Is Pennsylvania's state politics different from the rest of the country? (Pittsburgh: university, institutes)

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Duderino

Sorry, but are we talking about the same Virginia here? Outside of NOVA -- and maybe pockets of Richmond and Charlottesville -- what other parts aren't really socially conservative?

The same areas that gave Obama a four point victory in the state (Hampton Roads and Richmond).

Many people forget that Virginia was one of a few states to have an African American governor (Douglas Wilder). And this was back in the early 90s. Since Reconstruction, only Illinois, Massachusetts and Virginia have elected a black Governor or U.S. Senator. So no, the state is not all that conservative if it had a black governor.

And Virginia is not really a super black state. It's less black on a percentage basis than North Carolina. So that means that a number of whites had to vote for him as well.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Duderino

1. What exit polling data are you referring to?

Um, the chart I posted. The chart was compiled using polling data.

Originally Posted by Duderino

Nothing has proven this. We've talked so generically about the term "conservative" but there is absolutely no data that indicates Pennsylvanians are more "socially conservative" than "fiscally conservative" other than you simply saying it.

That's not true. See the below link.

Ranking states by the liberalism/conservatism of their voters « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

[BajanYankee]

Here are the actual indices of economic vs social conservatism:

Economic: are tax rates a problem, favor cutting taxes or strengthening Social Security, federal government should reduce the top tax rate, federal government should adopt flat tax, federal government should spend more on Social Security, favor investing Social Security in stock market, is poverty a problem, federal government should reduce income differences, federal government should spend more on aid to mothers with young children, federal government should expend effort to eliminate many business regulations.

Social: federal government should give school vouchers, federal government should restrict abortion, federal government should ban abortion, favor death penalty, favor handgun licenses, federal government should expend effort to restrict gun purchases, are underpunished criminals a problem, is immigration a problem, favor gays in military, federal government should expend effort to stop job discrimination against gays, federal government should expend effort to stop job discrimination against blacks, federal government should expend effort to stop job discrimination against women, federal government should allow school prayer.

More info on the state liberalism/conservatism graph « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Here are the actual indices of economic vs social conservatism:

More info on the state liberalism/conservatism graph « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Thanks for clarifying. I will note, though, that this modeling is from 2000, which makes it fairly dated.

Other than that, doesn't this demonstrate that PA is socially moderate (as moderate as it gets, in fact, aside from Iowa). Of course, there is also a margin-of-error in this survey. Not to mention, it's only one survey for one election. Additionally, a -.2 to a .2 scale does not seem that dramatic to me.

I'm not saying this survey does not have value whatsoever, but it definitely has limitations.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Duderino

Thanks for clarifying. I will note, though, that this modeling is from 2000, which makes it fairly dated.

Other than that, doesn't this demonstrate that PA is socially moderate (as moderate as it gets, in fact, aside from Iowa). Of course, there is also a margin-of-error in this survey. Not to mention, it's only one survey for one election. Additionally, a -.2 to a .2 scale does not seem that dramatic to me.

I'm not saying this survey does not have value whatsoever, but it definitely has limitations.

LOL. Of course you would say that.

Pennsylvania is socially moderate only if you consider states like Virginia or Iowa to be socially moderate. Not only is Pennsylvania socially conservative by Northeastern standards, it's also more conservative than five Midwestern states (IA, WI, MI, MN, and IL). That basically means that you have a whole lot of conservative voters in the western part of the state that are bringing the average up for the state as a whole. Again, states like Iowa do not have the equivalent of a Philadelphia, so there must be a good deal of socially conservative voters somewhere in Pennsylvania.

Interesting excerpt from the Economist.

To win, Mr Obama will need another whopping turnout among core supporters to counter Republican strength in the “T”, a tree-shaped zone with a trunk and canopy of white, rural districts whose fierce views on guns, God and government are reminiscent of regions farther south (earning it the nickname “Pennsyltucky”). In the state’s south-western corner, the picture is completed by blue-collar, increasingly conservative communities built on such gritty industries as coal and steel.

