dramatically in a very short time. Even in deep red conservative states, the polling on gay marriage has shifted. It's just that nobody pays attention to that fact because the majority of people in those states still oppose it despite the swing in public opinion.

It would be interesting to see what would happen if the question were put to PA voters by referendum. In Maryland, which is considerably more liberal than Pennsylvania (and most Northeastern states for that matter), Question 6 passed by a margin of 52-48.

I just saw where the data says that PA leans more conservative than does VA. Very slightly but I'm surprised by that. I guess NOVA makes up for the rest of the state.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Sayid Linus

I just saw where the data says that PA leans more conservative than does VA. Very slightly but I'm surprised by that. I guess NOVA makes up for the rest of the state.

That's definitely a part of it. But you also have parts of the state that are not really all that socially conservative.

But keep in mind that we're talking social conservatism here. You may have some guy who hates the Democratic social platform with a passion, but if Republicans keep talking about shredding unions, then he'll vote Democratic anyway. So this makes Pennsylvania distinct from the South. I had my oil changed once in North Carolina and the mechanic kept going on and on about how unions were so bad. I'm sure you can find some people in Pennsylvania like that, but I think it's much harder to find a blue collar worker with such vitriol and disdain towards organized labor.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Here's the rub. The data shows that more Pennsylvanians consider themselves "conservative" than in the past two decades. So even if Republicans defect to the Democratic Party (or become Independents), that still doesn't explain why more people are identifying as conservatives. You'd think that the numbers would remain the same (or even decline according to your theory), but that's not what's happened. We've seen the opposite trend.

The Political Express – Are Pennsylvania voters becoming more conservative?

Interesting link, but I would posit that everywhere in America became more fiscally conservative (which, when there's movement to the left on social issues, would be the only outcome that makes sense) over the past 10-15 years, due to rising concern about ballooning deficits and other financial liabilities. It would be interesting to see how that data compares to other states. If anything, there is much more of a Libertarian mindset present in the US today.

Nevertheless, ideological identification stays remarkably stable. Gallup's recent measurement places PA at 38.1% in terms of "conservative" identification (which is more towards the 1990s average in your source). Interestingly, based on "net conservative" identification, Pennsylvania is only the 33rd most conservative state.

This data would also confirm that PA is closer to Ohio than NJ in terms of ideology -- and is the most conservative state of the Northeast. Even so, it is worth noting that even stalwart liberal states like New York and California still have statistically significant conservative identification advantages. Among the liberal Northeast, only Massachusetts and Rhode Island have "liberal" advantages, and they don't even appear to be statistically significant.

Alabama, North Dakota, Wyoming Most Conservative States

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Duderino

This data would also confirm that PA is closer to Ohio than NJ in terms of ideology -- and is the most conservative state of the Northeast. Even so, it is worth noting that even stalwart liberal states like New York and California still statistically significant conservative advantages. Among the liberal Northeast, only Massachusetts and Rhode Island have "liberal" advantages, and they don't even appear to be statistically significant.

Alabama, North Dakota, Wyoming Most Conservative States

Yeah, but New York's advantage is 4.0. Maryland's advantage is 5.2. Pennsylvania's advantage is 15.2

So the question is whether Pennsylvania's 15.2 is closer to New York's 4.0 or closer to Kentucky's 20.0 (rhetorical)? Pennsylvania is a consistently blue state in presidential elections, but only by an uncomfortably slim margin (for my taste anyway).

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

That's definitely a part of it. But you also have parts of the state that are not really all that socially conservative.

Sorry, but are we talking about the same Virginia here? Outside of NOVA -- and maybe pockets of Richmond and Charlottesville -- what other parts aren't really socially conservative?

The Baptist Church dominates in the South, and I think it goes without saying how much of a socially conservative influence the Baptist Church is.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

There are basically two types of conservatism: economic and social. Pennsylvania is an economically liberal state. It is a socially conservative state. I was talking specifically about social conservatives because some have suggested that the conservatives in Pennsylvania are not "true" conservatives on social issues. But the exit polling data puts that myth to rest.

1. What exit polling data are you referring to?

2. Nothing has proven this. We've talked so generically about the term "conservative" but there is absolutely no data that indicates Pennsylvanians are more "socially conservative" than "fiscally conservative" other than you simply saying it.