The swing states: Pennsylvania: Eyes off the prize | The Economist

[Sayid Linus]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

LOL. Of course you would say that.

Pennsylvania is socially moderate only if you consider states like Virginia or Iowa to be socially moderate. Not only is Pennsylvania socially conservative by Northeastern standards, it's also more conservative than five Midwestern states (IA, WI, MI, MN, and IL). That basically means that you have a whole lot of conservative voters in the western part of the state that are bringing the average up for the state as a whole. Again, states like Iowa do not have the equivalent of a Philadelphia, so there must be a good deal of socially conservative voters somewhere in Pennsylvania.

Interesting excerpt from the Economist.



The swing states: Pennsylvania: Eyes off the prize | The Economist

Those 5 states aren't conservative. So PA is more conservative than 5 non conservative states?
I'm not being a jerk when I ask this: what does it matter? I mean, I was trying to explain why I think PA is not that conservative. But you are trying MUCH harder to explain (and in some cases show) that it is. Again, I'm not being flip and I gotta give it to you: you've been very thorough in your research and I learned some (disturbing) things.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by Sayid Linus

Those 5 states aren't conservative. So PA is more conservative than 5 non conservative states?

Exactly. The upper-Midwest has always been known to have have a somewhat liberal streak (it was settled by Scandinavians, after all).

Once again, no one is countering the point that Pennsylvania has a contingent of pretty conservative voters. Although they may comprise a greater share of the state's electorate than those of adjacent states, there is no evidence to suggest their influence is predominate in Pennsylvania, either.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

If you read all of my posts, then you wouldn't be stating such non-sense.

Well, then there's no point in really continuing the conversation. If PA voters as a whole are as socially conservative as Iowa voters, then that means there are some rather conservative folks outside of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and the Lehigh Valley making it so. Iowa, unlike, Pennsylvania, does not have big cities to temper the conservative vote.

There are basically two types of conservatism: economic and social. Pennsylvania is an economically liberal state. It is a socially conservative state. I was talking specifically about social conservatives because some have suggested that the conservatives in Pennsylvania are not "true" conservatives on social issues. But the exit polling data puts that myth to rest.

Gallup's data is not that granular. They're just asking people "Do you identify as conservative, moderate or liberal?" That's not really digging into the heart of what's really causing voters to vote a particular way. With exit polling data, you get to see whether people are "Born Again," union members, pro-choice, etc. And those people get to rate the importance of each of those issues. In essence, it provides a more complete snapshot of the electorate.

I was wondering if this poster was a troll and now it is obvious that yes this poster stinks like troll. Now you are talking about exit polls from a state with a voter discrimination, oops I mean voter id law. Heck with the voter discrimination law even the Amish and Mennonites will have trouble voting because of their religious/cultural beliefs in regards to taking pictures of themselves or others.

Not to mention the fact you fail to grasp the idea of a political moderate. It appears that people some of the "blue" states you are comparing to PA are very moderate, which does not mean liberal. States like NJ and MD may have a higher percentage of liberals than PA, but they also have a higher percentage of moderates. Maybe you should start a post on the NY discussion board about why Long Island is almost "red."

[Sayid Linus]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

I was wondering if this was a troll thread and now it is obvious that yes this thread stinks like troll. Now you are talking about exit polls from a state with a voter discrimination, oops I mean voter id law. Heck with the voter discrimination law even the Amish and Mennonites will have trouble voting because of their religious/cultural beliefs in regards to taking pictures of themselves or others.

Not to mention the fact you fail to grasp the idea of a political moderate. It appears that people some of the "blue" states you are comparing to PA are very moderate, which does not mean liberal. States like NJ and MD may have a higher percentage of liberals than PA, but they also have a higher percentage of moderates. Maybe you should start a post on the NY discussion board about why Long Island is almost "red."

He's not a troll.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by Sayid Linus

He's not a troll.

I meant to say troll poster, not thread, which I just noticed from my last post. I know that the OP had a genuine question/thought, it just seems to have gone off on a tangent due to BajanYankee's blanket statements and lack of understanding in relation to or refusal to account for political moderates. Please explain how he is not a troll.